以色列的这个debka.com讨论中东事务比较周详，并做过很多准确的预测，包括在9.11前预测美国会进入阿富汗。下面是它对周日伊拉克选举结果的预测，转贴在这里存照。
Iraqi Poll’s Winners and Losers - According to US Forecast
From DEBKA-Net-Weekly 190 Updated by DEBKAfile
January 27, 2005, 11:44 AM (GMT+02:00)
Wednesday was the single most deadly day for US forces in Iraq ; 36 servicemen died – 31 in a helicopter crash and five in anti-insurgent operations at trouble spots. At least 25 Iraqis were also killed in insurgent attacks on party offices and police centers. In counter-strikes, US troops uncovered a round dozen bomb cars In the northern city of Mosul rigged ready for detonation on election-day in three days time. US troops also raided Hit in Anbar Province, where many followers of al Qaeda’s Iraq commander, Abu Mussab al-Zarqawi, went to ground in flight from Fallujah.
Despite the Iraqi Sunni boycott, al-Zarqawi’s imprecations against the general election, and the unprecedented level of bloodletting, an certain number of the 40,000 polling stations across the country will almost certainly open on time Sunday, January 30.
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That was one of the starting points on which Gregory Hooker, chief analyst of CENTCOM, the American command running the war in Iraq, presupposed his detailed forecast of election results.
This forecast, commissioned by CENTOM commander General John Abizaid, was first revealed by DEBKA-Net-Weekly 190 on January 21.
The second premise was that orderly vote-counting would likewise take place notwithstanding threats of sabotage.
The Hooker forecast is essentially a simulation exercise based on US and Iraqi intelligence data gathered in the last six months, together with estimates of opinion openly canvassed in towns up and down the country.
The level of participation and the results of this pivotal election will bear strongly on the Bush administration’s second term Iraq policy, the tasks facing US armed forces, the chances of the elected national assembly taking up its responsibilities, including the drafting of a new national constitution, and the prospects of an elected government exercising authority.
? Altogether 111 political entities – parties, individuals or coalitions – are running for the 275 National Assembly seats.
? A total of 7,785 candidates are registered on the national ballot
? Eligible voters in Iraq: 14.27 million
? Eligible voters outside Iraq: 1.2 – 2 million (only one-quarter of whom registered).
? More than 130 lists were submitted by the December 15, 2004 deadline for registration. Nine were multi-party coalition blocs while 102 were lists presented by single Iraqi parties.
? There are two major political blocs – Shiite and Kurdish:
The Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list submitted 228 candidates representing 16 Iraqi political groups including the dominant Shiite factions. Abdul Aziz al-Hakim, leader of the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq – SCIRI, heads this list, followed by Ibrahim Al-Jafari, head of the al-Dawa Party.
? The two Kurdish parties headed by Masoud Barzani and Jalal Talabani decided to run together on the Kurdish list.
? Both the Iraqi interim prime minister Iyad Allawi and Iraqi president Ghazi al-Yawar submitted their own lists of candidates. Allawi’s party, the Iraqi National Accord – INC, submitted a 240-candidate coalition, while al-Yawar leads an 80-member slate representing the Iraqi Grouping.
Projected Results
For elections held now, Hooker projects the following figures:
The Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list – 43.8% = 120 national assembly seats.
The Kurdish list – a surprising 36.4% (more than twice their 16-18% proportion of the general population) = 100 seats.
The Iraqi National Accord – 8.1% = 22 seats. (A formula is being actively sought to retain him as premier even if his showing is low.)
The Iraqi Communist party (the best organized) – 1.6% = 5 seats.
All the Assyrian, Turkomen and Yazdi minorities together – 4 seats.
All the rest – 5 seats.
The first conclusion reached by our analysts is that, while the leading Shiite UIA bloc can expect to be the big winner of the election, the real victor will be the Shiite cleric who assembled and founded the alliance, Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani and his inner circle. The slate he drew up of candidates to the legislature reflects his political aspirations and cunning: of the 120 registered, the first 60 are independents with no parties behind them and will therefore be totally dependent on Sistani himself for support.
Al-Hakim’s SCIRI will get no more than 14 assembly seats, while al-Jafari’s al Dawa must be content with 12. The former rebel cleric Moqtada Sadr’s following will match al Dawa with 12 places in the legislature
The slate he assembled also pushes pro-Tehran and Iran’s chosen men down to the unrealistic bottom.
Sistani wants to see non-clerical ministers in the post-election government but will insist on incorporating Islamic law as the basis of the national constitution.
The Kurds owe their projected big win to three prime causes:
1. The union of the two principal lists, which will help them carry districts in which each faction is fragmentary, like Iraq’s second largest town of Mosul and certain quarters of Baghdad.
2. Major concessions by Sistani in Kirkuk, where he endorsed the transfer of tens of thousands of Kurdish voters into the city. Quietly underway at this moment is the largest demographic transformation in Iraq since the war began, an abrupt reversal of the population displacement conducted by Saddam Hussein. Sunni families are being pushed out of Kirkuk to the Sunni Triangle and replaced by incoming Kurds. Turkomen, Assyrians and Yazdis gnash their teeth but have not the power to interfere in the Kurdish takeover of the mixed city.
3. Another key Sistani concession was his consent to local elections taking place in Kurdish regions for a Kurdish national assembly at the same time as the general election. In return, the Kurdish leaders have granted Sistani a powerful tool of government, a promise to join his Unified Iraqi Bloc in a coalition administration.
The Shiite cleric has little to fear from this alliance. He knows the Kurds are only interested in expanding their own self-government and will therefore not muscle in on the central administration with power-sharing demands. Their backing, however, provides insurance for stable Shiite-dominated government in the long term.
The Sunni Muslim minority can hardly be expected to sit still as the Shiites and Kurds split up the post-war spoils of power.
- Re: 伊拉克选举结果的预测posted on 01/28/2005
此预测者的姓名惨点！俺拭目以待。 - Re: 伊拉克选举结果的预测posted on 01/28/2005
我对结果不感兴趣，但真诚希望伊拉克选举成功，没有“人肉炸弹”炸投票站，就是成功。
伊拉克可以是南韩，也可以是南越。但愿美国人的劲没有白花。 - Re: 伊拉克选举结果的预测posted on 01/28/2005
没有“人肉炸弹”炸投票站，就是成功。
呵呵，按这个标准，降E得失望了 - Re: 伊拉克选举结果的预测posted on 01/28/2005
很可能。
自己关心的政治问题，总让我失望。不能再谈政治了，越想越伤心。
大家周末好！
adagio wrote:
没有“人肉炸弹”炸投票站，就是成功。呵呵，按这个标准，降E得失望了 - Re: 伊拉克选举结果的预测posted on 01/31/2005
今天一天不敢开电视看新闻。晚上鼓起勇气打开看了一下，8个“人肉炸弹”，死29人，估计中共的新闻会大肆渲染一番。但其实初步的情况看，不错。伊拉克人比我想象的要勇敢，也比我勇敢得多。去投票的人超过预期，具体数据还不知道。电视上有不少排长队投票，还有不少老百姓喜庆的场面。
今天突然有个保留我的中国护照的具体理由：看这一生能否等到回国去自由投票的那一天。 - posted on 02/03/2005
New York Times
BAGHDAD, Iraq, Feb. 3 - Iraqi election officials today released partial returns from Sunday's election that gave the main Shiite group, the United Iraqi Alliance, a commanding lead in the balloting.
Of the 1.6 million votes counted, the Shiite Alliance took approximately 75 percent, according to a provisional breakdown by The New York Times of partial results provided today by the Iraqi Election Commission. The voting - from about one-tenth of the 5,216 polling stations across six provinces, including Baghdad - shows that the coalition group founded by the interim Iraqi prime minister, Ayad Allawi, known as Iraqi List, was in second place with 19 percent. Of the other 109 individual parties and alliances that contested for the national vote, none appeared to have taken more than 2 percent. - Re: 伊拉克选举结果的预测posted on 02/03/2005
The Shiite Unified Iraqi Alliance list: predicted 43.8% = 120 national assembly seats. won 75% = 206 seats
The Iraqi National Accord (party of the interim prime minister, Ayad Allawi): predicted 8.1% = 22 seats. won 19% = 52 seats.
The rest each less than 2%, including the Kurds.
May Alluh bless new Iraqi leaders! They will need lots of wisdom to go through this. - Re: 伊拉克选举结果的预测posted on 02/03/2005
Agreed! They have a long way ahead...
八十一子 wrote:
May Alluh bless new Iraqi leaders! They will need lots of wisdom to go through this. - posted on 02/13/2005
伊拉克选举初步结果：
什叶派联盟－预计 43.8% 结果 48%
库尔德人－预计 36.4% 结果 26%
现任临时政府－预计 8.1% 结果 14%
其余－12%
投票率: 58%
什叶派联盟是一个宗教集团，但得票数尚不够单独组织政府，必须同美国支持的临时政府或库尔德人合作。临时政府比较非宗教化，但票数太少，在新政府里将难以取得领袖地位，除非美国人玩得动什叶派。库尔德人关心的是独立或自治。正在打游击战的逊尼派基本没有参加选举。他们的头脑在新政府里位置是什么，将是伊拉克是否有和平的关键。
当然，此次选举的目标理论上是成立临时国会制宪。今年底另有一次政府选举。届时主要的变数是逊尼派是否参与选举，以及临时政府未来几个月的表现，尤其是能否控制局面。
再次祈祷，愿真主让和平在伊拉克降临。 - Re: 伊拉克选举结果的预测posted on 02/14/2005
伊斯兰的庙宇将充斥着连续不断的做爱画面
大麻,流行歌曲
遮住面的女人在胸口画十字
小孩子张牙舞爪的吸
老人家实在看不下眼了!可是,他自己却没有能力离开
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