民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?
作者:龚小夏
2004年总统大选之前几个月,美国的媒体纷纷预测民主党的候选人克里将会入主白宫。当时美国在伊拉克战场上连连失利,阿布格莱布以及关塔纳摩监狱的虐俘事件让布什政府很是狼狈,布什总统在民调中得分一路走低,降到了百分之五十以下。克里既是越战英雄,在政治上又并不十分偏激,再加上他找了个南方出身的爱德华兹做竞选搭档,在许多人眼里,他的胜利几乎已经是十拿九稳。
殊不知在大选竞争的最后几个月里面,共和党成功地将克里描绘成为一个没有原则、没有信念、说话来回两边倒的人,甚至他在越南的战功也受到了质疑。中间派的选民们对于在战争时期选这样一个人来当总统失去了信心。相形之下,布什虽然看着不怎么聪明,但是却让人感到比较可信。在整个选举过程中,布什用一句话说服了许多批评他的中间派:“你们也许不同意我,但是你们知道我相信的是什么。”
于是,民主党人与白宫失之交臂。
2008年的大选,民主党是否吸收了过去的经验教训呢?
民主党人的爱情
观察竞选的专家们中间有一句通行的俏皮话:“民主党人去恋爱,共和党人去站队。”(The Democrats fall in love; the Republicans fall in line.)用这句话来描写本次初选的过程可以说是再确切不过。
在初选刚刚开始的时候,共和党方面是一场混战。七个候选人中至少有五个觉得自己有很大的胜算,经过了几场初选,麦凯恩、哈克比、罗姆尼各自赢了一到两个州。在“超级星期二”开始之前,分析家们都在说,共和党内恐怕一时半会出不来最终结果。可是,超级星期二刚过没几天,麦凯恩在共和党内就已经坐稳了江山。他原来最大的对手罗姆尼不仅退得快,而且马上转而支持他。到二月中旬,共和党内已经开始在统一认识,为未来几个月与民主党的对决作准备。前不久共和党募捐还比不上民主党,现在共和党人纷纷解囊,竞选资源开始集中。许多原来并不支持麦凯恩的人也开始为大局着想,迅速转变了态度。共和党人站队的确很快。
而民主党方面,超级星期二以前只剩了三人,本来人们估计不会出现当时共和党中的混乱。可是过去两个星期之后,希拉里和奥巴马的争夺却还处在胶着状态,并且短期内看上去没有解决的可能。两人各自的选民对自己的候选人都爱得要死要活,尤其是那些支持奥巴马的年轻人,看见希拉里的支持者就经常摆出一副恨不得将对方打倒在地的姿态。其情感的投入,真是可以用恋爱来形容。
民主党的支持者,尤其是左翼的民主党支持者,在选举的时候通常是非常投入的。在竞选激烈的地方,到处都能看到他们的身影。口号是他们叫得最响,牌子是他们举得最高,他们集会的场面也比别人都来得热烈。至于站队,别人站到他们一方可以;要他们站到别人那里去是绝不干的。所以民主党整个被他们牵着走的时候很多。
从整体上看,目前登记为共和党的选民大约有五千五百万,民主党人七千二百万,另外还有无党派人士四千二百万。 为什么选民比对方人多,积极分子比对方热情,可是民主党在总统大选中输的时候多,赢的时候少呢?这与民主党的激进选民不肯“站队”有很大的关系。
选民分野
在希拉里和奥巴马的争夺中,两名竞争者的选民群体相当固定。
奥巴马的主要支持者包括这样几大类:黑人,高教育高收入的男性白人,无党派独立人士,二十四岁以下的年轻人。他们中有很高比例的不去教堂者以及未婚者。也就是说,这个群体里面包含了民主党的知识分子和经济上层、黑人,以及受奥巴马吸引而刚刚或者临时加入民主党阵营的人。他们最希望推动的是改变(不一定有具体内容),最大的议题是反对伊拉克战争。
希拉里的主要支持者是:中低收入的白人,长期投民主党票的人,中年以上人士,比较虔诚的教徒,还有少数民族中的拉美裔和亚裔。这些人是民主党长期的基本群众。他们最关心的是经济前景,是如何解决次级房贷和医疗保险等问题。
仅仅就白人群体来看,奥巴马和希拉里的选民的差别在于前者的选民更希望改变世界的状况,后者的选民则更在意于改变自己的生存环境;前一种人或者因为有钱或者因为年轻,对经济形势并不发愁;后一种人则要靠辛苦工资吃饭并且养家糊口,所以对改造世界没有多大的雄心。
奥巴马的竞选运动很好玩,很激动人心。领袖让支持者们流泪,让他们疯狂,让他们崇拜得五体投地。奥巴马领着他们在一遍一遍地呼喊:“我们能够!我们能够!”能够做什么?上了台再说。媒体也跟着掺乎。对奥巴马的赞扬一浪高过一浪。电视上不仅有他的长长的讲演镜头,而且拍摄的角度也多是仰视,让他看着越来越像是个领袖。
希拉里的竞选运动总是有几分沉闷。这位女候选人似乎认定了自己要做这个国家的大管家,不厌其烦地对选民解释她的经济政策、医疗改革计划、平衡预算设想,年轻人听了几句就耐不住了。很多人于是就跑到了好玩的奥巴马那一边。
留下来跟着希拉里的,多数是那些有点阅历的成年人,那些年年都去投票的忠实的民主党人,那些仔细去看竞选纲领和施政计划的选民,那些不爱声响的人。两党都有这样的选民。尼克松在竞选的时候,曾经管他们叫做“沉默的大多数”。
这“沉默的大多数”中的民主党人,并不一定是民主党的铁票。就在最近的历史上,他们曾经三次大批将选票投给共和党:一次是1972年投给了尼克松,后两次是在1980和1984年投给里根,因为民主党中那些自我陶醉的空想主义者、那些夸夸其谈不切实际的人、那些不愁饭碗在政治中找乐子的人、那些极端的人赶走了这个党的基本群众。
历史的一课
1972年,越南战争正在进入最后阶段,年轻大学生中的嬉皮士运动也在进入尾声。民众对战争很是反感,激进派的反战运动呼声非常高。在这年的总统大选中,共和党的候选人无可争议地属于现任总统尼克松,民主党方面竞争的人不少。当时声望最高的,是来自缅因州的参议员和前州长马斯基。在一月份的民意调查中,马斯基和总统同样得到了百分之四十二的支持率。他在党内属于温和派,在普通选民中很有人缘。而民主党内激进派的代表、坚决反战的麦戈文在党内的支持率只有百分之三。当时看来,民主党的候选人非马斯基莫属。
俗话说,枪打出头鸟。马斯基的民调一上去,共和党就开始找他的茬子。一会儿说他咒骂过法裔加拿大人,一会儿说他的妻子是说话粗鲁的酒鬼等等。民主党内部各种与他有过节的人也就趁着这个机会时不时地给他捅上几刀。后来在调查水门事件的时候,发现了一批证据,证明当时尼克松的班子里面成立了一个叫做“肮脏把戏”的小组,专门去散布一些针对有力的竞争对手的谣言。
因此,竞选开始不久,马斯基已经遍体鳞伤。相形之下,原来籍籍无名的麦戈文就舒服得多。他参加过二次大战,立过战功,而且在民主党内资历不深,因此仇人也少。他给人的形象,是一名英俊、正直、敢言的战争英雄。反战的年轻人对他大为崇拜。媒体也很喜欢他,总是管他叫民主党的黑马,言下之意便是他有潜在胜利的可能。结果是他在爱荷华与新罕布什尔的初选中虽然没有获胜,但是票数却远远超出预期。之后,他又在初选中赢下了一系列的州。马斯基退出了竞选,麦戈文成了最热门的候选人。
正在麦戈文春风得意的时候,民主党内的元老们开始发现事情不对头了。当过副总统的汉弗莱当时是剩下的唯一一个有力量的竞争者。汉弗莱在与麦戈文辩论的时候,就指出他对民生与外交各个方面的政策除了一些空洞的口号之外完全没有实际的计划,甚至连讲话的逻辑都不对。但是这个时候已经晚了,麦戈文在党内的胜利已成定局。
那年的民主党代表大会实行改革,专门给予黑人以百分之十五的代表名额,另外也专门照顾妇女、穷人、年轻人。结果是,这个选总统候选人的党代表大会开成了一个类似于狂欢的大会。麦戈文当时感觉,自己真的让所有的人都团结了起来,让他们都高高兴兴。
可是民主党的传统选民却不高兴了。首先给麦戈文冷脸的,就是民主党最重要的基本群众劳工组织,之后便是犹太人和其他非黑人少数民族。大选到最后阶段,麦戈文身边剩下的助选们,只有那批热情的年轻人中的一部分。
不仅如此,在预选阶段共和党以及民主党内部的炮弹主要打到了马斯基、汉弗莱这些有长期从政记录的人身上。麦戈文这个战争英雄得到的,绝大多数是正面报道。可是到了两党真正对峙的时候,共和党人就不像他的民主党对手那样客气了。共和党将麦戈文在初选时对选民的荒谬的许诺——比如让联邦政府分给每个人一千美元,每人限定只能继承五十万美元以内的遗产——都翻了出来,又对媒体抛出了麦戈文的竞选伙伴伊格尔顿曾经有过精神病史的材料。不出几下,麦戈文在多数人心目中就成了个疯疯癫癫、滑稽可笑的人物。
最终结果是,共和党的尼克松赢得了五十个州中的四十九个州。麦戈文得到的,只有马萨诸塞和华盛顿特区。这是民主党有史以来输得最惨的选举。
民主党的基本群众将票投给了尼克松,但是却没有离开民主党。在这次选举中,民主党在众议院多赢了十二个席位,在参议院两个。选民们投给了自己的党,却没有投给党的总统候选人。
这次奥巴马有没有可能重蹈麦戈文的覆辙呢?这种危险是存在的。
种族因素
这次的情况比1972年不同之处,在于这次选举夹杂了更多的种族因素。本来,民主党的意识形态更着重少数族裔平权,所以黑人、拉美裔这两个占人口超过四分之一的少数族裔与民主党的关系历来融洽。民主党在比较富裕的所谓“模范少数民族”亚裔中也有大概一半的支持率。
虽然少数族裔倾向民主党,但是他们之间的关系并不那么融洽,尤其是黑人作为一个群体,与拉美裔和亚裔龃龉更多。肤色只是一个表面的现象,真正的原因是拉美裔和亚裔是以移民文化为基础建立的社会,个人奋斗和家庭责任是这些移民文化的核心价值观。因此拉美裔和亚裔对黑人社会中普遍存在的吃社会福利、单身母亲、高犯罪率等现象不以为是。从黑人的角度看,他们经受了几百年奴隶制的磨难,通过民权运动的奋斗,好不容易为少数族裔挣來一点平等权利,而那些非黑人的移民到了美国之后不仅享受和他们同样的权利,并且与他们争夺饭碗。这些年来,亚裔就不断面临被“踢出”少数族裔的可能。在许多地方,亚裔孩子已经不能享受少数族裔奖学金,亚裔雇员申请少数族裔保护也经常得不到批准。
自从六十年代中期民权运动以来,黑人就是民主党的基本群众。黑人虽然只占人口百分之十二,却占了民主党选民的百分之二十以上。在一些黑人集中的州,比如南卡罗莱纳、阿拉巴马,黑人选票能够决定民主党内选举的走向。与移民为主的拉美裔和亚裔比较,黑人有很好的政治组织,也有自己很出名的政治领袖和代言人。
在奥巴马刚刚出来竞选的时候,黑人作为一个群体更倾向于支持希拉里,因为克林顿夫妇与黑人的关系历来非常好。克林顿还曾经被国会的黑人党团封作“黑人总统”。可是竞选一开始,种族问题就不免被抬上了桌面。奥巴马知道自己需要白人的选票,所以非常小心翼翼地避免种族话题,声称自己是“团结者而不是分裂者”。但是,支持奥巴马的黑人领袖以及奥巴马的夫人却在黑人中以“黑色骄傲”为号召。在南卡罗莱纳州初选之前,黑人的动员者深入到每个社区。为了争取黑人妇女的选票,他们到妇女的美发屋去挂上奥巴马夫人的照片,对黑人妇女说:有这样一位第一夫人,感觉会多么好呀!黑人妇女也点头称是。原来倾向于希拉里的黑人妇女选票就这样大批倒向了奥巴马。
因为是奥巴马黑人,支持他的人可以随意攻击希拉里,支持希拉里的人却不能任意回击。她丈夫比尔•克林顿刚刚说了两句大实话,就被扣上了一大堆“种族歧视”的帽子。
白人背着奴隶制这个沉重的历史包袱。特别是民主党上层的白人,总是觉得自己亏欠着黑人许多。拉美裔和亚裔却没有这个负担。于是,在这两个族裔人口超过黑人的加利福尼亚,拉美裔选票的百分之六十九、亚裔选票的百分之七十五投给了希拉里。
麦凯恩对奥巴马?
民主党人在选举中谈得最多的是如何去动员更多人参加投票。年轻人、妇女、少数族裔都是动员的主要目标。然而,民主党的左翼却经常会忘记他们的基本群众,也就是那些从三十年代罗斯福新政时期就一直跟着民主党的中下层蓝领或白领工薪阶级。这些沉默的选民经常觉得自己已经被民主党忘却和抛弃。他们也许没有时间去组织游行集会,但他们却会去投票。
作为民主党中间温和派的希拉里如果获得提名,她能够得到民主党左翼——也就是奥巴马的选民——以及黑人的选票,因为这些选票不会流向共和党。但是,如果奥巴马获得提名,那么希拉里的选民就有可能投向共和党的麦凯恩。毕竟,麦凯恩这位越战英雄和久经沙场的政坛老将对中间派选民是很有吸引力的。
如果出现后一种情况,民主党又会再次失去白宫。
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/04/2008
麦坎再要联手鲍威尔的话,奥巴马的肤色“优势”也将荡然无存,到时候从十一月往回看,民主党是输在了起跑线上。 - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/04/2008
同意老瓦,这几天选情正在出现微妙的变化。说明媒体对奥巴马越多scrutiny,他的问题就越多。今天俄、德两州的结果,将说明一些问题。
克林顿对麦侃,克林顿赢面大;奥巴马对麦侃,麦侃赢面大。
对奥巴马抱有梦幻般的、罗曼蒂克的、理想主义憧憬的选民(包括一些受教育程度高的白人小资),最后将不得不接受无情的政治现实。
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/04/2008
嘿嘿,我要是共和党的,我就暗地里帮着奥巴马造声势,先赢了希拉里,回头再来对付他 :)
奥巴马和希拉里联手会怎么样?
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/04/2008
浮生 wrote:
奥巴马和希拉里联手会怎么样?
There is a crisis phone call to the white house at 3am. Obama and Clinton run to the phone in their Pajamas.
Clinton: What makes you think you can answer that?
Obama: Yes I can! Yes I can! Yes I can!
Clinton: (throw pillows at Obama) You want another pillow?
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
Well done, Hilary. She comes back slightly.:)
BTW, why Hilary threw pillows against Obama at 3 am? How many people in her beds? :) - posted on 03/05/2008
Hillary plays expectation game. Her campaign said before that she must win both Ohio and Texas with big margin. But now, she acts as if she did all that. Sure, she gained some momentum. So what? too late, too small. In terms of delegates, she did not gain substantially. In her own words, “only delegates matter”. I do not see any chance for her to shrink the discrepancy enough to win the nomination.
I do not know how does 龚小夏 draw the conclusion about Obama/Hillary vs. McCain. According to the poll from the media, I got exactly opposite. - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
Me too, I like McCain better than Hillary, I will vote nobody if McCain Vs Hillary. The more I follow Obama, the more I dislike Hillary, she is a woman so hungry for power.
I was pretty upset last night :-)
3mw wrote:
I do not know how does 龚小夏 draw the conclusion about Obama/Hillary vs. McCain. According to the poll from the media, I got exactly opposite. - posted on 03/05/2008
July wrote:
Me too, I like McCain better than Hillary, I will vote nobody if McCain Vs Hillary.
I was pretty upset last night :-)
:)
American media plays a "dirty" but paramountly important role in American politics - and amazingly the media shows its muscle by an intelligent way this time - all western intellectuals as far as in England hold a common hope that America is not ruled by some powerful families, as stupid as Bush's and as lousy as Clinton's, for too long.
If Clinton won, then these 2 families will govern the powerful America for at least 24 years - 24 years! yes, that's 2 generations and more than a third of people's life. This will do no good to a democracy country.
How bad, how empty could Obama be? Could be as bad as Mr Bush?? If not, America has nothing to fear to install this balck guy. Bush set the bottomline anyway. How good Mr Clinton can be? You can feel it yourself. :) - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
I was just joking about Hillary's "crisis call at 3am" and "the media should ask if Obama needs another pillow" comments.
令胡冲 wrote:
Well done, Hilary. She comes back slightly.:)
BTW, why Hilary threw pillows against Obama at 3 am? How many people in her beds? :) - posted on 03/05/2008
I was surprised that days before this Super Tuesday, Obama did not work as hard as before. He did not even answers questions. Not because he got lots of qeustions before. He was literrally not asked questions by the media, until last week. Yet, he answered, "I answered that before." He has been a good tennis player against Clinton, he always bounced the ball back within the boundary. However when the fairytale turns real, tough questions will come, more especially when he actually faces MaCaine, the middlename, NAFTA, Rezko, etc. are just the beginning.
A joke from yesterday: What can we say about Obama, we can't say his middlename, what can't we say between his middlename and "Obama is great".
There is no surprise, whatever works for Obama, it will not work for another 8 months. If there is no new enegery source, there is no momentum.
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
I was happy. Historically speaking all interesting women are hungry women. A hungry woman has the heart and the stomach of the President. Get my joke here, Linghu?
July wrote:
Me too, I like McCain better than Hillary, I will vote nobody if McCain Vs Hillary. The more I follow Obama, the more I dislike Hillary, she is a woman so hungry for power.
I was pretty upset last night :-)
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
Susan wrote:
I was just joking about Hillary's "crisis call at 3am" and "the media should ask if Obama needs another pillow" comments.
I know - most of people in England saw 2 Hilary stood together - a good talkshow - and the fake one just laugh like a rude idot - I myself thinks it's a bit insult but the authentic Hilary just took it, "Do I laught like that?". Impressvie. :) - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
Some people are critizing his religion, and it is a very sensitive topic for Obama, yestreday, when I heard he was saying that he prays Jesus every night, all I can feel: oh, my poor baby, you don't have to say it.
rzp wrote:
A joke from yesterday: What can't we say about Obama, we can't say his middlename, what can't we say between his middlename and "Obama is great".
- posted on 03/05/2008
The media bias towards Obama was somewhat due to the same exact mental fatigue towards the Clintons. I am curious, will Michelle Obama be worse as a hardedge first lady than Hillary? Isn't it ture people who want a fairytale prince as president also want a fairytale-like princess as first lady? Tough sale there.
The same logic as how bad it can be after we had Bush can be applied to any other candidate this run. Talking about the infamous stupidity of G.W.B, do most people know the grades/marks he got from Harvard B-school was actually better than those of Al-Gore?
令胡冲 wrote:
If Clinton won, then these 2 families will govern the powerful America for at least 24 years - 24 years! yes, that's 2 generations and more than a third of people's life. This will do no good to a democracy country.
How bad, how empty could Obama be? Could be as bad as Mr Bush?? If not, America has nothing to fear to install this balck guy. Bush set the bottomline anyway. How good Mr Clinton can be? You can feel it yourself. :) - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
It is the speculators who said that. Why would her campaign say that?
3mw wrote:
Hillary plays expectation game. Her campaign said before that she must win both Ohio and Texas with big margin. But now, she acts as if she did all that. - posted on 03/05/2008
You heard that only yesterday? I am not aware of anyone had critized his religion. This is so sensitive that whatever it came, it has come as a side kick. However it is something Obama has to answer or make a bold statement on. It can turn into his advantage or a showstopper.
For people like you and me, and most of us here, who came from different background of religions, who expereinced the conversion of faith. It is closed to natural to accept him on this. For others who have generations of reliogious upbringings, the level of comfort of acceptance varies a lot. Not to mention Obama's complicated religious background is on the extreme side.
July wrote:
Some people are critizing his religion, and it is a very sensitive topic for Obama, yestreday, when I heard he was saying that he prays Jesus every night, all I can feel: oh, my poor baby, you don't have to say it.
rzp wrote:
A joke from yesterday: What can't we say about Obama, we can't say his middlename, what can't we say between his middlename and "Obama is great".
- posted on 03/05/2008
I was right. Hillary made a stunning comeback yesterday. I had smelled something different in the last couple of days. It looks like my hunch did not deceive me.
By historical standard, this is quite extraordinary, especially after her opponent had swept 11 states in a row. Almost everyone, less the Hillary diehards, had begun to count her out. Those opportunists of course wasted no time flocking under the frontrunner's banner and jumping onboard the Obama bandwagon. From Obama's own vantage point, 11 straight wins should have given him more than enough momentum to nail this thing down. The fact that he did not, spells problems for him.
She still has a long uphill battle ahead, the odds are atill against her. In the end, she may still end up not being the nominee. But yesterday's victory is vindicatory for her, in addition to giving her campaign a much-needed shot in the arm. Her tenacity, vigor, and indefatigable spirit are quite impressive, not paling in comparision to her opponent. The other qualities that HRC has, on the other hand, Obama almost has none.
I am glad to be in the same camp with RZP. Let the media start gnawing its teeth and take a hard look at Obama. If it can make him, it can also break him. We shall wait and see how this whole thing is going to play out.
rzp wrote:
I was surprised that days before this Super Tuesday, Obama did not work as hard as before. He did not even answers questions. Not because he got lots of qeustions before. He was literrally not asked questions by the media, until last week. Yet, he answered, "I answered that before." He has been a good tennis player against Clinton, he always bounced the ball back within the boundary. However when the fairytale turns real, tough questions will come, more especially when he actually faces MaCaine, the middlename, NAFTA, Rezko, etc. are just the beginning.
A joke from yesterday: What can we say about Obama, we can't say his middlename, what can't we say between his middlename and "Obama is great".
There is no surprise, whatever works for Obama, it will not work for another 8 months. If there is no new enegery source, there is no momentum.
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
我不希望奥巴马赢,也不希望希拉里赢,一个没有根基、没有传统的人不应该领导这个国家,进一步动摇这个国家以基督教为根基的道德传统。即使美国需要变革,也应该是平缓的变革,才能苟延残喘它的世界霸主地位。 - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
What about Bush? He has 根基 and 传统 , but 美国 goes nowhere.
chloe wrote:
我不希望奥巴马赢,也不希望希拉里赢,一个没有根基、没有传统的人不应该领导这个国家,进一步动摇这个国家以基督教为根基的道德传统。即使美国需要变革,也应该是平缓的变革,才能苟延残喘它的世界霸主地位。 - posted on 03/05/2008
That is right, now it is the time that Obama will talk his plan in great details, not only just changing and hope which bring the momentum for him. The true point is he has his plan and lot of tasks are much reasonable than Hillary, just an example, healthy care.
Hi, guys, maybe we need to focus on their plans in detail now, not just empty talk. Now, I want to act little bit like Hillary, haaa
:-)
rzp wrote:
There is no surprise, whatever works for Obama, it will not work for another 8 months. If there is no new enegery source, there is no momentum.
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
功过要后人评说。当年杜鲁门也遭强烈批评,支持率极低,五十年后翻案。 - posted on 03/05/2008
第二个“超级星期二”获胜者
美国有线新闻网的政治分析家指出,希拉里当初誓言的在俄州和德州“卷土重来”,现在真的实现了,但这并不是她在过去初选中第一次完成“很难完成的任务”。在爱荷华州失利后,她在新罕布什尔州的不利选情下,完成了一次“逆转”;接着她又在“超级星期二”中奥巴马赢得数州的困境下,拿下了加州和纽约州的初选;今天她又赢得两场最为关键的初选,让自己重返初选轨道。
美联社评论说,希拉里在3月4日的初选中“东山再起”,她在赢得了罗德岛州和俄亥俄州初选后,又一鼓作气在德克萨斯州初选中胜出,缩小了奥巴马在代表席位上的领先优势,为角逐民主党总统提名注入新的动力。
评论还说,希拉里的三州连胜也结束这位前第一夫人一个多月来的连败颓势,就象她告诉兴高采烈的支持者那样,“我们正在继续前进,我们正在强大起来,我们正一路前行,直到赢得最后的胜利。”
美国有线新闻网指出,值得注意的是,希拉里在获胜感言中,特别强调了自己已经“赢得了佛罗里达州和密歇根州的初选”,不过这两个州因违反民主党的规定,提前举行初选而遭到制裁。因此,希拉里虽然赢了,但却未获得代表人票。
希拉里阵营曾要求民主党全国委员会主席迪恩重新考虑这两个州的竞选结果,但遭到迪恩的拒绝。如果把这两个州的初选结果计算在内,希拉里的优势将会超过奥巴马。
华盛顿邮报说,拥有228个代表席位的德克萨斯州初选,是第二个“超级星期二”的“票仓”,两位民主党候选人在该州展开激烈的角逐,得票率一直交替上升,最后希拉里以4%的优势获胜。3月5日零时51分,美国全国广播公司、福克斯新闻网和美国有线新闻网都预测说,希拉里赢得了德州初选。随后,美联社也作出希拉里赢得德州的预测。
华盛顿邮报指出,四州初选希拉里连赢三州和奥巴马一州获胜,两个竞选阵营会在第二天的竞选宣传发出如下声明:希拉里阵营将强调她已经赢得了所有大州的初选,而无法赢得大州的候选人,其领导这个国家的资格将受到质疑。希拉里竞选阵营还会传递这样的信息――她具有带领这个国家走出困境的经验,尤其是极为艰难时期,她克服了奥巴马在竞选经费、广告宣传以及友好的媒体宣传等一系列困难,最终赢得了选民的支持。
而奥巴马竞选阵营则会强调,他仍在参加民主党全国代表大会的席位上占有领先优势,希拉里不可能在接下来的初选中获得足够代表人票。奥巴马阵营还会强调,几周前希拉里在德克萨斯州占有领先两位数的优势,但现在奥巴马已将其缩小到单位数,尽管一直遭到希拉里阵营的负责攻击。
在结束了第二个“超级星期二”初选后,两个竞选阵营将把目光放在星期六(3月8日)举行的怀俄明州初选,还有下星期二密西西比州的初选。不过,两个阵营都会把精力集中在4月22日举行的宾夕法尼亚州初选。拥有188个代表席位的宾州,现在已成为一块最大最具诱惑力的蛋糕。
宾州一直都被视为克林顿-希拉里的“根据地”,再加上该州拥有一位坚决支持希拉里的州长,还有众多的白人选民及蓝领阶层选民,媒体普遍预测希拉里获胜的希望要高于奥巴马。难怪,希拉里在哥伦布市发表获胜讲话时誓言,将会借助这股连胜“东风”,去赢得接下来的预选,直到获得“宾夕法尼亚大胜”。 - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
还有这种事?
美国有线新闻网指出,值得注意的是,希拉里在获胜感言中,特别强调了自己已经“赢得了佛罗里达州和密歇根州的初选”,不过这两个州因违反民主党的规定,提前举行初选而遭到制裁。因此,希拉里虽然赢了,但却未获得代表人票。
希拉里阵营曾要求民主党全国委员会主席迪恩重新考虑这两个州的竞选结果,但遭到迪恩的拒绝。如果把这两个州的初选结果计算在内,希拉里的优势将会超过奥巴马。 - posted on 03/05/2008
Florida had 210 dalegates and Michigan had 156. Hillary won both States with big margins. Not counting these 2 States is a tremendous loss for her.
wenzhai wrote:
还有这种事?
美国有线新闻网指出,值得注意的是,希拉里在获胜感言中,特别强调了自己已经“赢得了佛罗里达州和密歇根州的初选”,不过这两个州因违反民主党的规定,提前举行初选而遭到制裁。因此,希拉里虽然赢了,但却未获得代表人票。
希拉里阵营曾要求民主党全国委员会主席迪恩重新考虑这两个州的竞选结果,但遭到迪恩的拒绝。如果把这两个州的初选结果计算在内,希拉里的优势将会超过奥巴马。 - posted on 03/05/2008
这个龚小夏的文章好像不够专业,不过也不能强求。
奥巴马还是不断给我带来感动。下面这段话是奥巴马写的,我贴在另一条线上,特意省略了他的名字,没有人注意。在这儿重贴一次。
==================================
今天看到一个法学院的学生写的几句话,最后一句话非常有意思:
The study of law can be disappointing at times, a matter of applying narrow rules and arcane procedure to an uncooperative reality; a sort of glorified accounting that serves to regulate the affairs of those who have power --- and that all too often seeks to explain, to those who do not, the ultimate wisdom and justness of their condition.
But that's not all the law is. The law is also memory; the law also records a long-running conversation, a nation arguing with its conscience.
==================================
奥巴马的竞选团队对昨天的结果早有估计,实际上差不多每次的结果他们都预知得不错。我的看法,无论结果如何,他们要是能够坚持自己的原则,不玩儿希拉力的fun part,铁杆儿的支持者还是很多的。而且这些支持者恰恰不是被忽悠这出来支持他的,与希拉力的攻击相反,奥巴马的支持者更看重未来的实质。
媒体总是要造事。今天早上坐火车上班的路上拿了一份儿本地的免费报纸,昨天的选举只出现在报纸的中间7、8页的地方,不到三分之一的版面。读者来信的地方,倒是有一个在DC工作过的读者,写了一封描述希拉力不合格的信。该报纸大概跟我是一个战壕的。但是更多的报纸大概不是这样的,只能说,每张报纸都是一个摸象的盲人。 - posted on 03/05/2008
美国有线新闻网指出,值得注意的是,希拉里在获胜感言中,特别强调了自己已经“赢得了佛罗里
达州和密歇根州的初选”,不过这两个州因违反民主党的规定,提前举行初选而遭到制裁。因此,
希拉里虽然赢了,但却未获得代表人票。
Obama was even not on the ballot of Michigan, how could Hillary claim she win
Michigan? Whom had she won? some body who did not compete with her? From this,
one can see how Hillary twists fact.
Please, please read following carefully. Don't be fooled by other's conclusion, instead,
use your own brain to judge:
"On the Democratic side, where neither Barack Obama nor John Edwards will be on
the ballot due to the disputes between the state and national parties, the results are
Hillary Clinton 48% to 'Uncommitted' with 28%.
The poll was conducted January 6-7."
Above is from this link:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/01/poll_tight_gop_race_in_michigan_hillary_ahead_of_uncommitted.php
I am so dissapointed. Why don't people just look at raw facts?! - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
I consider Uncommitted represents votes for Obama and John Edwards combined. I am so disappointed that you quoted from an early poll instead of the actual ballot.
Here is the raw fact from CNN. Blame CNN for calling her a winner.
3mw Wrote: - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
I hope to have a chance to cast my vote for a woman president--for the first time (voted for Gore and Kerry). - posted on 03/05/2008
Susan wrote:
I consider Uncommitted represents votes for Obama and John Edwards combined. I am so disappointed that you quoted from an early poll instead of the real ballot.
Wellcome more accurated data. I just did a quick search with google to get the information that it is a invalid vote and did not pay attention to details since it is a meaningless effort (for me).
I do not see CNN call her a winner. CNN said “No delegates” according to your post.
If you think it was a win, that is fine. - posted on 03/05/2008
The more important fact is Obama did not even campaign there for those two states, regarding to FL and MI.
3mw wrote:
Susan wrote:Wellcome more accurated data. I just did a quick search with google to get the information that it is a invalid vote and did not pay attention to details since it is a meaningless effort (for me).
I consider Uncommitted represents votes for Obama and John Edwards combined. I am so disappointed that you quoted from an early poll instead of the real ballot.
I do not see CNN call her a winner. CNN said “No delegates” according to your post.
If you think it was a win, that is fine. - posted on 03/05/2008
You want me to zoom it in for you? :)
All winners are called projected winner, in case you are asking.
There will not be delegates from Michigan. We all know that already. Yet knowing their votes would not count, there are still 328K people took the "meaningless effort" to vote for her. Doesn't that tell you something?
3mw wrote:
Wellcome more accurated data. I just did a quick search with google to get the information that it is a invalid vote and did not pay attention to details since it is a meaningless effort (for me).
I do not see CNN call her a winner. CNN said “No delegates” according to your post.
If you think it was a win, that is fine - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
I read from Times Hilary talked about a double ticket with Obama - she is on the top. In the current situation, any chance that Obama would like to be her vice? :)
I heard from some guys here keep saying Hilary is good at planning, and Obama has made good promises - maybe better for Obama to be the president and Clinton for the vice president. Could be a good team. :) - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/05/2008
这种话显然是政治不正确。
以基督教为根基的道德,你们可能认为很崇高,我却认为不过是一种自媚,在实质利益面前根本靠不住,就象布什那样。
相反,我认为社会主义理想很崇高,只要坚持社会主义道路,中国就可以超过美国。
:)
chloe wrote:
我不希望奥巴马赢,也不希望希拉里赢,一个没有根基、没有传统的人不应该领导这个国家,进一步动摇这个国家以基督教为根基的道德传统。即使美国需要变革,也应该是平缓的变革,才能苟延残喘它的世界霸主地位。 - posted on 03/06/2008
Now there are rumors that both MI and FL are considering a do-over in their states, so that their delegates can be seated at the convention. The Clinton camp, understandably, welcomes this idea.
Just for the record, neither Clinton nor Obama had campaigned in MI and FL.
Susan wrote:
You want me to zoom it in for you? :)
All winners are called projected winner, in case you are asking.
There will not be delegates from Michigan. We all know that already. Yet knowing their votes would not count, there are still 328K people took the "meaningless effort" to vote for her. Doesn't that tell you something?
3mw wrote:
Wellcome more accurated data. I just did a quick search with google to get the information that it is a invalid vote and did not pay attention to details since it is a meaningless effort (for me).
I do not see CNN call her a winner. CNN said “No delegates” according to your post.
If you think it was a win, that is fine - posted on 03/06/2008
相反,我认为社会主义理想很崇高,只要坚持社会主义道路,中国就可以超过美国。
Wondering if you are serious. If you are, then why don't you start the 崇高 dream by moving to North Korea? How about Cuba?
By the way, to over one billion Chinese, they have had enough with socialism. Period.
abc wrote:
这种话显然是政治不正确。
以基督教为根基的道德,你们可能认为很崇高,我却认为不过是一种自媚,在实质利益面前根本靠不住,就象布什那样。
相反,我认为社会主义理想很崇高,只要坚持社会主义道路,中国就可以超过美国。
:) - posted on 03/06/2008
昨天,风子给我讲了一件事,他说:
I just read the book excerpts from Making Waves and Riding The Currents in a recent issue of the ABA Journal. It's about "how one lawyer summoned the courage to leave BigLaw to pursue a career of conscience." The author, Charles Halpern, a Yale law graduate and an attorney with a big firm in DC at one time, founded the nation's first public interest law firm and became the first dean of the City University of New York School of Law, created to train advocates for the poor and disadvantage.
我本来不是很讨厌希拉里,甚至同情她。可她在这次竟选中的表现,却让我失望无比。我只看到了一个女人对权力的近似疯狂,歇斯底里的追求。而看不到她真诚柔软的内心。也许她有哪种所谓政治家的品格,比如永不后退,坚持到底,可她却没有打动人心的力量。而Obama,却显示了他‘青色’后面的本色, 比她正直,有理想。至于她当不当总统我都无所谓,反正也不是什麽了不得的事。媒体吗,反手为云,覆手为雨的,谁得势就得造点声势。So what?
真正的好总统,好律师其实都是人道主义者和诗人,像林肯, 我喜欢的律师 Clarence Darrow。 Clarence Darrow 被称为美国有史以来的最好的律师,根本是因为他以人道主义的心怀,做了别人不能做的事,而不是因为他是一个更好的律师。(当然,在他中年的时候,他也一度只为钱,为富人服务,也绝不是一个十全十美的人)
其实,Hillary不如Bill Clinton, Bill Clinton比她真诚。
苦瓜 wrote:
这个龚小夏的文章好像不够专业,不过也不能强求。
奥巴马还是不断给我带来感动。下面这段话是奥巴马写的,我贴在另一条线上,特意省略了他的名字,没有人注意。在这儿重贴一次。
==================================
今天看到一个法学院的学生写的几句话,最后一句话非常有意思:
The study of law can be disappointing at times, a matter of applying narrow rules and arcane procedure to an uncooperative reality; a sort of glorified accounting that serves to regulate the affairs of those who have power --- and that all too often seeks to explain, to those who do not, the ultimate wisdom and justness of their condition.
But that's not all the law is. The law is also memory; the law also records a long-running conversation, a nation arguing with its conscience.
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奥巴马的竞选团队对昨天的结果早有估计,实际上差不多每次的结果他们都预知得不错。我的看法,无论结果如何,他们要是能够坚持自己的原则,不玩儿希拉力的fun part,铁杆儿的支持者还是很多的。而且这些支持者恰恰不是被忽悠这出来支持他的,与希拉力的攻击相反,奥巴马的支持者更看重未来的实质。
媒体总是要造事。今天早上坐火车上班的路上拿了一份儿本地的免费报纸,昨天的选举只出现在报纸的中间7、8页的地方,不到三分之一的版面。读者来信的地方,倒是有一个在DC工作过的读者,写了一封描述希拉力不合格的信。该报纸大概跟我是一个战壕的。但是更多的报纸大概不是这样的,只能说,每张报纸都是一个摸象的盲人。 - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/06/2008
abc 改名叫政委,做咖啡的特聘政治指导员如何, 呵呵。
abc wrote:
这种话显然是政治不正确。
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/06/2008
如果你好好读Obama的自传,或者Bill Clinton的自传,你都会看到他们对Public Service的热情,Obama 在芝家哥南部最贫困的黑人区作了几年社会工作, 每年的薪水是1万五千。Obama 和 Bill Clinton 都有才华。Obama 是哈佛法学院校报的第一个黑人主编。
读Hillary的自传,就看到她心心念念往上爬,削尖了头袋钻营,她也真没有太大的才华,连依利诺斯州的律师执照都没考过。她是哪种有野心,有毅力,厚脸皮的人。这种人我平时碰到了都躲着 :-)
- posted on 03/06/2008
是70年代时的DC律师考试,她2003时第一次公开承认。她然后倒是通过了所在州的律师执照(当然那要比DC的容易的多)。First Black President of Harvard Law Review的确是他的亮点之一。不过他接受割地之礼脸皮也够厚的,而且目光短浅还没有class。在脏钱问题上这俩民主党对手之间半斤八两,恐怕是共和党的攻击点之一。
谈论宗教政治往往使人容易动气伤感情,没有什么意思。还是你的诗画好看。小曼到哪里悠哉去了?
July wrote:
如果你好好读Obama的自传,或者Bill Clinton的自传,你都会看到他们对Public Service的热情,Obama 在芝家哥南部最贫困的黑人区作了几年社会工作, 每年的薪水是1万五千。Obama 和 Bill Clinton 都有才华。Obama 是哈佛法学院校报的第一个黑人主编。
读Hillary的自传,就看到她心心念念往上爬,削尖了头袋钻营,她也真没有太大的才华,连依利诺斯州的律师执照都没考过。她是哪种有野心,有毅力,厚脸皮的人。这种人我平时碰到了都躲着 :-)
- posted on 03/06/2008
小曼去云南旅游了,明天回来。
谁也不是完人,但得有比较和底线。从法律上Obama没有犯法,他买不起房,有人愿意要那块地,一个愿打一个愿挨。 那个替他买地的家伙名声太臭, 如果是我买那块地,一点问题也没有。
rzp wrote:
是70年代时的DC律师考试,她2003时第一次公开承认。不过她同时通过了Bill Clinton所在州的律师执照(当然那要比DC的容易的多)。First Black President of Harvard Law Review的确是他的亮点之一。不过他接受割地之礼脸皮也够厚的,而且目光短浅还没有class。在脏钱问题上这俩民主党对手之间半斤八两,恐怕是共和党的攻击点之一。
谈论宗教政治往往使人容易动气伤感情,没有什么意思。还是你的诗画好看。小曼到哪里悠哉去了?
July wrote:
如果你好好读Obama的自传,或者Bill Clinton的自传,你都会看到他们对Public Service的热情,Obama 在芝家哥南部最贫困的黑人区作了几年社会工作, 每年的薪水是1万五千。Obama 和 Bill Clinton 都有才华。Obama 是哈佛法学院校报的第一个黑人主编。
读Hillary的自传,就看到她心心念念往上爬,削尖了头袋钻营,她也真没有太大的才华,连依利诺斯州的律师执照都没考过。她是哪种有野心,有毅力,厚脸皮的人。这种人我平时碰到了都躲着 :-)
- posted on 03/06/2008
[你们说的是这件事儿吧]
Obama Says He Regrets Land Deal With Fundraiser
Senator Bought a Parcel From His Neighbor, a Now-Indicted Political Operative
By Peter Slevin
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, December 17, 2006; Page A06
CHICAGO. Dec. 16 -- Antoin "Tony" Rezko is a political insider, an energetic Chicago dealmaker and campaign fundraiser often in the headlines for being on the wrong side of good government. Indicted in October on influence-peddling charges, he also has a habit of befriending prospective political stars.
One of them was Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.), who was offered a job by Rezko in the early 1990s while a top student at Harvard Law School. Obama did not take it, but over the years, the two men stayed in touch, and Rezko backed Obama's successful 2004 U.S. Senate campaign, raising money and contributing his own.
In June 2005, in what Obama now describes as a "boneheaded" mistake, Obama and Rezko's wife bought adjacent properties on Chicago's South Side, closing the deals on the same day. Seven months later, wanting a bigger yard for his $1.65 million house, Obama bought a slice of the Rezko property for $104,500.
After news of the deal broke last month in the Chicago Tribune, Obama said he had erred by creating the appearance that Rezko had done him a favor by selling him a portion of the lot. For the first time since he entered the national spotlight, the 45-year-old freshman senator found himself on the defensive, discussing a personal decision he had come to regret.
"There's no doubt that this was a mistake on my part. 'Boneheaded' would be accurate," Obama said in a telephone interview Friday. "There's no doubt I should have seen some red flags in terms of me purchasing a piece of property from him."
Obama recently donated to charity $11,500 that Rezko had contributed to his federal campaign account.
There have been no allegations that Obama, whose political fortunes are soaring as he mulls a run for president, broke the law or committed any ethics violations. He said he has done no government business with Rezko, who is facing charges in two unrelated criminal cases.
But leaders of Chicago watchdog organizations describe Obama's behavior as a surprising error in judgment, particularly for a politician noted for his tactical skills, his ambition and his support of state and federal ethics legislation.
"It's disappointing because there has been speculation about Tony Rezko, and whether he was crossing ethical lines, for a number of years," said Cynthia Canary, director of the Illinois Campaign for Political Reform.
Jay Stewart, executive director of Chicago's Better Government Association, said, "Being a lawyer, he did everything by the book, but there's a higher expectation of him."
To Chicago political observers, it made sense that Rezko tried to get close to Obama. A Syrian-born businessman whose fortunes seemed to rise and fall with his latest deal, Rezko was known for cultivating politicians, including Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) and Rep. Luis V. Gutierrez (D-Ill.).
Rezko created a real estate development company and operated dozens of Chinese eateries and pizza restaurants. After Blagojevich rode into office in 2002, Rezko emerged as a friend and close adviser. He recommended people for significant state jobs and, a federal grand jury charged, soon tried to shake down investment firms that wanted to do business with Illinois.
In one instance, Rezko and Stuart Levine, a member of two state boards, allegedly demanded that a firm seeking investment business pay a $2 million fee to a middleman or give $1.5 million to the campaign of "a certain public official," later identified as Blagojevich.
The company refused. Levine pleaded guilty this fall to federal charges and is cooperating with authorities. Blagojevich, who has not been charged, denied wrongdoing and accused Rezko of betrayal.
Chicago authorities alleged last year that Rezko set up a front minority company to win permission to open three Panda Express outlets at O'Hare International Airport. His nominal partner was Jabir Herbert Muhammad, son of the late Nation of Islam founder Elijah Muhammad.
Rezko and Muhammad settled the matter, which became public in 2005, months before Obama's house purchase. Without admitting wrongdoing, they agreed to end their O'Hare operations and were disqualified from the city's minority business program.
When Obama and his wife, Michelle, a hospital executive, decided to move with their two young girls from their Hyde Park condominium, they chose a spacious three-story Georgian revival home on a tree-lined street in the Kenwood neighborhood, not far from the University of Chicago. The owner had listed the house -- nearly 100 years old, with four fireplaces and a wine cellar -- and an adjacent lot as separate parcels.
The Obamas purchased the house, which had been on the market for several months, for $300,000 below the list price. On the day they closed, Rezko's wife, Rita, closed on the 9,000-square-foot lot next door for the asking price of $625,000.
Obama said Rezko, who knows the neighborhood, was one of several people he called for advice on the real estate market. Rezko told him he knew the developer who renovated the house. In a later conversation, Rezko said he intended to buy the empty lot and build on it.
Later, the Obamas bought a 10-foot-by-150-foot piece of the lot for $104,500. An appraisal put the value of the strip at $40,500, a spokesman said, but Obama considered it fair to pay one-sixth of the original price for one-sixth of the lot.
"It wasn't something we needed to have," Obama said. "It was something I thought would be nice, if it worked economically for him."
Rezko and Obama collaborated to build a fence separating the properties, and Obama has paid his landscapers to mow the lawn on the Rezko lot. Obama, who said city code required Rezko to fence the lot, paid for legal and design work to ensure it was done properly, while Rezko paid for the fence.
Obama said that he was unaware of Rezko's brewing troubles in 2005 and that Rezko sought no favors. He described himself, after eight years in the Illinois Senate and two on Capitol Hill, as careful to live within strict ethical boundaries -- refusing to allow lobbyists to pay for meals, for example, and reimbursing people for golf outings.
"I'm very proud of how I've conducted myself during the entire time I've been in public service," Obama said. "My hope would be that people come away saying, 'He's not perfect, but he owns up to his mistakes and tries to correct them as quickly as possible.' I hope they look at the entire body of my public service and would note that this is the first time anything has ever come up."
Stewart, of the Better Government Association, said Obama took responsibility and did not shy away from questions. If there are no further revelations, he said, "it's going to wind up being a footnote," but "if anything further comes out, it's a different story."
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/06/2008
Yes.
苦瓜 wrote:
[你们说的是这件事儿吧]
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/06/2008
谢谢wenzhai的美意。我不喜欢当领导,我喜欢当普通百姓,当反潮流战士。:)
wenzhai wrote::
abc 改名叫政委,做咖啡的特聘政治指导员如何, 呵呵。
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/06/2008
我很喜欢七月谈政治。 通过七月谈政治,可以更清楚看到七月美好的品德。
rzp wrote:
谈论宗教政治往往使人容易动气伤感情,没有什么意思。还是你的诗画好看。>> - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/06/2008
Hmmm.... a woman should not have any 野心. 野心 belongs to one gender, but not the other.
Now nice.
btw, is there such a necessity for her to get 依利诺斯州的律师执照? She lived in AR most of the time, right?
July wrote:
读Hillary的自传,就看到她心心念念往上爬,削尖了头袋钻营,她也真没有太大的才华,连依利诺斯州的律师执照都没考过。她是哪种有野心,有毅力,厚脸皮的人。这种人我平时碰到了都躲着 :-)
- posted on 03/06/2008
我真心认为社会主义理想很崇高。但不管什么理想,包括基督教信仰,庄子老子孔子的生活哲学,只有建立在科学的基础上才有坚实的基础。
因为意识形态问题,北韩古巴为社会主义而放弃市场经济这一经济科学,这是北韩古巴不成功的根本原因。
对我而言,移民是很严肃的事情,不会因为一个国家好就移民过去,我会综合考虑各种因素。 比如在要不要移民西方的问题上,我对中国的国家安全问题潜心研究了5年以上,后来得出结论,中国国家安全没任何问题。后来我完全放弃了移民西方的计划。
chorus wrote:
相反,我认为社会主义理想很崇高,只要坚持社会主义道路,中国就可以超过美国。Wondering if you are serious. If you are, then why don't you start the 崇高 dream by moving to North Korea? How about Cuba?
By the way, to over one billion Chinese, they have had enough with socialism. Period.
- posted on 03/07/2008
abc wrote:
我真心认为社会主义理想很崇高。但不管什么理想,包括基督教信仰,庄子老子孔子的生活哲学,只有建立在科学的基础上才有坚实的基础。
因为意识形态问题,北韩古巴为社会主义而放弃市场经济这一经济科学,这是北韩古巴不成功的根本原因。
对我而言,移民是很严肃的事情,不会因为一个国家好就移民过去,我会综合考虑各种因素。 比如在要不要移民西方的问题上,我对中国的国家安全问题潜心研究了5年以上,后来得出结论,中国国家安全没任何问题。后来我完全放弃了移民西方的计划。
这个很有意思。这也是我上咖啡店来的主要原因,能够听到国内新一代的声音。
当初我来美国真的是觉得若是留在国内,我无法支持父母的老年生活,他们折腾了一番之后,几乎没有得到任何养老方面的福利,连住房都没有。所以我一心要来挖资本主义的墙脚。那时候还没有安全上的考虑。
现在中国比美国有活力,我回去的时候深有感受。最终,人还是要有精神上的追求。民主党是不是能入主白宫对我来说不是问题,问题是我支持的候选人要有精神。我很可能不代表美国的大多数,因而我支持的候选人会败下阵来,人败了,精神还得在。来美国这么多年,第一次有点儿精神追求。
- posted on 03/07/2008
I just saw this link with great details about this.
http://noquarterusa.net/blog/2008/02/04/how-to-buy-a-mansion-you-cant-afford How to Buy a Mansion You Can't Afford By City Nell on February 4, 2008 at 5:12 PM in Real Estate, Michelle Obama, Barack Obama, Chicago politics, Tony Rezko
July wrote:
Yes.
苦瓜 wrote:
[你们说的是这件事儿吧]
- posted on 03/07/2008
我在这里是把她当一个人,根本没有提到性别的问题,就象我把Obama也当一个人,和他的性别种族都没关系。我已经说得非常清楚我不喜欢她的原因,她就是个男人我也不喜欢,就象我不喜欢布什。谈问题要先搞清楚在谈什麽。
她本来不想嫁克林顿,不想去阿肯色。 所以考的别的州的执照,我记得是依利诺斯州的,可rzp在上面已经说了是D.C的,也许我记错了,她是依利诺斯的人。但她没通过是个不争的事实,你自己做做research就行了。
当然,全美国人民都要选她当总统,我也没意见。这就是民主国家吗。
sands wrote:
Hmmm.... a woman should not have any 野心. 野心 belongs to one gender, but not the other.
Now nice.
btw, is there such a necessity for her to get 依利诺斯州的律师执照? She lived in AR most of the time, right?
July wrote:
读Hillary的自传,就看到她心心念念往上爬,削尖了头袋钻营,她也真没有太大的才华,连依利诺斯州的律师执照都没考过。她是哪种有野心,有毅力,厚脸皮的人。这种人我平时碰到了都躲着 :-)
- posted on 03/07/2008
我是正好相反:大学毕业后投入到中国热火朝天的变革中,折腾过了头,大病一场,
跑到美国来过清静日子。
到了美国我才发现周围的人有精神追求,自己有精神追求,开始对什么东西都好奇
都喜欢。国内同学听到我的和“事业”无关的梦想都觉得我莫名其妙,也没人理解
我生第二个小孩还要自己带小孩。我若留在国内一定会被改革的大潮裹携着走下去,
不会发现原来还有别的活法。
苦瓜 wrote:
现在中国比美国有活力,我回去的时候深有感受。最终,人还是要有精神上的追求。民主党是不是能入主白宫对我来说不是问题,问题是我支持的候选人要有精神。我很可能不代表美国的大多数,因而我支持的候选人会败下阵来,人败了,精神还得在。来美国这么多年,第一次有点儿精神追求。
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/07/2008
Susan wrote:
我是正好相反:大学毕业后投入到中国热火朝天的变革中,折腾过了头,大病一场,
跑到美国来过清静日子。
到了美国我才发现周围的人有精神追求,自己有精神追求,开始对什么东西都好奇
都喜欢。国内同学听到我的和“事业”无关的梦想都觉得我莫名其妙,也没人理解
我生第二个小孩还要自己带小孩。我若留在国内一定会被改革的大潮裹携着走下去,
不会发现原来还有别的活法。
我自我检讨一下,精神得太晚、太晚。:) - Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/07/2008
我看不见美德,我只看见酸葡萄。“走在街上,所有年轻漂亮的,都是我的敌人。”
abc wrote:
我很喜欢七月谈政治。 通过七月谈政治,可以更清楚看到七月美好的品德。
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/07/2008
那是苦瓜说她以前的事吧。
壹 wrote:
我看不见美德,我只看见酸葡萄。“走在街上,所有年轻漂亮的,都是我的敌人。”
abc wrote:
我很喜欢七月谈政治。 通过七月谈政治,可以更清楚看到七月美好的品德。 - posted on 03/07/2008
原则上说, 政治上有野心或者说有抱负没有什么, 就象追求其它事业一样, 各有所志. 但是在美国, 人们把Hillary的政治追求看成野心的偏见来自人们对政治的偏见. 对大部分人来说, 政治仍然是一种dirty business. 你要是真正醉心公共事业有很多其他选择. 何况8年的第一夫人,6年的大州参议员还不能满足你的政治宿求?
其实,克林顿也是野心非常大. 你也许还记得他任期最后两年社会上流传修改宪法让总统可以连续任期三届的说法? 那就是克林顿的人放出的风声,试探民意. 看看有没有请愿的可能. 我以前所在的一个城市的很有功劳的市长也是一样. 先放出风声, 呼吁越来越大, 最后真的请愿有效. 全市公投决定是否修改连任期限. 当然, 结果是以绝对的压倒多数反对连任. 功劳归功劳, 群众的眼睛还是雪亮的. 后来也查出, 这位市长的任期内也有很多腐败事情. 他要是再继续连任,恐怕腐败的事情更多.
sands wrote:
Hmmm.... a woman should not have any 野心. 野心 belongs to one gender, but not the other.
Now nice.
btw, is there such a necessity for her to get 依利诺斯州的律师执照? She lived in AR most of the time, right?
July wrote:
读Hillary的自传,就看到她心心念念往上爬,削尖了头袋钻营,她也真没有太大的才华,连依利诺斯州的律师执照都没考过。她是哪种有野心,有毅力,厚脸皮的人。这种人我平时碰到了都躲着 :-)
- Re: 民主党是否再次会与白宫失之交臂?posted on 03/07/2008
苦瓜was jokking around there, don't have to take it another way.
By the way, I don't have much 美好的品德 anyway :-)
阿姗 wrote:
那是苦瓜说她以前的事吧。
壹 wrote:
我看不见美德,我只看见酸葡萄。“走在街上,所有年轻漂亮的,都是我的敌人。”
abc wrote:
我很喜欢七月谈政治。 通过七月谈政治,可以更清楚看到七月美好的品德。 - posted on 03/12/2008
Understandable.
Gender is such a fundamental and essential element of our being we sometimes don't think about it.
July wrote:
我在这里是把她当一个人,根本没有提到性别的问题,就象我把Obama也当一个人,和他的性别种族都没关系。我已经说得非常清楚我不喜欢她的原因,她就是个男人我也不喜欢,就象我不喜欢布什。谈问题要先搞清楚在谈什麽。
她本来不想嫁克林顿,不想去阿肯色。 所以考的别的州的执照,我记得是依利诺斯州的,可rzp在上面已经说了是D.C的,也许我记错了,她是依利诺斯的人。但她没通过是个不争的事实,你自己做做research就行了。
当然,全美国人民都要选她当总统,我也没意见。这就是民主国家吗。
sands wrote:
Hmmm.... a woman should not have any 野心. 野心 belongs to one gender, but not the other.
Now nice.
btw, is there such a necessity for her to get 依利诺斯州的律师执照? She lived in AR most of the time, right?
July wrote:
读Hillary的自传,就看到她心心念念往上爬,削尖了头袋钻营,她也真没有太大的才华,连依利诺斯州的律师执照都没考过。她是哪种有野心,有毅力,厚脸皮的人。这种人我平时碰到了都躲着 :-)
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- wenzhai
- #1 老瓦
- #2 wukong
- #3 浮生
- #4 Susan
- #5 令胡冲
- #6 3mw
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- #32 令胡冲
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- #38 July
- #39 rzp
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