6月以来,中东地区风云诡谲。
在国际油价屡屡蹿升之际,索拉纳率“5+1代表团”访问伊朗,试图重启伊朗核问题的和平谈判。伊朗方面表示绝不放弃加工浓缩铀的权利。6月23日,欧盟作出决议对伊朗实施进一步制裁。与此同时,6月19日,在埃及的斡旋下,以色列与巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动(哈马斯)为期6个月的停火协议生效。此前,以色列与叙利亚进行了秘密谈判。
美国《纽约时报》6月20日援引五角大楼透露的消息报道称,以色列本月初在地中海东部与希腊海域上空展开大规模军事演习,有超过100架以色列F-16和F-15战斗机参与。美国官员称,加油机飞行距离超过了1440公里—相当于以色列距伊朗纳坦兹铀浓缩工厂的距离。
此次演习的重点在于远程攻击能力。
据一名获悉此次军演详情的五角大楼官员说,以色列展开此次军事演习主要有两个目标:首先是要演练飞行策略、空中加油以及发射远程传统导弹。这些都是可能对伊朗核设施发动空袭时所需的行动。第二个目的是要借此传达清楚的信号,即如果让伊朗放弃生产浓缩铀的其他途径都宣告失败,以色列将准备向伊朗采取军事行动。
以空军F-15I机群待命[资料图片]
6月以来,中东地区风云诡谲。
在国际油价屡屡蹿升之际,索拉纳率“5+1代表团”访问伊朗,试图重启伊朗核问题的和平谈判。伊朗方面表示绝不放弃加工浓缩铀的权利。6月23日,欧盟作出决议对伊朗实施进一步制裁。与此同时,6月19日,在埃及的斡旋下,以色列与巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动(哈马斯)为期6个月的停火协议生效。此前,以色列与叙利亚进行了秘密谈判。
美国《纽约时报》6月20日援引五角大楼透露的消息报道称,以色列本月初在地中海东部与希腊海域上空展开大规模军事演习,有超过100架以色列F-16和F-15战斗机参与。美国官员称,加油机飞行距离超过了1440公里—相当于以色列距伊朗纳坦兹铀浓缩工厂的距离。
此次演习的重点在于远程攻击能力。
据一名获悉此次军演详情的五角大楼官员说,以色列展开此次军事演习主要有两个目标:首先是要演练飞行策略、空中加油以及发射远程传统导弹。这些都是可能对伊朗核设施发动空袭时所需的行动。第二个目的是要借此传达清楚的信号,即如果让伊朗放弃生产浓缩铀的其他途径都宣告失败,以色列将准备向伊朗采取军事行动。
战争与和平的信号几乎同时从中东发出。有分析认为,以色列一方面向叙利亚伸出橄榄枝,并与它一向拒不承认的哈马斯实现停火;另一方面,又大搞针对伊朗的军事演习。前者是为了对伊朗釜底抽薪,后者是威慑伊朗。从表面上分析,以色列的意图似乎是缓和周边,集中力量对付东线的伊朗。美国五角大楼高级官员称:“以色列是想让我们知道,让欧洲人知道,让伊朗人知道。他们想发出信息。”
那么,为什么以色列做了自己不说,却要美国替它发信息、替它宣传呢?
以色列《新消息报》军事记者亚历克斯·菲什曼为此做了最好的注解。他说,以色列的一次军事演习消息由美国军方“泄露”出来,表明美国希望借此向伊朗施加更大压力。菲什曼说,“伊朗政权拒绝欧盟代表有关停止核计划的激励方案后,美国人选择通过以色列空军施加更大压力。”
一连串事件的背后,恐怕还是美国因素在起作用:这些举动表明,执政时间只剩7个月的布什政府的核心关切还是伊朗。美国不能容忍一个拥有中东1/3石油资源的、反美的伊朗日益坐大。伊朗问题不解决,迄今还主导着白宫的新保守派如芒刺在背。他们也深知,在美国一向备加关注的中东地区,伊朗问题若不能现在找机会解决,日后恐怕没有一届总统有了断伊朗问题的决心。尽管美国国务院一再声称,解决伊朗核问题外交手段是首选,但布什政府却始终未放弃战争的选择。
以色列军演,既是威慑,也是实战训练。这表明,今年下半年,在美国大选如火如荼之际,中东地区不会平静。而引发动荡乃至新一轮激烈冲突的因素随时随地都存在,并可能以种种形式暴发开来。
- posted on 06/30/2008
Shock and awe
It isn't top of the holiday hot-list, but get beyond the terror headlines and you will be stunned by the warm welcome and architectural treasures Iran has to offer
IRAN is not an obvious holiday destination. Alcohol is banned and the opportunities to sunbathe or strike up a romance are slim, to say the least. Tell people you are going and reactions will be somewhere along the lines of "You're going where? Why? ADVERTISEMENT
Isn't it dangerous?"
But travellers prepared to get behind the 'axis of evil' terrorist headlines and confront preconceptions of religious extremism are rewarded with an unforgettable trip that will be full of surprises. There are ancient cultural wonders, splendid architecture, wonderful bazaars, fascinating landscapes and even great skiing.
But first there is the friendliness and hospitality offered by local people. Spend some time in Iran and you will soon realise that Iranians are much more tolerant and open-minded than you may have garnered from the news pages. And far from being dangerous, Iran – notwithstanding the chaotic traffic situation – is a remarkably safe and welcoming place.
I backpacked around Iran for a month, taking the three-day journey from Istanbul on the Trans-Asia Express. With a smattering of mildly eccentric foreigners on board (Iran seems to attract such people), the journey was straight out an Agatha Christie novel – minus the murder.
I disembarked before Tehran in order to explore the seldom-visited north-west of the country, heading first to the charming, cloud-draped mountain village of Masuleh near the Caspian Sea. Reached via a beautiful drive past tea plantations and rice paddies, the journey takes the traveller up through a deeply forested verdant valley. I spent a few days there relaxing on the rooftop verandas of the tea shops, drinking glass after glass of black tea, smoking lemon-and-mint hubble-bubbles and enjoying wonderful dishes of garlic aubergine.
From Masuleh I headed in a general anti-clockwise loop around the country. Getting around Iran is fast, easy and very cheap. An internal plane ticket can be had for around £15 to £30, and a 12-hour bus or train journey typically costs around £3. As soon as people are seated, they will take out their refreshments – nuts, fruits, biscuits, tea, fruit juices – and share them with people sitting nearby.
In a country where foreigners are still a rarity, Iranians will take a lot of polite interest in you. They are not shy and, by British standards, get personal very quickly (enquiring whether you are married and, if not, why not, are among the first questions they ask). They will also want to know what you think of the country and why you chose to visit, often remarking with a wry smile: "But you think we are all terrorists, no?" It is not unusual to receive invitations to people's homes for tea, a meal or even to sleep. Invitations for food should not be turned down lightly. Meals in Iran are big family affairs and the food is excellent.
My first stop was one of Iran's eight Unesco World Heritage Sites – the 3,250-year-old temple of Choqa Zanbil, on the border with Iraq. The best surviving example of Elamite architecture in the world, it was 'rediscovered' in 1935 by oil prospectors for the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, which later became BP.
The next stage of my journey took me to Esfahan, about 200 miles south of Tehran, an important architectural centre of the Islamic world. One of the city's main attractions is the 17th-century Imam Square, best seen at dusk when families come out to picnic and the lights show the dazzling Imam Mosque and the apricot and turquoise-domed Sheikh Lotfollah Mosque at their best.
From Esfahan I travelled south across the Zagros Mountains to Shiraz, the city that gave the world the famous variety of grapes – as well as roses and poetry. Most people use Shiraz as a staging post to visit the nearby ancient sites of Pasargadae, Naqsh-e Rostam and Persepolis. Pasargadae was once the capital of Persia's first ruler, Cyrus the Great, and you can visit his lonely tomb and the remains of his palace. But it was eclipsed by the palace complex of Persepolis, built by another great ruler, Darius I. Constructed as the masterpiece of the once-mighty Persian empire, the ancient remains are still awe-inspiring, even though Alexander the Great tried to raze it in 330BC. The soaring columns, immense archways and magnificent statues were built to impress and they still do.
Back in Tehran, the only thing heavier than the traffic was the make-up worn by some of the women – the same women whose headscarves barely clung on above quaffed and highlighted hair and who had ditched the shapeless chador for close-fitting black outfits. Tehran is big, bustling, with an estimated 14 million people, and not that pretty, but can be lots of fun.
One of my favourite sites in the capital was the old US embassy, where slogans were painted on the walls outside, including: "We will make America face a great defeat." I also saw on the side of a block of flats a giant mural of an American flag with skulls for the stars and bombs raining down the stripes with the slogan: "Down with the USA."
But, like many people's memories of the revolution, these murals have faded. The majority of Iran's population have no memory of it at all – 60% are under 35, and many I met want to emigrate to the USA.
Historically, Iran has been a tolerant and outward-looking society. Today, it is deeply misunderstood by many westerners. So look beyond the headlines and discover a fascinating country where your deepest impressions are likely to be of the heart-warming hospitality. It was a shock when I returned home and had to pay £30 for a two-hour bus journey – and everybody ignored me.
Fact file: Iran
For trains to Iran, see www.seat61.com/Turkey.htm. The Trans-Asia Express runs from Istanbul Haydarpasa station every Wednesday night, arriving in Tehran at 6.45pm on Saturday evening. Tickets cost £37.
Visas can be obtained from the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Iran at 16 Prince's Gate, London (open Monday to Friday, 12.30pm to 4pm). Tourist visas are valid for 30 days and cost £73 for British citizens. Call the embassy on 020 7225 3000 for details. The process takes about three weeks.
Alternatively, several agencies – such as Magic Carpet Travel (01344 622 832, www.magic-carpet-travel.com), which also organises tours – can apply for a visa for you.
- Re: 伊朗局势posted on 06/30/2008
这说得够吓人的。我想,古罗古还有古波斯(萨珊)的对手。
新罗马这萨珊的对手都不敢有?
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(c) 2010 Maya Chilam Foundation