希拉里将个人野心完全置于党派与国家利益之上,这样的人才应该被戴上“分裂国家篡党夺权“的帽子。 我听她对伊战支持的讲话,毫不逊色于布什。
这样的人当权只可能比bush更可怕。布什一家与希拉里一家多次连任与一党专政并无区别。
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亚洲时报Muhammad Cohen/香港--- 5月6日(星期二),美国民主党将在北卡罗来纳州和印第安纳州举行党内初选。这两个州合计187张党代表票,是馀下的初选中最具决定性的一场。不过,这些都已经不再重要。与宾州初选相比,这最后两场初选之所以变得无关紧要,却有着截然不同的原因。
尽管希拉里4月23日赢得宾州初选的胜利,她仍未能阻止奥巴马在“承诺代表”票、总代表票、选举人票及所赢州(地区)方面保持领先,而后者依然是党内总统候选人的热门人选。
被奥巴马称作“打破僵局的胜负战役”的印第安纳州初选,将见证这位来自伊利诺伊州的参议员能否得到蓝领阶层选民的支持。无论谁赢得了星期二的胜利,都不会改变两虎相争的局面;也就是说,希拉里只有在获得党内总统候选人资格后才会放弃抗争,丝毫不理会这将给民主党及其候选人带来多大的损失。
在宾州的庆功会上,希拉里说:“有人认为我已经没有希望获胜,劝我退出竞选,但是今天,美国人民没有选择放弃,他们也应该有一位不会选择放弃的总统。”紧接着,她又趁热打铁,呼吁支持者们进行募捐;要知道,这个前第一家庭近几年的收入超过1亿美元。除了因水门事件而被迫辞职的尼克松外,何时见到美国总统选择放弃呢?
2月,战绩不佳的希拉里遭遇了不少要求她退选的呼声。在获得宾州胜利后,人们更别指望她会退选了。与冷静的奥巴马相比,希拉里的战斗精神的确让人钦佩。上周,奥巴马再次被前精神导师赖特(Reverend Jeremiah Wright)的种族主义言论“拖下水”,令他感到非常愤怒。事实上,赖特在去年底和今年初时的许多争议言论,为外界攻击奥巴马提供了丰富的“弹药”。
希拉里并没有说明:“美国人都是斗士,他们值得拥有一位战斗到底的总统。”她特别强调了“放弃”,但这不是针对选民,而是绵里藏针,向民主党领导层和那些“超级代表”发出威胁,这位纽约州的参议员将战斗到底直至成为党内总统候选人。
上周,包括民主党全国委员会前主席安德鲁(Joe Andrew)在内的“超级代表”纷纷投入奥巴马的阵营。他们呼吁,儘快结束这场提名战,使民主党重新团结起来。然而,在这个问题上具有发言权的党代表,均支持希拉里阵营。是遵守游戏规则,还是在两虎相争中走向毁灭?这是民主党亟需作出的决定。
赖特的再次出现,给希拉里阵营送上了不可多得的礼物。事实上,他们对奥巴马的人身攻击,已持续了数个月。希拉里说,共和党候选人麦凯恩有资格入主白宫,但对奥巴马不予置评。儘管奥巴马与麦凯恩立场相似,希拉里却故意扭曲奥巴马的政策要点,以便为无中生有的攻击提供辩护。她还在竞选广告片中使用了包括本拉丹等的图片,讽刺奥巴马将无法应付总统需面对的严峻挑战。
希拉里阵营还表示,与共和党的策略相比,他们对奥巴马的攻击仍只是“小儿科”。希拉里阵营的做法,并不是在给共和党人助威,因为对方靠自己也能挖到赖特和奥巴马募资经理雷兹科(Tony Rezko)等勐料。相反,希拉里或者会让奥巴马变得更加强壮,或者会抢在共和党之前将奥巴马击垮。
希拉里的攻击,成功令奥巴马的支持率出现下滑。这更为希拉里提供了说辞。她表示,若与麦凯恩对阵,奥巴马将处于劣势;一些民意调查也持有这一观点。在离总统大选还有半年的今天,人们从奥巴马身上已看不到2月时的那份希望与激情,而只有溷乱的思路。
难道去说服奥巴马退出?“超级代表”让一个得到多数“承诺代表”支持的候选人放弃,似乎又不妥当。但希拉里阵营又回击说,若选择支持一个在与麦凯恩角逐中会处于劣势的候选人,那民主党领导层也太不负责了。
希拉里说她面对共和党的攻击已超过10年,但这最多只说对了一半,因为竞选纽约州参议员,与竞选总统无法相提并论。在党内初选中都排在了奥巴马之后,难道希拉里与麦凯恩同台竞技时会表现得更好?
在全国大选中,希拉里还将面对共和党更勐烈的攻击,其规模远远超过了她在党内初选中所遭遇的情形。既然希拉里在履历中提到了丈夫克林顿8年的总统生涯,她将不得不承担共和党就此刁难的可能。如果希拉里被确认为民主党总统候选人,相信会有一间工厂将开足马力,生产出大量与真人大小一般的莱温斯基充气娃娃,以刺激希拉里。
除了再次批评克林顿政府应为911事件负责外,共和党人会以“我们没有再让国家遭到如此袭击”,为其反恐政策辩护,并把希拉里的从伊拉克撤军的建议描述成为恐怖分子“壮胆”的举动。她“顶着狙击火力访问波斯尼亚”的口误及作为第一夫人时无力推动医疗改革等,也为共和党人提供了额外的攻击目标。更重要的是,民调发现58%的选民不信任希拉里;这个细节,估计共和党人也会大加利用。
“放马过来吧”,希拉里一家说。这次大选是民主党人将共和党赶出白宫的最好时机,但希拉里一家却不愿看到别人成为党内的总统候选人。希拉里一家对重新入主白宫非常有信心,并认为这样的结果更加合理,当然是与有着黑人血统、阿拉伯名字、且不戴国旗胸章的奥巴马及妻子与精神导师公开发表争议言论相比。
在这场竞争,希拉里一家俨然成了焦点。他们不会选择离开;在希拉里宣誓就职后,他们才会回到华盛顿特区宾州大道1600号的旧宅(即指白宫)。就像演员贝鲁西(John Belushi)在电影《动物屋》中所说的“只有当我们宣佈结束时,一切才宣告结束”,希拉里的“放弃”言论似乎深得其中精髓。民主党人或希望在2000 年大选中重计佛罗里达州选票时看到这种锲而不捨的精神,但当时是别人要接替克林顿的总统职位,而不是希拉里要从别人手里抢过总统一职。
鉴于2008年提名战的特别设计,对希拉里而言,策略非常非常简单,只需战斗到获胜的那一刻。由于希拉里与奥巴马二人均未赢得足够被提名的2,025张选举人票,初选就摇身一变成了预选,而希拉里很可能在这一轮以微弱劣势而位居奥巴马之后。民主党全国委员会主席迪恩(Howard Dean)敦促馀下350名未表态的“超级代表”,在6月3日全国初选结束后,明确表示将支持哪一名参选人。儘管希拉里最近捷报频传,考虑到支持希拉里阵营将引发负面影响,“超级代表”或许将倒向奥巴马那边。
即便如此,希拉里阵营仍不会轻言放弃,直至8月的民主党代表大会。希拉里对支持者表示,“超级代表”也会回心转意。即便届时情况多麽不容乐观,希拉里仍有两大秘密武器:密歇根州与佛罗里达州的重选。
密歇根州和佛罗里达州由于不遵守民主党全国委员会的决定擅自将预选日期提前,因此1月的预选结果被宣佈无效。希拉里虽然在两州都获胜,但没有实际意义。由于目前和奥巴马的竞争非常激烈,希拉里一直认为应该按照1月的选举结果分配选票或者重新举行预选。如果不能奏效,希拉里将会使用“全场紧逼防守”的策略,在任何一个可能的法院提起诉讼,原因也会信手拈来。根据先前的法例,政党可制定自己的行为规则;但希拉里阵营绝对能找到支持自己的法官,因为克林顿当年提拔了不少司法官员。
漫长的法律程序,很可能会让官司在大选当日也难以画上句号,或者保证除了希拉里以外的民主党参选人都告败,而希拉里将确保在2012年稳获党内总统候选人提名。千万别以为,希拉里没这个胆子!
希拉里一家自信地认为,布什政府发动的伊拉克战争不得人心,而经济又开始陷入衰退,民主党的选民们自然会在11月将出于对国家与党的利益考虑,大力支持希拉里。但目前,我们仍未看出这样的迹象。有时候,民主党领导层和选民们甚至觉得,实在不值得与希拉里阵营继续僵持下去,乾脆把党内候选人给了希拉里算了。正如英语谚语所说的,打不过他们,就不如跟他们一伙,即便你对他们已忍无可忍。
作者Muhammad Cohen曾担任美国新闻署的驻外官员,并从事过新闻节目製作,着有《香港直播》(Hong Kong on Air)一书。
- Re: 希拉里、奥巴马继续僵持,美国民主党很无奈 亚洲时报posted on 05/07/2008
Obama wins N.C. primary - posted on 05/07/2008
In this case, even a split would not be a draw.
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s loss in North Carolina Tuesday night, combined with a tight race in Indiana, where the counting was continuing deep into the night, did nothing to improve her chances of securing the Democratic presidential nomination. If anything, Mrs. Clinton’s options for overtaking Senator Barack Obama may have dwindled further.
Perhaps the only real hope for Mrs. Clinton now is to wait for something to happen— some external event — that can shake confidence in Mr. Obama in a way that the episode with Mr. Wright apparently has not, at least so far.
- Re: 希拉里、奥巴马继续僵持,美国民主党很无奈 亚洲时报posted on 05/07/2008
昨晚想等INDIANA结果,实在熬不住了。早晨知“灭绝师太”希拉里赢。但昨晚第一次看到几周来OBAMA舒心自信的笑容,对比克林顿一家没底气的假笑,还是很爽。
“灭绝师太”要战到底,那戏咱也看到底。 - posted on 05/07/2008
胜利 wrote:
Perhaps the only real hope for Mrs. Clinton now is to wait for something to happen— some external event — that can shake confidence in Mr. Obama in a way that the episode with Mr. Wright apparently has not, at least so far.
I doubt anything like that will happen. It is most likely Obama will win the nomination regardless. However, that doesn't mean he will be the next U.S. president. First of all, can Obama unite the Clinton followers within the Dem party? I assure you he will not unite me at least - he won't get my vote no matter of what, and I am not even a Democratic. Secondly, the Repulican attack machine has not even started yet. Thirdly, will those in the red states who voted for Obama during primaries vote him in the general election? Probably not. Those Republican voters gave their votes to Obama in order to prevent Clinton to win.
Obama=Osama - posted on 05/09/2008
please enlight me why you dislike Obama, even compare him with Osama?
I doubt anything like that will happen. It is most likely Obama will win the nomination regardless. However, that doesn't mean he will be the next U.S. president. First of all, can Obama unite the Clinton followers within the Dem party? I assure you he will not unite me at least - he won't get my vote no matter of what, and I am not even a Democratic. Secondly, the Repulican attack machine has not even started yet. Thirdly, will those in the red states who voted for Obama during primaries vote him in the general election? Probably not. Those Republican voters gave their votes to Obama in order to prevent Clinton to win.
Obama=Osama - Re: 希拉里、奥巴马继续僵持,美国民主党很无奈 亚洲时报posted on 05/09/2008
我刚才跑到CND去看,有一条线关于奥巴马,看了吓一跳,真没想到有些中国人如此恨黑人。
http://www.cnd.org/my/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php%3Ftopic_id=57678&forum=1 - Re: 希拉里、奥巴马继续僵持,美国民主党很无奈 亚洲时报posted on 05/09/2008
其实,马坎也叫奥巴马Osama, 说他是穆斯林,据说这是他们能想出来的唯一打败他的办法。
时代不同了,老一辈政治家不再能领导新世界了,不管你愿不愿意,都要走下历史舞台了。克林顿时代结速了。全球经济必然要求一个比较和平的世界大环境,美国不能再靠武力取胜,而是要和平和谈了。 - posted on 05/09/2008
July wrote:
我刚才跑到CND去看,有一条线关于奥巴马,看了吓一跳,真没想到有些中国人如此恨黑人。
http://www.cnd.org/my/modules/newbb/viewtopic.php%3Ftopic_id=57678&forum=1
凡是不恨黑人的,大多数是那些住在白人社区,接受良好教育的白领阶层的白人。他们对于黑人的认识不过是从媒体上,而不是从生活中。所以那些人就比较容易受到奥巴马的骗。为什么白人中的蓝领阶层比较恨黑人呢?因为他们和黑人的社区住的比较近,还有和很多黑人员工一起工作,他们对黑人的认识是从实际生活中得到的。所以他们就恨黑人。
我为什么恨黑人呢?许多年前我的太太刚来美国不久在一家中国餐馆打工挣学费。一天晚上她下班回家刚出餐馆就被黑人抢了所有的钱。那家餐馆的老板娘信教,带我太太去一家中国教堂。教堂中有一位女士也是开餐馆的。一天晚上三个黑人去她餐馆抢店,抢了钱就算了,临走对准她开了一枪,导致她脖子以下全身瘫痪。她老公不久也得癌症死去。她后来的情形就不知道如何了。
凡是不恨黑人的,我建议你把小孩送到黑人学区读书,或者干脆搬到黑人区去住。不出半年,我保证你会决定不要投奥巴马的票。
我买房子一定要买在最贵的区,不为别的,就是为了躲黑人。
- Re: 希拉里、奥巴马继续僵持,美国民主党很无奈 亚洲时报posted on 05/09/2008
奥巴玛自己自愿到黑人区去工作,他怎么过来的?
黑人为什么抢劫?为什么暴烈?为什么那么多愤怒?黑人的问题越是复杂,我们就越是需要一个杰出的黑人总统。奥巴玛的支持者跨越国籍、种族、性别与年龄。
凡是不恨黑人的,我建议你把小孩送到黑人学区读书,或者干脆搬到黑人区去住。不出半年,我保证你会决定不要投奥巴马的票。 - posted on 05/10/2008
Obama rises from political obscurity to verge of history
By CHARLES BABINGTON, Associated Press Writer 1 minute ago
WASHINGTON - The amazement was on their faces. Hundreds waited for Barack Obama on that evening in South Carolina, 15 weeks ago, to claim victory — a surprising victory, surprisingly large.
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And amazing it was. It made it possible for him to stand today on the verge of being the first black person ever nominated for president by a major party.
One could guess the thoughts of the blacks and whites in that crowd: Can you believe that our state — South Carolina, first to secede and first to open fire in the Civil War — is now catapulting a black man to the front of the presidential contest in a year that bodes well for Democrats?
"Race doesn't matter," some began to chant. "Race doesn't matter!"
The cry soon gave way to more familiar chants of "Yes we can," and everyone in the auditorium surely knew that race does still matter in so many ways. But in a pinch-me moment, they seemed to realize that a barrier had been broken with a swiftness and certainty that even they had not foreseen.
Even more astounding, the man vaulting ahead of the universally known former first lady, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, had been a state legislator only four years earlier — a lawyer with no fame, wealth or family connections.
Now, the entire nation and countless foreigners are absorbing a moment that had seemed decades away, if possible at all. Smart strategists and rank-and-file voters ponder how Obama rose so far so fast, and theories abound. Historians will sort it out someday, but Obama's blend of oratory, biography, optimism and cool confidence come to mind most immediately.
It's not just about him, of course. If America can seriously think of putting a black man in the White House, surely it must also profoundly rethink the relevance of race, the power of prejudice, the logic of affirmative action and other societal forces that have evolved slowly through the eras of Jim Crow, desegregation and massive immigration.
Maybe the toughest question is this:
Is Obama, with his incandescent smile and silky oratory, a once-in-a-century phenomenon who will blast open doors only to see them quickly close on less extraordinary blacks?
Or is he the lucky and well-timed beneficiary of racial dynamics that have changed faster than most people realized, a trend that presumably will soon yield more black governors, senators, mayors and council members?
Presidential campaigns have destroyed many bright and capable politicians. But there's ample evidence that Obama is something special, a man who makes difficult tasks look easy, who seems to touch millions of diverse people with a message of hope that somehow doesn't sound Pollyannaish.
Rep. Elijah Cummings, a black Maryland Democrat who endorsed Obama early, says the Illinois senator convinces people of all races that Americans as a society, and as individuals, can achieve higher goals if they try.
"He says we can do better, and his life is the epitome of doing better," says Cummings, noting that Obama was raised by a single mother who sometimes relied on food stamps. "He convinces people that there's a lot of good within them."
And why should they believe such feel-good platitudes? "Because he's real and he has confidence in his own competence," Cummings says.
Without question, Obama is an electrifying speaker. At virtually every key juncture in his trajectory, he has used inspirational oratory to generate excitement, buy time to deal with crises, and force party activists to rethink their assumptions that a black man with an African name cannot seriously vie for the presidency.
A prime-time speech at the Democratic convention in Boston catapulted him to national attention in 2004. When his presidential campaign badly trailed Clinton's high-flying operation, he gave it new life with a timely Iowa speech that outshone her remarks moments earlier on the same stage. And a heavily covered March 18 speech about race relations calmed criticisms about his ties to his former pastor, although Obama had to revisit the matter when the minister restated incendiary remarks about the government.
Obama has a compelling biography, too. The son of a black African father he barely knew, and a white Kansan mother who took him from Hawaii to Indonesia, he was largely raised by his white maternal grandparents. He finished near the top of his Harvard law class, then rejected big firms' salaries to work as a community organizer in Southside Chicago, where he found a church, his wife and a place that felt like home.
But all those attributes don't explain the Obama phenomenon.
Other great orators have fallen short of the presidency, including Daniel Webster and William Jennings Bryan.
Plenty of brilliant people have tried and failed, too. Bill Bradley was a Princeton graduate, basketball star and Rhodes Scholar.
Intriguing biographies aren't enough, either. John Glenn was an astronaut and American hero, but he couldn't get off the presidential launchpad.
Jim Margolis, a veteran campaign strategist now working for Obama, thinks it is his blend of all these traits, wrapped in "authenticity," which makes Obama's message of hope and inclusion seem plausible, not pie in the sky.
Margolis interviewed many of Obama's Harvard classmates for TV ads and documentaries. They told him Obama "was wise beyond his years, and never talked down to people," Margolis said.
"He has this amazing ability to connect with people and understand their problems," he said. "And through it all, there is this optimism."
For a politician with only four years of experience at the federal level, Obama also has spot-on instincts, associates say, and a steely confidence in his convictions, in good times and bad. His roughest patch came after Clinton revived her campaign with wins in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and a renewed uproar over Obama's former pastor threatened to consume his campaign.
Obama rejected advice to criticize Clinton more fiercely, and went back to his themes of political and racial reconciliation. His solid win in North Carolina and near miss in Indiana confirmed his judgment.
Obama and his small core of longtime advisers also outsmarted the vaunted Clinton team by focusing early on small caucus states, where he racked up important wins. His fundraising has been nothing short of astounding, with millions of dollars pouring in via the Internet from people who never gave a politician a dime.
Obama fans often search for words to express their attraction.
"He just really electrifies you when you are listening to him," said Lena Bradley, 78, a beauty salon owner in Washington. "He has something that's leading him."
As ephemeral as "something that's leading him" sounds, it's hard to explain in more clinical terms his impact on people. But it's there.
As recently as June 2006, a lone reporter could travel with Obama in cars and small planes as he campaigned for other Democrats in state after state. On one such visit to Massachusetts and New Jersey, his charm was on full display before crowds of various size, age and ethnic makeup. He made teenagers guffaw by saying people pronounced his name "Yo Mama." He quoted scripture in a black church, and set every head nodding.
On a plane ride he talked with the reporter for an hour, on the record, with barely a hint of the nervousness or hedging that most politicians understandably display to someone with a pen, pad and tape recorder.
Before an audience of 300 people in East Orange, N.J., Obama spotted local resident and famous singer Dionne Warwick. He smiled impishly and sang, "If you see me walking down the street," the opening line of her hit, "Walk on By." The crowd roared its approval of his on-key ad lib.
Some veteran politicians also see "something that's leading" Obama, whether they can explain it or not.
Sen. Dick Durbin, D-Ill., a longtime friend and supporter, said "nothing was ever the same" after Obama's Boston speech.
Durbin recalls pulling Obama into a vacant meeting room in Chicago's Union League Club, where both had spoken on a Friday afternoon in November 2006. He felt it was time for his young colleague to decide whether to run for the White House.
"There are moments in life when you can pick the time," Durbin said he told Obama. "But when it comes to running for president, the time can pick you. You've been picked. This is your moment."
A short time later, Obama launched his candidacy. - Re: 希拉里、奥巴马继续僵持,美国民主党很无奈 亚洲时报posted on 05/11/2008
I don't interpret Clinton's latest remarks that way. Instead, I see Sen. Clinton trapped in an unforgiving episode of Iron Chef. Time is almost up, and she's got to make a meal out of the spare ingredients left. She's in too much of a rush to check if those mushrooms are poisonous. She grabbed the AP story listing the demographic groups that she is winning and ran down the list just as pundits have been doing for months.
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