Barack Obama/John McCain: Candidate platforms
High priorities: health care for all, ending the war in Iraq, social security/War in Iraq, immigration reform, pro-life/adoption
Abortion: Pro-choice/Pro-life
Capital Punishment: Supports capital punishment in certain cases/Supports capital punishment for federal crimes
Education: Obama spports a new school construction program to improve crumbling schools. Supports recruitment of a “new generation” of teachers, improving teacher pay, and improvement in early childhood education. Opposes school vouchers. Has called for a “STEP UP” summer learning program for disadvantaged children through partnerships between community groups and schools. Supports increased funding for Head Start. Opposes reauthorization of the No Child Left Behind law until it undergoes reform. Supports merit pay for “master teachers” but opposes merit pay for teachers based on test outcomes.
McCain believes state and local agencies, not the federal government, should be responsible for developing and enforcing academic standards. Supports teacher testing and merit pay for the best teachers. Supports charter schools and federally-financed school vouchers for students in failing schools; believes “choice and competition” are the future of education. Believes No Child Left Behind is a “good beginning” but needs to be fixed.
Energy/Environmental Issues: Obama pledges to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, with a goal of 80 percent by 2050, and make the U.S. a leader in the effort to combat climate change by leading a new international global warming partnership. Supports implementing a cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Pledges to invest $150 billion over the next 10 years to develop and implement “climate-friendly energy supplies, protect our existing manufacturing base and create millions of new jobs.” Pledges to double federal clean energy research spending. Supports efforts to reduce dependence on foreign oil, and to reduce oil consumption by 35 percent by 2030. Would require that 25 percent of electricitycome from renewable sources by 2025.
McCain has pledged to end U.S. reliance on foreign oil and says America must modernize the way it generates and employs energy. As president, would support “declaration of independence” from foreign oil suppliers and rely on technological innovations to achieve that goal. Supports expansion of safe nuclear power to address energy needs, while providing for safe storage of spent nuclear fuel. Supports development of flexible-fuel vehicles, along with alcohol fuels made from sugar, corn, switch grass and other resources. Plans to limit carbon and greenhouse gas emissions by harnessing market forces that will bring advanced technologies such as nuclear energy to the market faster, and implement a cap-and-trade system for utility or industrial plants that reduce emissions. Believes climate change is a “global problem that requires a global solution.”
Experience: Senator and attorney/Senator, navy pilot, beer distributor
Gay Marriage: Supports civil unions. Opposes gay marriage/Opposes gay marriage. Supports civil unions
Health Care: Obama’s health care platform focuses on a new national health plan that covers the nation’s uninsured. The plan would guarantee eligibility, provide coverage similar to the federal employee health insurance program, offer “affordable” premiums, co-pays and deductibles; and allow enrollees to keep their coverage when they change jobs. He would introduce a requirement for all children to have health insurance and pledges to expand eligibility for Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program (SCHIP). Businesses that do not provide insurance to their employees would be assessed a fee based on a percentage of their payroll. His plan would allow states to continue developing their own reform plans. He would also make employer health plans eligible for reimbursement of catastrophic costs provided the savings would be used to offset employee premiums. Obama also pledges to support disease prevention programs, promote quality and cost transparency and reform medical malpractice insurance.
McCain’s focus is on lowering health care costs to bring down the cost of insurance. His plan for affordable health care includes: allowing families to be in charge of their health care dollars, promoting competition between health care companies, promoting illness prevention, providing health care access to all citizens, giving veterans the option to chose their own provider, promoting alternative treatments, making treatment options and medical cost information public, reforming payment systems, supporting innovative delivery systems (clinics in retail outlets), fostering development of cheaper and generic versions of drugs, reforming insurance practices to increase variety and affordability, making it easy for families to purchase health insurance nationwide and across state lines, making health coverage portable from job to job, teaching children about health and exercise, and introducing public initiatives to stop the epidemic of obesity, diabetes and to deter smoking.
Immigration: Obama upports comprehensive immigration reform legislation that combines increased border enforcement with a path to legal citizenship for illegal immigrants already living in the U.S.
McCain was the co-sponsor of a bipartisan immigration reform bill that called for stronger border enforcement but provided a pathway to legal citizenship for illegal immigrants already living in the U.S., provided they learn English, pay a fine and have clean criminal records. Supports stronger screening of cargo at ports as part of border enforcement. Supports working with leaders in Mexico and Latin America to strengthen democracy and economic opportunities for their citizens.
The war in Iraq: Obama spoke out against the war in Iraq when he was a state senator in Illinois but was not in Congress when the vote to authorize the use of force was taken. Supports a plan to immediately begin troop withdrawal from Iraq at a pace of one or two brigades a month, to be completed by the end of 2008. Has called for a new constitutional convention in Iraq, to be convened with the United Nations.
McCain voted in favor of the resolution authorizing the use of force in Iraq. He disagreed with the Bush administration’s management of the war and called for former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld’s ouster, arguing that the U.S. had not committed a sufficient number of troops to the conflict. Supported the surge of additional troops to clear and hold insurgent strongholds, provide security for rebuilding local institutions and economies, halt sectarian violence in Baghdad and disarm militias, dismantle al Qaeda, train the Iraqi Army; and to embed American personnel in Iraqi police units. McCain’s strategy also includes strengthening the Iraqi armed forces and police, and accelerating political and economic reconstruction. He opposes adoption of a timetable for withdrawal.
Social Security: Obama opposes privatization of Social Security. Has pledged to take steps to keep Social Security and Medicare solvent. Promises to amend federal bankruptcy laws to keep companies from choosing bankruptcy to avoid private pension obligations. Promises to eliminate the income tax for seniors who earn less than $50,000 a year.
McCain calls for bipartisan reform of America’s entitlement programs, including Social Security. Says he is “unalterably opposed” to raising taxes to finance Social Security but says everything must be on the table. Supports plan to subsidize current system with personal accounts.
Stem Cell Research: Obama supports expansion of federally-funded stem cell research, including embryonic stem cell research.
McCain supports federally-funded stem cell research on existing lines of stem cells. Opposes creation of human embryos for purposes of research.
Taxes and Budget issues: Obama supports repeal of tax cuts for upper income earners to pay for health care. Opposes repeal of the estate tax.
McCain supports the repeal of the Alternative Minimum Tax. Supports making the Bush administration’s income and investment tax cuts permanent. Promises to increase transparency in government spending and take aim at “wasteful” “pork barrel” spending. Has called for requirement of a 3/5 vote of Congress to raise taxes. Supports ban on Internet and cell phone taxes.
- Re: 立此存照:Barack Obama/John McCain: Candidate platformsposted on 06/05/2008
We should start LM's debeats from here :-) - posted on 06/06/2008
只是资料,有个大概念也好:
-------------------------------
General election competitive states
An analysis of the 50 states and their possible roles in 2008
Battleground states
Colorado
Electoral votes: 9
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 5.
Of note: Population growth and Hispanic voters give Democrats hope.
Florida
Electoral votes: 27
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 5.
Of note: Always a hard-fought state given its large cache of votes.
Iowa
Electoral votes: 7
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 1.
Of note: High Democratic priority.
Michigan
Electoral votes: 17
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 3.
Of note: McCain hopes Reagan Democrats and independents help despite a dreadful economy.
Minnesota
Electoral votes: 10
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 3.
Of note: One of McCain's top targets with a Republican governor.
Missouri
Electoral votes: 11
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 7.
Of note: A perennial competitive state.
Nevada
Electoral votes: 5
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 2.
Of note: Another Western state Democrats aim to pick up.
New Hampshire
Electoral votes: 4
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 1.
Of note: McCain is beloved; the state made him in 2000 and saved him in 2008.
New Mexico
Electoral votes: 5
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 1.
Of note: Democrats hope Hispanics and new residents help here too.
Ohio
Electoral votes: 20
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 2.
Of note: Recent GOP statewide defeats may make this bellwether poised for a switch.
Oregon
Electoral votes: 7
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 4.
Of note: McCain's independent streak and environmental focus could be appealing here.
Pennsylvania
Electoral votes: 21
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 3.
Of note: Republicans see a chance, given McCain's broad appeal.
Virginia
Electoral votes: 13
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 9.
Of note: Democrats see opportunity with Obama.
Wisconsin
Electoral votes: 10
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 1.
Of note: Another Great Lakes state McCain is targetin
Wildcard states
California
Electoral votes: 55
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 10.
Of note: McCain talks big, but a Republican hasn't won it since 1988.
Delaware
Electoral votes: 3
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 7.
Of note: Among coastal states McCain may have an outside shot at if the tide turns toward the GOP.
Georgia
Electoral votes: 15
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 17.
Of note: Democrats hope Obama's draw among blacks makes this competitive.
Louisiana
Electoral votes: 9
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 15.
Of note: Democrats claim blacks would help Obama here.
Maine
Electoral votes: 4
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 9.
Of note: McCain's fight against climate change and rebel reputation give him hope.
Mississippi
Electoral votes: 6
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 19.
Of note: Another state where Democrats say Obama could benefit from blacks.
Montana
Electoral votes: 3
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 20.
Of note: The state last voted Democratic in 1992 but now has a Democratic governor.
New Jersey
Electoral votes: 15
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 7.
Of note: McCain's broad appeal makes this attractive to Republicans.
North Carolina
Electoral votes: 15
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 12.
Of note: Democrats see an opportunity with Obama.
Washington
Electoral votes: 11
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 7.
Of note: Another where McCain's moderate image could help.
Likely Republican
Alabama
Electoral votes: 9
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 25.
Alaska
Electoral votes: 3
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 25.
Arizona
Electoral votes: 10
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 11.
Arkansas
Electoral votes: 6
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 9.
Idaho
Electoral votes: 4
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 38.
Indiana
Electoral votes: 11
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 21.
Kansas
Electoral votes: 6
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 25.
Kentucky
Electoral votes: 8
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 20.
Nebraska
Electoral votes: 5
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 33.
North Dakota
Electoral votes: 3
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 28.
Oklahoma
Electoral votes: 7
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 32.
South Carolina
Electoral votes: 8
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 17.
South Dakota
Electoral votes: 3
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 22.
Tennessee
Electoral votes: 11
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 14.
Texas
Electoral votes: 34
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 23.
Utah
Electoral votes: 5
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 46.
West Virginia
Electoral votes: 5
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 13.
Wyoming
Electoral votes: 3
Margin of victory in 2004: Bush by 40.
Likely Democratic
Connecticut
Electoral votes: 7
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 10.
District of Columbia
Electoral votes: 3
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 80.
Hawaii
Electoral votes: 5
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 9.
Illinois
Electoral votes: 21
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 11.
Maryland
Electoral votes: 10
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 13.
Massachusetts
Electoral votes: 12
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 25.
New York
Electoral votes: 31
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 18.
Rhode Island
Electoral votes: 4
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 20.
Vermont
Electoral votes: 3
Margin of victory in 2004: Kerry by 20.
- Re: 立此存照:Barack Obama/John McCain: Candidate platformsposted on 06/06/2008
我永远搞不清楚美国大选是如何数选票的, 有人知道吗?请教。 - posted on 06/06/2008
美国总统选举是间接选举。每州有一个选举人团(electoral college),人数相当于该州在联邦国会两院的议员总数。选举时,人民投票给总统候选人,但实际上是投票给承诺服从人民意志的选举人团。传统上,如果某候选人得票过半,则获得该州选举人团的全部票数,虽然根据法律选举人团成员可以根据自己的意愿投票。如果某候选人在全国范围内得到过半的选举人团票数,则获选为总统。所以总统竞选时注意力主要放在选举人团人数较多的州。
July wrote:
我永远搞不清楚美国大选是如何数选票的, 有人知道吗?请教。 - posted on 06/06/2008
八先生也犯这个错误,说“美国总统选举是间接选举”。美国总统选举是地地道道的直接选举。唯一不同的是,选票的确是按州加权了的(以八先生说的方式)。
为什么是“地地道道的直接选举”?每一张总统选举的选票上,印的都是总统候选人的名字,选民是在直接投某个总统候选人的票。选举人团那个会,还开吗?无论开不开,毫无意义,因为投票当日,CNN和其它新闻机构,早已经宣布当选人。
八十一子 wrote:
美国总统选举是间接选举。每州有一个选举人团(electoral college),人数相当于该州在联邦国会两院的议员总数。选举时,人民投票给总统候选人,但实际上是投票给承诺服从人民意志的选举人团。传统上,如果某候选人得票过半,则获得该州选举人团的全部票数,虽然根据法律选举人团成员可以根据自己的意愿投票。如果某候选人在全国范围内得到过半的选举人团票数,则获选为总统。所以总统竞选时注意力主要放在选举人团人数较多的州。
July wrote:
我永远搞不清楚美国大选是如何数选票的, 有人知道吗?请教。 - posted on 06/06/2008
是。直接间接,词汇而已。如果是百分之百直接,那么就直接计算选票好了。
选举人团的好处是给了每个州两张额外的选举人票,增加了小州的分量,保护了人口较少的小州的利益。
有没有人知道选举人团的历史沿革?
mf wrote:
八先生也犯这个错误,说“美国总统选举是间接选举”。美国总统选举是地地道道的直接选举。唯一不同的是,选票的确是按州加权了的(以八先生说的方式)。
为什么是“地地道道的直接选举”?每一张总统选举的选票上,印的都是总统候选人的名字,选民是在直接投某个总统候选人的票。选举人团那个会,还开吗?无论开不开,毫无意义,因为投票当日,CNN和其它新闻机构,早已经宣布当选人。
八十一子 wrote:
美国总统选举是间接选举。每州有一个选举人团(electoral college),人数相当于该州在联邦国会两院的议员总数。选举时,人民投票给总统候选人,但实际上是投票给承诺服从人民意志的选举人团。传统上,如果某候选人得票过半,则获得该州选举人团的全部票数,虽然根据法律选举人团成员可以根据自己的意愿投票。如果某候选人在全国范围内得到过半的选举人团票数,则获选为总统。所以总统竞选时注意力主要放在选举人团人数较多的州。
July wrote:
我永远搞不清楚美国大选是如何数选票的, 有人知道吗?请教。 - posted on 06/06/2008
electoral college
the system by which the president and vice president of the United States are chosen. It was devised by the framers of the United States Constitution to provide a method of election that was feasible, desirable, and consistent with a republican form of government. For a table of the results of U.S. presidential elections, see below.
History and operation
During most of the Constitutional Convention, presidential selection was vested in the legislature. The electoral college was proposed near the end of the convention by the Committee on Unfinished Parts, chaired by David Brearley of New Jersey, to provide a system that would select the most qualified president and vice president. Historians have suggested a variety of reasons for the adoption of the electoral college, including concerns about the separation of powers and the relationship between the executive and legislative branches, the balance between small and large states, slavery, and the perceived dangers of direct democracy. One supporter of the electoral college, Alexander Hamilton, argued that while it might not be perfect, it was “at least excellent.”
Article II, Section 1, of the Constitution stipulated that states could select electors in any manner they desired and in a number equal to their congressional representation (senators plus representatives). (The Twenty-Third Amendment, adopted in 1961, provided electoral college representation for Washington, D.C.) The electors would then meet and vote for two people, at least one of whom could not be an inhabitant of their state. Under the original plan, the person receiving the largest number of votes, provided it was a majority of the number of electors, would be elected president, and the person with the second largest number of votes would become vice president. If no one received a majority, the presidency of the United States would be decided by the House of Representatives, voting by states and choosing from among the top five candidates in the electoral vote. A tie for vice president would be broken by the Senate. Despite the Convention's rejection of a direct popular vote as unwise and unworkable, the initial public reaction to the electoral college system was favourable. The major issue of concern regarding the presidency during the debate over ratification of the Constitution was not the method of selection but the president's unlimited eligibility for reelection.
The development of national political parties toward the end of the 18th century provided the new system with its first major challenge. Informal congressional caucuses, organized along party lines, selected presidential nominees. Electors, chosen by state legislatures mostly on the basis of partisan inclination, were not expected to exercise independent judgment when voting. So strong were partisan loyalties in 1800 that all the Democratic-Republican electors voted for their party's candidates, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr. Since the framers had not anticipated party-line voting and there was no mechanism for indicating a separate choice for president and vice president, the tie had to be broken by the Federalist-controlled House of Representatives. The election of Jefferson after 36 ballots led to the adoption of the Twelfth Amendment in 1804, which specified separate ballots for president and vice president and reduced the number of candidates from which the House could choose from five to three.
The development of political parties coincided with the expansion of popular choice. By 1836 all states selected their electors by direct popular vote except South Carolina, which did so only after the American Civil War. In choosing electors, most states adopted a general-ticket system in which slates of partisan electors were selected on the basis of a statewide vote. Thus, the winner of a state's popular vote would win its entire electoral vote. Only Maine and Nebraska have chosen to deviate from this method, instead allocating electoral votes to the victor in each House district and a two-electoral-vote bonus to the statewide winner. The winner-take-all system generally favoured major parties over minor parties, large states over small states, and cohesive voting groups concentrated in large states over those that were more diffusely dispersed across the country.
Arguments for and against the electoral college
One of the most troubling aspects of the electoral college system is the possibility that the winner might not be the candidate with the most popular votes. Three presidents—Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888, and George W. Bush in 2000—were elected with fewer popular votes than their opponents, and Andrew Jackson lost to John Quincy Adams in the House of Representatives after winning a plurality of the popular and electoral vote in 1824. In 18 elections between 1824 and 2000, presidents were elected without popular majorities—including Abraham Lincoln, who won election in 1860 with under 40 percent of the national vote. During much of the 20th century, however, the effect of the general ticket system was to exaggerate the popular vote, not reverse it. For example, in 1980 Ronald Reagan won just over 50 percent of the popular vote and 91 percent of the electoral vote; in 1988 George Bush received 53 percent of the popular vote and 79 percent of the electoral vote; and in 1992 and 1996 William J. Clinton won 43 and 49 percent of the popular vote, respectively, and 69 and 70 percent of the electoral vote. Third-party candidates with broad national support are generally penalized in the electoral college—as was Ross Perot, who won 19 percent of the popular vote in 1992 and no electoral votes—though candidates with geographically concentrated support—such as Dixiecrat candidate Strom Thurmond, who won 39 electoral votes in 1948 with just over 2 percent of the national vote—are occasionally able to win electoral votes.
The divergence between popular and electoral votes indicates some of the principal advantages and disadvantages of the electoral college system. Many who favour the system maintain that it provides presidents with a special federative majority and a broad national mandate for governing, unifying the two major parties across the country and requiring broad geographic support to win the presidency. In addition, they argue that the electoral college protects the interests of small states and sparsely populated areas, which they claim would be ignored if the president was directly elected. Opponents, however, argue that the potential for an undemocratic outcome—in which the winner of the popular vote loses the electoral vote—the bias against third parties and independent candidates, the disincentive for voter turnout in states where one of the parties is clearly dominant, and the possibility of a “faithless” elector who votes for a candidate other than the one to whom he is pledged make the electoral college outmoded and undesirable. Many opponents advocate eliminating the electoral college altogether and replacing it with a direct popular vote. Their position has been buttressed by public opinion polls, which regularly show that Americans prefer a popular vote to the electoral college system. Other possible reforms include a district plan, similar to those used in Maine and Nebraska, which would allocate electoral votes by legislative district rather than at the statewide level; and a proportional plan, which would assign electoral votes on the basis of the percentage of popular votes a candidate received. Supporters of the electoral college contend that its longevity has proven its merit and that previous attempts to reform the system have been unsuccessful.
In 2000 George W. Bush's narrow 271–266 electoral college victory over Al Gore, who won the nationwide popular vote by more than 500,000 votes, prompted renewed calls for the abolition of the electoral college. Doing so, however, would require adopting a constitutional amendment by a two-thirds vote of both chambers of Congress and ratification by three-fourths of the states. Because many smaller states fear that eliminating the electoral college would reduce their electoral influence, adoption of such an amendment is considered difficult and unlikely.
Stephen Wayne
Additional Reading
Lawrence D. Longley and Neal R. Peirce, The Electoral College Primer 2000 (1999), is an excellent overview of the history, operation, and biases of the electoral college system. A brief but clear description of the system is Walter Berns (ed.), After the People Vote: A Guide to the Electoral College, rev. and enlarged ed. (1992). Critical discussion appears in Judith A. Best, The Choice of the People?: Debating the Electoral College (1996); and David W. Abbott and James P. Levine, Wrong Winner: The Coming Debacle in the Electoral College (1991). - posted on 06/06/2008
不过说“地地道道的直接选举”也不准确,要不然2000年戈尔就当选总统了。
选举人团会上,历史上也有选举人反悔选了对手的事例,只是没起决定作用。
mf wrote:
八先生也犯这个错误,说“美国总统选举是间接选举”。美国总统选举是地地道道的直接选举。唯一不同的是,选票的确是按州加权了的(以八先生说的方式)。
为什么是“地地道道的直接选举”?每一张总统选举的选票上,印的都是总统候选人的名字,选民是在直接投某个总统候选人的票。选举人团那个会,还开吗?无论开不开,毫无意义,因为投票当日,CNN和其它新闻机构,早已经宣布当选人。
- posted on 06/06/2008
美国总统选举的不同之处,是计票方法。对于一个普通选民,的确是在直接选举总统。
这个“选举人团”方法,其实是将全国选举,地方(州)化。在一个州,"winner takes all"导致了问题。好象只有一个州是按候选人得票率来分配获得的选举人票的。如果各州都这样,那就不会出现2000年那样的情况,也就是基本按popular votes, 但也不能得到增加小州重要性的加权了。
tar wrote:
不过说“地地道道的直接选举”也不准确,要不然2000年戈尔就当选总统了。
选举人团会上,历史上也有选举人反悔选了对手的事例,只是没起决定作用。
mf wrote:
八先生也犯这个错误,说“美国总统选举是间接选举”。美国总统选举是地地道道的直接选举。唯一不同的是,选票的确是按州加权了的(以八先生说的方式)。
为什么是“地地道道的直接选举”?每一张总统选举的选票上,印的都是总统候选人的名字,选民是在直接投某个总统候选人的票。选举人团那个会,还开吗?无论开不开,毫无意义,因为投票当日,CNN和其它新闻机构,早已经宣布当选人。
- Re: 立此存照:Barack Obama/John McCain: Candidate platformsposted on 06/07/2008
这个线很好,知道候选人穿什么样的鞋,不至于辩论的时候穿错了鞋。
July wrote:
We should start LM's debeats from here :-) - posted on 06/07/2008
OBAMA'S WIDER MAP
About two months ago, we unveiled our early look at the electoral map. And this being the second official day of the general election, now's as good a time as any to see where we stand in the McCain vs. Obama race.
Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)
While both McCain and Obama get to 200 when adding up their base and lean states, it’s clear to see that Obama has an early edge with the map. Not only does he have a stronger base than McCain does (153 votes vs. 116), but he also has more potential pick-up opportunities. When you add toss-up and “Lean McCain,” Obama has the potential for another 222 votes outside his favored states. By comparison, McCain’s toss-up and “Lean Obama” comes to 185. Of course, potential sometimes means just that -- potential. At the end of the day, Obama will likely win few, if any, of those Lean McCain states. But his reach right now seems much longer than McCain’s.
- posted on 06/08/2008
GOP and Dems look to shake up electoral map
Obama and McCain seem determined to shake up static electoral map
The 2008 general election will pit the best-organized nomination campaign in the history of modern Democratic politics against the battle-tested machinery of the Republican Party, with both Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) and Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) determined to shake up an electoral map that has been virtually static over the past two elections.
Democrats enjoy a highly favorable electoral climate at this start of the general election, created by gloomy attitudes about the state of the country and economy, President Bush's low approval ratings and negative perceptions of the GOP. But as Obama shifts his attention from his primary victory over Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) to his test against McCain, the electoral map nonetheless foreshadows another highly competitive race in November.
McCain and Obama offer a rare combination of nominees able to poach on the other party's turf. Both have proven appeal to independents. McCain will target disgruntled Clinton supporters; Obama will target disaffected Republicans. Women, Latinos and, especially, white working-class voters will find themselves courted intensely by the two campaigns.
On issues, the differences are stark, beginning with views on Iraq but also including the economy, now the dominant issue in virtually every region of the country.
Officials from both campaigns confidently predict that they will steal states that have been in the other party's column in recent elections, and an early analysis suggests there will be new battlegrounds added to the map this year, with Virginia, Colorado and Nevada among them. The Midwest remains the most concentrated competitive region of the country, but advisers to McCain and Obama agree that the election could turn on the outcome of contests in the Rocky Mountain States and the South.
Obama deploys grass-roots forces
Obama plans to deploy his grass-roots forces, now hardened by the grueling campaign against Clinton, to every corner of the country. "We're going to be playing a lot more offense than they are," Obama campaign manager David Plouffe predicted.
Obama advisers hope the energy and enthusiasm around the senator's candidacy will not only help him win the White House but also aid down-ballot Democrats, even in Republican states that may be out of reach in the presidential race. "We will have organizations in all 50 states," Plouffe said. "Some will be battlegrounds; some won't. But all will have something to contribute."
Plouffe said Obama's route to the necessary 270 electoral votes starts with holding every state won by Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 and then focusing on a handful of red states that Obama advisers think are ripe for conversion.
The Kerry map gives Obama 252 electoral votes. To pick up the next 18 electoral votes, Obama will target Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. His list also includes Ohio, where he lost the primary to Clinton but which, in the 2006 midterms, shifted dramatically toward the Democrats.
'A major hurdle'
McCain's advisers expressed equal confidence that their candidate can hit the 270 mark, despite a political environment that Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, called "a major hurdle for us."
McCain's team thinks that his potential appeal to independents and some Democrats makes it possible to prevail in what otherwise looks to be a very tough year.
"We understand how to do this," said Mike DuHaime, a senior adviser to both the McCain campaign and the Republican National Committee. "We have operatives who understand how to do this. . . . It's going to give us a tremendous opportunity to turn out voters who wouldn't normally be Republicans."
McCain hopes to tap potential divisions within the Democratic Party by aggressively targeting disaffected Clinton supporters. "I would not have said that we would have targeted Democratic voters in the numbers we're looking at six months ago or four months ago," Davis said, adding: "We've seen significant movement in our direction."
McCain hopes those voters will help him hold on to Ohio, which has been critical to Republican success in the last two elections, and convert Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to the GOP column.
Merle Black, a political science professor at Emory University and co-author with his brother Earl of the book "Divided America," said that at this early stage, Obama might have more opportunities to put together an electoral majority than McCain.
"I think Obama has got a much clearer path to the presidency than McCain," he said.
McCain advisers expect things to get worse before turning back in their direction, as voters give Obama a boost from his victory over Clinton. "There's no doubt in my mind he'll probably get a record bounce," senior adviser Charlie Black said, pointing to the historic implications of Obama's victory in the primaries.
But the McCain adviser predicted that, when voters take a deeper look at their choice, they will find McCain more appealing, in part for ideological reasons. "The country is still a slightly right-of-center country," he said, "and [voters] think McCain is slightly right of center, and they think Obama is way off to the left."
For all the talk about an expanded electoral map with a host of new battlegrounds, the candidates are looking at a fairly traditional landscape.
While Obama has talked about competing in nontraditional states, there already are some states that were on both parties' target lists in past campaigns but that may be out of reach for him.
One is West Virginia, which Republicans have won in the past two elections and which Obama lost to Clinton in the primary by a stunning 41 points. Another more significant one could be Florida, although Obama intends to compete hard there. "I wouldn't feel as good [about Florida] if Hillary were the nominee," one McCain adviser said.
An analysis of past elections shows remarkable stability. States the Democrats have won in four of the past five elections add up to 255 electoral votes; states Republicans have won in five of the past seven elections (including two Ronald Reagan electoral landslides) account for 269 electoral votes. New Hampshire, New Mexico and West Virginia, representing 14 electoral votes, fall into neither category.
McCain sees inroads in heartland
In 2004, 13 states were decided by seven or fewer percentage points: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
McCain sees potential to make his greatest inroads in the industrial heartland. Obama stumbled in Ohio and Pennsylvania and never competed in Michigan. Of those, Pennsylvania may be the most difficult for McCain.
In Michigan, the weak economy is likely to help Obama, but because the state is in the hands of Democratic Gov. Jennifer Granholm, McCain will try to appeal to voters who fit the "Reagan Democrat" mold.
Democrats would love to pick off Ohio after their near miss in 2004, but Obama's weakness in rural and Appalachian areas of the state makes the challenge greater. "The $10 million question is to what extent race will play an important role," said Kevin Boyle, a history professor at Ohio State University. "In a state like Ohio that's been so close every single recent election, the loss of even a point on something like race will potentially be devastating."
Elsewhere in the Midwest, Obama demonstrated significant strength in three states that were battlegrounds in the past two elections: Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin. He also carried Missouri narrowly and will compete harder there than Kerry did.
Obama's rally Thursday in Northern Virginia signaled his intention to make the commonwealth and its 13 electoral votes a major battleground. Changing demographics and growing Democratic strength in the Washington suburbs make it possible for him to win Virginia, but McCain advisers think that he, too, can compete in the suburbs and has a natural base of strength in the military community.
Whether Obama can make other Southern states competitive is questionable. Florida will remain on everyone's targeting map, but McCain is a clear favorite there. Obama advisers hope to make North Carolina and possibly Georgia competitive. A large African American turnout could change the equation in both.
Of all the regions in the country, the Mountain West has emerged as the one that may be changing most politically. Fast growth, a rising Hispanic population and disaffection with Republicans have altered expectations in the region.
Both candidates expect fierce competition for the electoral votes of Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico. All three went for Bush four years ago.
Analyzing the state of play at the start of the general election, one top McCain adviser said: "I think some people have thought that this was going to be a drastically redrawn map. I think it's going to be . . . tweaks around the edges."
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(c) 2010 Maya Chilam Foundation