谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddie
通过摩根给Bear Stein的拯救只是间接的,上一次联邦政府出来直接买单是80年代了,但那次的账单小得多.
费姐妹垮了,不仅许多人住家难保,许多银行也要破产,包括许多国外的投资.联邦的钱是我们纳税人的钱,这一条食物链的挽救到底是谁救了谁呢?
这个周日仅仅是近年来继联邦紧急周末会议大减息,包办摩根收购Bear Stein以后又一轮过山车,还是标志着某种新纪元的开始呢?
可以偷乐的一点是,美国房价可能是到谷底了.....
Fannie Mae(Federal National Mortgage Association)
Sponsored LinksValue Investing Congress
Come and learn from Bill Ackman this October in NYC - Register Now
www.valueinvestingcongress.com
Publicly owned, government-sponsored corporation established in 1938 to purchase both government-backed and conventional mortgages from lenders and securitize them. Its objective is to increase the affordability of home mortgage funds for low-, moderate- and middle-income home buyers. Fannie Mae is a congressionally chartered, shareholder-owned company, and the largest source of home mortgage funds in the United States. Fannie Mae is a large issuer of debt securities which are used to finance its activities. Equity shares of Fannie Mae are traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
Freddie Mac (Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation),
commonly known as Freddie Mac, privately owned, government-sponsored organization that uses private capital to buy home mortgages as a means to help lower housing costs. A sister institution to the Federal National Mortgage Association, as well as a sometime competitor, Freddie Mac aims to foster liquidity, stability, and affordability in the U.S. mortgage market to give Americans the opportunity to afford housing. Chartered by Congress in 1970, it purchases mortgages from a variety of lenders and issues numerous publicly offered securities backed by those mortgages; it also retains some securities in its portfolio. One of the country's biggest buyers of home mortgages, by the early years of the 21st cent. Freddie Mac had provided help to over 46 million families, or approximately one in every six American homes. However, disclosures in 2003 that Freddie Mac had misstated its earnings for 2000–2002 damaged its credibility. The corporation has its headquarters in McLean, Va.
- Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/08/2008
abc can 为费姐妹买单 :-) - posted on 09/08/2008
我还没看这电影! --
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200809&postID=8057
zt:向关注美国前景和总统选举的网友推荐电影【 I.O.U.S.A.】 2008-09-07 14:41:27
这是一部非党无派的政治电影,以曾经是三朝元老的美国国家预算局长 (General Accounting Officer, GAO) David Walker 主动辞职,在全美各地推动消除赤字的草根运动作为故事主轴。电影着重分析的是美国非常令人担忧的巨大赤字 (Deficit) 问题。影片中,除了 David Walker 有讲解外,还有 Alan Greenspan (前联储局主席),Paul O'Neill (前财长),以及富翁 Warren Buffett 等的讲解。
虽然说,电影看完以后可能会有非常沮丧的感觉,但是对于我们这些还在美国生活的人来说,对美国赤字的情况的了解还是很有必要的。因此电影 I.O.U.S.A. 还是很值得一看的。
按照 David Walker 的讲解,美国的赤字主要是在四个方面,即财政,(个人和国家) 储蓄,贸易,以及领导能力。在财政方面,经由小布什总统连续三次减税,今年美国财政赤字将高达八万亿美元。第二,即个人或国家储蓄。我们大家都知道,国家有公债 (而日本,中国是最大的债主),而几乎所有的美国人都是背负债务的 (房屋贷款,汽车贷款等)。第三个是贸易赤字,贸易赤字有四大来源,中国,能源国 (多国),加拿大,日本。最后讲到的是领导人的能力赤字,有点搞笑的是小布什的一段影视,他说他不懂经济,大学里学的 Economics 101 是 "C",哈哈。
如果将社会养老金 (Social Securities),社会医疗保险等所有的财政支出的所有赤字加起来,总赤字将高达五十三万亿 (天文数字)! 如果将这些赤字分散到每一个美国人,我们每人背负十七万五千美金的债务。
这么大的债务留给下一代是不道德的。影片反反复复强调的就是这一点。我们现在在用我们子孙的钱!
影片没有无端指责中国。反而有一些镜头是在显示中国广东的一些打工家庭怎样节省开支,为了明天的幸福。当然,按照美国经济学家的观点,一个国家,社会,或个人,拥有一定的债务并非是件坏事。是坏事的是,当债务超过了他们的偿付能力时。
还有一些数据资料也很有趣。比如,共和党总统候选人马侃宣称如他当选,他将杜绝 Earmark (wasteful spending,即浪费) 支出。但是,电影指出即使所有的 Earmark 都取消了,对财政赤字的影响仅占百分之一左右,No big deal。在小布什总统的主导下,美国国会通过了三次临时减税方案,但是如果当减税案届满让它们自动终止作废的话,对财政赤字的影响也仅百分之十而已。招到很多人指责的伊拉克战争,即使今天完全停下来,其对财政赤字的影响仅百分之三而已 (surprise! 自由派将这个作为很大的 DEAL 来讲)。
联系当前的美国选举 (以下观点来自笔者本人,金笔注)。美国政治确实需要很大的改变,这是因为我们面临很大的赤字的挑战。但是,我们应该相信谁呢?是不是因为布什是共和党的总统,我们就应该选一位民主党人来做总统?
在民主党的全国代表大会上,奥巴马的选举纲领是什么呢?除了向大家保证给你这个,给你那个 (Spending Increase) 外,除了向富人增税以外 (作用不大,见上),还有没有指出美国明天的方向是什么来呢?除了提出口号要把 CONTROL 重新抓回到手里以外,他好象什么都没有提出。
共和党的全国代表大会,他们提出了 "能源自立" (Energy Independence) 的口号,这包括在美国沿海本土开采,建立核能,风能,太阳能等。届时 (好象是十到二十年左右时间) 将贸易赤字中的能源国和加拿大搞定。这个纲领至少在针对贸易赤字解决问题,无论如何比奥巴马的选举纲领要好。
除了看竞选党纲,另外一个问题是,下一届美国总统将面临很多困难的选择。如果将马侃和奥巴马做比较,从两人的经历和家庭背景来看,我个人觉得马侃无论如何比奥巴马要更热爱美国 (依他当兵的经历)。但是马侃如果当选,他很有可能是一位 "强势" 的美国总统,而奥巴马当选则很可能是一位 "弱势" 的总统。面对这众多的困难选择,我们需要的是强势总统,还是弱势总统呢?
里根和小布什都是强势总统,但二者都使美国债台高筑 (其他的功过不论)。卡特和克林顿都是弱势总统,其中卡特做得特别不好。但是,克林顿却做得很好。克林顿时期,美国的财政是赢余的 (美国历史上仅有过两次)! 笔者特别记得克林顿在他最后一次国情咨文演讲中,提出将财政赢余用来弥补 Social Securitiey 的不足。现在看来这个主张是非常正确的,但已经太晚了,小布什的减税方案使这一切成为泡影。笔者觉得非常可惜的是,在现在的四位两党候选人中,没有克林顿的太太希拉丽。
当然还有美国国家安全问题 (不在本文讨论范畴)。
在国家的十字路口,我们到底应该选一位 "强势" 的美国总统,还是一位 "弱势" 的美国总统呢?这是我们每一个人都应该思考的问题。
下面是有关电影的一些 Video Clip。 - Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/08/2008
哈哈。
如果美国政府不为费姐妹买单,美国政府将陷于无所作为,美国经济将更加困难,全体美国人民都要受到伤害。
所谓纳税人的钱,太虚伪了。所有的钱都是国家的钱,因为国家有这个权力与能力把私人财富转为国家财富。
至于美国总统,关键是要准确确定美国在世界里的地位。美国做世界老大没问题,但要做世界超级老大可能太累,人民付出的将太多。
不管如何,美国一定会回到现实中,这就是所谓的科学。
July wrote:
abc can 为费姐妹买单 :-) - Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/08/2008
rzp是不是给解释一下, 为什么房价低要偷乐
rzp wrote:
可以偷乐的一点是,美国房价可能是到谷底了.....
- Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/08/2008
果然罗斯福新政了嘛。
- Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/08/2008
到底就该升了,该买了,可等等再卖了.应该是说有人乐有人愁是吗?
moab wrote:
rzp是不是给解释一下, 为什么房价低要偷乐
rzp wrote:
可以偷乐的一点是,美国房价可能是到谷底了.....
- Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/08/2008
这件事儿根本就是策划好的,2001年后,清清楚楚地把困难转嫁给房地产,这个过程中能捞就捞,过后哪怕洪水滔天。别管怎么折腾,最后买单的,只能是社会最底下的人,他们能力不够了,就把担子往上挪一挪,中产阶级加入买单,连中产阶级都不灵了,就衰退。衰退是必要的,谁也别拦着,拯救地球环境,就靠衰退,否则人灭绝完了野生动物,就只好灭自己了。 - Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/09/2008
abc wrote:
所谓纳税人的钱,太虚伪了。所有的钱都是国家的钱,因为国家有这个权力与能力把私人财富转为国家财富。
你的理论越来越吓人了。
我只是对中国的税收好奇, 比如你做股票发了财交不交税? 交多少税(百分比)? - Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/09/2008
有一点可以肯定:哪怕国家剥夺了abc的全部家当包括最后一条三角裤,abc还是个忠实的国家主义者。 - Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/09/2008
touche wrote:
有一点可以肯定:哪怕国家剥夺了abc的全部家当包括最后一条三角裤,abc还是个忠实的国家主义者。
不可能,做股票的人,这么死脑筋,那才真会保不住三角裤。做股票的人对环境敏感,思想紧贴“地球人都知道”路线,是最典型的潮流主义者。不信你把这些话存下来,过两年,等大潮变了,老A的说辞就是另外一套了。 - posted on 09/10/2008
看你们大惊小怪冷嘲热讽的,再给你们讲一次ABC的科学财富观吧。
国家管理经济主要是两个方面,财富的创造与分配。
财富创造的最好机制是市场经济,它能最大程度满足人性追求无限财富的欲望。但纯粹的市场经济是人剥削人,人吃人的社会,比如旧上海。因此,现代国家必须有强有力的财富二次分配能力,这主要包括各种税收,货币发行等制度。
国家通过货币发行可以剥夺个人的现金财富。国家通过遗产税等可以剥夺个人的物质财富。战争时期国家可以特别募征个人财产。
私人财产是个人神圣不可侵犯的权力,本质是维护一种稳定的社会秩序,保证公民之间不可以打家劫舍。但国家完全可以通过制度性的东西对各种私人财产进行有序的剥夺。
因此,私人财产是个人神圣不可侵犯的权力,不过是一种政治意识形态宣传。
- posted on 09/10/2008
债永远还不完了,债多了不愁。
我们可以把油管插遍了南极北极,阿拉斯加,核能遍布全球,管它啥温室效应,到了我们的子孙,南北极没了,企鹅没了,北极熊没了,我才不在乎有没有赤字哪。
如果2000年,高尔当了总统,还会打伊拉克吗?DNC上说的10年能源自理计划大概早就开始了,领先世界的能源研究和环境保护才是美国今后10-20年的出路吧,才可能会像克林顿时代的IT工业,能带动美国的经济。能源必须和环保连在一起,要不,人类只有死路一条。
都说里根了不起,我看来看去,美国就是从那时起变得极为短见,拆了东墙补西墙,布什就干了两件事,打伊拉克,重用格林斯潘。
GOP只会干一件事,就看眼前,能捞就捞,老百姓还债。
高尔是当今最有远见的人,他在那个党,我就选那个党:-)
lucy wrote:
我还没看这电影! --
http://blog.wenxuecity.com/blogview.php?date=200809&postID=8057 zt:向关注美国前景和总统选举的网友推荐电影【 I.O.U.S.A.】 2008-09-07 14:41:27
这是一部非党无派的政治电影,以曾经是三朝元老的美国国家预算局长 (General Accounting Officer, GAO) David Walker 主动辞职,在全美各地推动消除赤字的草根运动作为故事主轴。电影着重分析的是美国非常令人担忧的巨大赤字 (Deficit) 问题。影片中,除了 David Walker 有讲解外,还有 Alan Greenspan (前联储局主席),Paul O'Neill (前财长),以及富翁 Warren Buffett 等的讲解。
虽然说,电影看完以后可能会有非常沮丧的感觉,但是对于我们这些还在美国生活的人来说,对美国赤字的情况的了解还是很有必要的。因此电影 I.O.U.S.A. 还是很值得一看的。
按照 David Walker 的讲解,美国的赤字主要是在四个方面,即财政,(个人和国家) 储蓄,贸易,以及领导能力。在财政方面,经由小布什总统连续三次减税,今年美国财政赤字将高达八万亿美元。第二,即个人或国家储蓄。我们大家都知道,国家有公债 (而日本,中国是最大的债主),而几乎所有的美国人都是背负债务的 (房屋贷款,汽车贷款等)。第三个是贸易赤字,贸易赤字有四大来源,中国,能源国 (多国),加拿大,日本。最后讲到的是领导人的能力赤字,有点搞笑的是小布什的一段影视,他说他不懂经济,大学里学的 Economics 101 是 "C",哈哈。
如果将社会养老金 (Social Securities),社会医疗保险等所有的财政支出的所有赤字加起来,总赤字将高达五十三万亿 (天文数字)! 如果将这些赤字分散到每一个美国人,我们每人背负十七万五千美金的债务。
这么大的债务留给下一代是不道德的。影片反反复复强调的就是这一点。我们现在在用我们子孙的钱!
影片没有无端指责中国。反而有一些镜头是在显示中国广东的一些打工家庭怎样节省开支,为了明天的幸福。当然,按照美国经济学家的观点,一个国家,社会,或个人,拥有一定的债务并非是件坏事。是坏事的是,当债务超过了他们的偿付能力时。
还有一些数据资料也很有趣。比如,共和党总统候选人马侃宣称如他当选,他将杜绝 Earmark (wasteful spending,即浪费) 支出。但是,电影指出即使所有的 Earmark 都取消了,对财政赤字的影响仅占百分之一左右,No big deal。在小布什总统的主导下,美国国会通过了三次临时减税方案,但是如果当减税案届满让它们自动终止作废的话,对财政赤字的影响也仅百分之十而已。招到很多人指责的伊拉克战争,即使今天完全停下来,其对财政赤字的影响仅百分之三而已 (surprise! 自由派将这个作为很大的 DEAL 来讲)。
联系当前的美国选举 (以下观点来自笔者本人,金笔注)。美国政治确实需要很大的改变,这是因为我们面临很大的赤字的挑战。但是,我们应该相信谁呢?是不是因为布什是共和党的总统,我们就应该选一位民主党人来做总统?
在民主党的全国代表大会上,奥巴马的选举纲领是什么呢?除了向大家保证给你这个,给你那个 (Spending Increase) 外,除了向富人增税以外 (作用不大,见上),还有没有指出美国明天的方向是什么来呢?除了提出口号要把 CONTROL 重新抓回到手里以外,他好象什么都没有提出。
共和党的全国代表大会,他们提出了 "能源自立" (Energy Independence) 的口号,这包括在美国沿海本土开采,建立核能,风能,太阳能等。届时 (好象是十到二十年左右时间) 将贸易赤字中的能源国和加拿大搞定。这个纲领至少在针对贸易赤字解决问题,无论如何比奥巴马的选举纲领要好。
除了看竞选党纲,另外一个问题是,下一届美国总统将面临很多困难的选择。如果将马侃和奥巴马做比较,从两人的经历和家庭背景来看,我个人觉得马侃无论如何比奥巴马要更热爱美国 (依他当兵的经历)。但是马侃如果当选,他很有可能是一位 "强势" 的美国总统,而奥巴马当选则很可能是一位 "弱势" 的总统。面对这众多的困难选择,我们需要的是强势总统,还是弱势总统呢?
里根和小布什都是强势总统,但二者都使美国债台高筑 (其他的功过不论)。卡特和克林顿都是弱势总统,其中卡特做得特别不好。但是,克林顿却做得很好。克林顿时期,美国的财政是赢余的 (美国历史上仅有过两次)! 笔者特别记得克林顿在他最后一次国情咨文演讲中,提出将财政赢余用来弥补 Social Securitiey 的不足。现在看来这个主张是非常正确的,但已经太晚了,小布什的减税方案使这一切成为泡影。笔者觉得非常可惜的是,在现在的四位两党候选人中,没有克林顿的太太希拉丽。
当然还有美国国家安全问题 (不在本文讨论范畴)。
在国家的十字路口,我们到底应该选一位 "强势" 的美国总统,还是一位 "弱势" 的美国总统呢?这是我们每一个人都应该思考的问题。
下面是有关电影的一些 Video Clip。 - Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/10/2008
I like this translation: Fannie/Freddie = 费姐妹. How did you know these corporations are feminine though? Based on the fact they need help from Uncle Sam? - Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/10/2008
I dont know how, it just came to me like that. Now you are asking, I think, aren't they called sister companies? :) After 40% drop yesterday, Lehman now may get in the same or worse position than them and Bear Stern, however, I will certainly call it brother 雷曼兄弟.
Fengzi wrote:
I like this translation: Fannie/Freddie = 费姐妹. How did you know these corporations are feminine though? Based on the fact they need help from Uncle Sam? - Re: 谁为费姐妹买单?Who pays the bill for Fannie/Freddieposted on 09/13/2008
讲个刚发生的煽情故事吧:
我3个月前从费姐手里买了栋没收的房子,一直在remodel,晚上去刷墙,突然有人按门铃,我一看,是陌生人,他有点不好意思,说:他就是原来的房主,听说我买了房,一直想过来看看。我让他进来,他一间间看,告诉我他失去了工作,又得了癌,没有医疗保险,房子就被没受了。
他说他就在附近的公寓里租了房。我回家也要路过那个楼,看见他窗户上贴着Obama的牌子。 - posted on 09/15/2008
周五收市时,雷曼兄弟已经是只剩当当响几块大洋了,到礼拜天结束,如果江湖上闻声不动,
恐怕是渣都不剩了。
除了雷曼兄弟门徒们四处奔走相问,不知是否周一还要回门见老大。江湖上各门各派,表面
上偃兵息鼓,其实处处暗涛汹涌。先是传言美洲银行(BOA)对雷曼见死不救,却要花29块大
洋购买收市在17块大洋的美林(Merrill Lynch)。同时美洲国际(AIG)在向山姆大叔讨取巨笔
400亿贷款。到了周日晚间,又变成十大门派**要联手各出70亿凑足700亿来救局。午夜时
又传英国银行Barclays去而复返仍要出手帮雷曼一把……
周一的早上,会是美林和雷曼,这两个老牌大派被扫出江湖,还是各门派在英雄大会上各献
出一绝招开创一个新的一统江湖局面呢?
到底是离还是和结果会很不一样吗?不是说“离”,丽也,“离”即依附吗?
------
**Ten banks — Bank of America, Barclays, Citibank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche
Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Merrill Lynch, Morgan Stanley and UBS
Lehman Brothers NYSE:LEH
Type: Public
On the web: http://www.lehman.com Employees: 28,600
Employee growth: 10.4%
Lehman Brothers is a lean, mean, investment banking machine. One of the top bulge-bracket firms, the company is perennially among the industry leaders in mergers and acquisition advice, debt and equity underwriting, and global finance. Capital markets activities (by far its largest segment) entail institutional brokerage, market making, equity and debt research, securities lending, and mortgage banking. Investment banking provides advisory services and underwriting of debt and equity instruments. The investment management segment includes private banking, trust services, private equity, and money manager Neuberger Berman; it oversees some $282 billion for clients.
Merrill Lynch NYSE:MER
Type: Public
On the web: http://www.merrilllynch.com Employees: 64,000
Employee growth: 13.9%
Merrill Lynch is the matador of investment firms. The company (famous for its bull logo) offers financial services for private, institutional, and government clients, including mutual fund, insurance, annuity, trust, and clearing services, besides traditional investment banking and brokerage. Merrill Lynch operates in two segments: Global Investment Management (institutional investors and governments) and Global Wealth Management (private clients and small businesses; this unit includes First Republic Bank). The company also owns 49% of asset manager BlackRock, which absorbed Merrill Lynch's Investment Managers division, uniting Merrill's equity and mutual fund offerings and BlackRock's fixed-income prowess.
- posted on 09/15/2008
一大早,满街都是B,就是找不到北。
LG昨天开一下午会到晚上九点多才回来,害得我们中秋月饼也忘了吃,今早两点就又出门上班了。
华尔街找不到北不只是街上的事,也不只门外大街上咖啡郎的事,不只是今天醒来发现退休金消失了
的雷曼员工的事……
Barclays Balks Before Bluff Blows Bank Buy
Equity Private, Sep 15, 2008, 1:26pm
Brokers Be Broking, Barclays Be Bidding
Sep 15, 2008, 11:58am
Coffee Cart Man Doesn't Think We've Hit Bottom Yet Bess Levin, Sep 15, 2008, 6:43am
So, I just left Lehman Brothers's Coffee Cart Man (CCM), whose real (nick)name is Leon, which almost sounds too good to be true, alliteration-wise. Though some claimed the not so unspoken message he sent to reporters last Friday--which was: Fuck you, leave me the fuck alone!--originated with a Lehman employee who paid him to say back the shit off, Leon told us it was his idea. "When they suffer I suffer," Big L said. Apparently he'd been following the story on BBC London last night/early this morning and thinks the bankruptcy filing "sucks, but what can you do?" He offered that "You've got to look up" and then added pessimistically or realistically that "it's probably going to get worse." The purveyor of pastry diplomatically declined to name specific names of reporters he continues to refuse to service today.
Also--we left him with a few hundred,* so please go drink, on us. (I realize now I should've stocked his cart with the necessary ingredients to make all of today's coffee Irish. There's always tomorrow?)
- posted on 09/15/2008
speechless......
original old stock certificate, bidding at $31 on eBay
PARENTCOMPANY OF THE WHITE STAR LINE - OWNERS OF "TITANIC":
INTERNATIONAL MERCANTILE MARINE - 100 shares issued to Lehman Bros - ' preferred' dd 1925
hand signed by the Vice-President and the Treasurer
Condition: VF ( very fine ), hole-cancellation. No stock value, only for collectors of old stock and bond certificates
- posted on 09/15/2008
Today definitely was an interesting day.
Coming back from my sub-urban home, I was sitting at Eddie's, a shoe-polishing station at the Grand Central Terminal to have my shoes shone. While sitting in a chair waiting for the job to be finished, I quickly glanced over today's New York Post. There I saw a friend of mine in a photo from the news on Lehman Bros' demise. She was on her way out from the Lehman office building, carrying a cardboard box full of office junks. According to the story, she and other employees had been summoned by the company Sunday to clean out the office. Apparently, Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. and Merrill Lynch will soon disappear from the Wall Street landscape.
In September 2001, New York lost twine landmarks. Today, again in September, the city witnessed, in pain and disbelief, the dramatic end of two prominent companies, both of which had survived the Great Depression and numerous recessions afterward. At closing, Dow Jones industrials, like on the first trading day immediately after the September 11 attack, plunged more than 500 points.
The most recent stock market crisis joins a long list, still growing by the day, of unfortunate events in or involving the United States, from the terrorist attack to a losing war in the middle east. All these mishaps, when viewed together, may indeed mark the end of yet another great empire (as feared by Niall Ferguson) and the beginning of a post-American world (as argued by Fareed Zakaria). - Re: 雷曼兄弟?相煎还是相怜?Lehman's Black Sunday, Now what?posted on 09/15/2008
没有战争,时代却发生了转折。
如何从内心承认并政策上适应后美国时代,是未来美国总统必须解决的问题。
一切似是而非的价值观都将重新得到审视,科学而不是宗教将再次发出迷人的魅力。
Fengzi wrote: - posted on 09/15/2008
That girl is your friend? I saw a picture on WSJ, could be the same picture, a young guy and a young girl were walking out of the building.
Fengzi wrote:
Today definitely was an interesting day.
Coming back from my sub-urban home, I was sitting at Eddie's, a shoe-polishing station at the Grand Central Terminal to have my shoes shone. While sitting in a chair waiting for the job to be finished, I quickly glanced over today's New York Post. There I saw a friend of mine in a photo from the news on Lehman Bros' demise. She was on her way out from the Lehman office building, carrying a cardboard box full of office junks. According to the story, she and other employees had been summoned by the company Sunday to clean out the office. Apparently, Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. and Merrill Lynch will soon disappear from the Wall Street landscape.
In September 2001, New York lost twine landmarks. Today, again in September, the city witnessed, in pain and disbelief, the dramatic end of two prominent companies, both of which had survived the Great Depression and numerous recessions afterward. At closing, Dow Jones industrials, like on the first trading day immediately after the September 11 attack, plunged more than 500 points.
The most recent stock market crisis joins a long list, still growing by the day, of unfortunate events in or involving the United States, from the terrorist attack to a losing war in the middle east. All these mishaps, when viewed together, may indeed mark the end of yet another great empire (as feared by Niall Ferguson) and the beginning of a post-American world (as argued by Fareed Zakaria). - posted on 09/16/2008
Tonight is the watch for AIG**.
Anyone else after that? How many more to come will forever alter the landscape of Wall Street?
-----
AIG NYSE:AIG
On the web: http://www.aigcorporate.com Employees: 116,000
Employee growth: 9.4%
American International Group (AIG) is one of the world's largest insurance firms. Domestically the company is known as a leading provider of property/casualty, life, and specialty insurance to commercial, institutional, and individual customers. Internationally, AIG provides reinsurance, life insurance and retirement services, asset management, and financial services (including financing commercial aircraft leasing) in more than 130 countries. Acquisitions have brought in leading annuities firm AIG Retirement Services, life insurer AIG American General, and other companies specializing in retail financial markets.
- Re: 雷曼兄弟?相煎还是相怜?Lehman's Black Sunday, Now what?posted on 09/16/2008
Speechless! - posted on 09/16/2008
We could be looking at the same pictures.
yc wrote:
That girl is your friend? I saw a picture on WSJ, could be the same picture, a young guy and a young girl were walking out of the building.
科学与宗教将会同美元,人民币一样,在未来时代中发出迷人的魅力。
ABC wrote:
没有战争,时代却发生了转折。
如何从内心承认并政策上适应后美国时代,是未来美国总统必须解决的问题。
一切似是而非的价值观都将重新得到审视,科学而不是宗教将再次发出迷人的魅力。
自芬姐妹后,RZP在9月10日成功预言雷曼兄弟的下场。希望再次预言一些父子、叔侄、妯娌公司的走向供我们选择股票然后再SHORT的参考。
RZP wrote:
I dont know how, it just came to me like that. Now you are asking, I think, aren't they called sister companies? :) After 40% drop yesterday, Lehman now may get in the same or worse position than them and Bear Stern, however, I will certainly call it brother 雷曼兄弟. - Re: 雷曼兄弟?相煎还是相怜?Lehman's Black Sunday, Now what?posted on 09/16/2008
赞同风子关于宗教的看法。不过很显然地,风子是一个大投机分子。
风子 wrote:
科学与宗教将会同美元,人民币一样,在未来时代中发出迷人的魅力。
自芬姐妹后,RZP在9月10日成功预言雷曼兄弟的下场。希望再次预言一些父子、叔侄、妯娌公司的走向供我们选择股票然后再SHORT的参考。
- posted on 09/16/2008
This is a reason why Wall Street needs two street signs.
September 16 in Wall Street History
1920
A horse-drawn wagon blew up Wall Street at lunch time, 32 death
1976
Tax Reform Act finalized, a chunk of the nation's tax burden placed on the wealthy, with an increase in the minimum mandatory payments, as well as a reduction in the rolls of citizens who claimed special tax shelters.
1997 Steve Jobs returns -- the Information Age's version of the return of the prodigal son: Apple Computers enlisted founder and former CEO Steve Jobs to temporarily run the company during a search for a permanent leader.
2008
AIG Explosion Short-lived, ........ - posted on 09/16/2008
fengzi, you never need to worry about your job though, because you can
always become an outstanding journalist:) , it is so self-evident
Fengzi wrote:
Today definitely was an interesting day.
Coming back from my sub-urban home, I was sitting at Eddie's, a shoe-polishing station at the Grand Central Terminal to have my shoes shone. While sitting in a chair waiting for the job to be finished, I quickly glanced over today's New York Post. There I saw a friend of mine in a photo from the news on Lehman Bros' demise. She was on her way out from the Lehman office building, carrying a cardboard box full of office junks. According to the story, she and other employees had been summoned by the company Sunday to clean out the office. Apparently, Lehman Brothers Holding Inc. and Merrill Lynch will soon disappear from the Wall Street landscape.
In September 2001, New York lost twine landmarks. Today, again in September, the city witnessed, in pain and disbelief, the dramatic end of two prominent companies, both of which had survived the Great Depression and numerous recessions afterward. At closing, Dow Jones industrials, like on the first trading day immediately after the September 11 attack, plunged more than 500 points.
The most recent stock market crisis joins a long list, still growing by the day, of unfortunate events in or involving the United States, from the terrorist attack to a losing war in the middle east. All these mishaps, when viewed together, may indeed mark the end of yet another great empire (as feared by Niall Ferguson) and the beginning of a post-American world (as argued by Fareed Zakaria). - Re: 雷曼兄弟?相煎还是相怜?Lehman's Black Sunday, Now what?posted on 09/16/2008
It's sad. Lehman is considered as a good guy. Their employees are probably the most friendly on Wall Street.
- posted on 09/17/2008
AIG扶住了,摩根史丹尼、高盛还是站不住?
AIG80%股份换来是是政府的贷款。民众的保险是保住了,但持股人是基本血本无归。本来政府
被逼得搞共产了,是想着保住后面的摩根史丹尼、高盛不要滑下来。可是,可是……
Tonight(9/17) is the watch for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sack.
If these two are gone, then there will be no more investment banks.
rzp wrote:
Tonight(9/15) is the watch for AIG**.
Anyone else after that? How many more to come will forever alter the landscape of Wall Street?
Morgan Stanley摩根史丹尼 NYSE:MS
On the web: http://www.morganstanley.com Employees: 48,256
Employee growth: (12.8%)
One of the world's top investment banks, Morgan Stanley serves up a whole smorgasbord of financial services. The company divides its operations into three primary business segments: institutional securities (capital raising, corporate lending, financial advisory services for corporate and institutional investors); global wealth management group (brokerage and investment advisory services, financial planning for individual investors and businesses); and asset management (asset management services and products including alternative investments, equity, fixed income; merchant banking; investment activities). Morgan Stanley has some $782 billion in assets under management.
Goldman Sachs 高盛 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., or simply Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is one of the world's largest global investment banks. Goldman Sachs was founded in 1869, and is headquartered in the Lower Manhattan area of New York City at 85 Broad Street.[1] Goldman Sachs has offices in leading financial centers such as New York City, London, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Frankfurt, Zürich, Paris, São Paulo, Bangalore, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Beijing, Mexico City, Singapore, Salt Lake City, Sydney, Dubai, Milan, Melbourne, Tokyo, Taipei, Moscow, Toronto, and Monaco.
- Re: AIG stays, why can't Morgan Stanley and Goldmanposted on 09/17/2008
Really ? I like to read rzp's story.
rzp:
"AIG扶住了,摩根史丹尼、高盛还是站不住?"
- Re: AIG stays, why can't Morgan Stanley and Goldmanposted on 09/17/2008
there is a company called Washington Mutual. I heard.
- Re: 雷曼兄弟?相煎还是相怜?Lehman's Black Sunday, Now what?posted on 09/17/2008
Thanks. It's always good to know that I may potentially have a fallback profession, even if, luckily, or at least I would hope so, I may not need one. :)
feiming wrote:
fengzi, you never need to worry about your job though, because you can
always become an outstanding journalist:) , it is so self-evident
- posted on 09/17/2008
凡是被RZP在公开场所点过名的, 十有八九,不是倒了就是快垮了。所以,PLEASE,千万千万不要点我的名。几时你来中城,我请你吃饭,如何?:)
rzp wrote:
AIG扶住了,摩根史丹尼、高盛还是站不住?
AIG80%股份换来是是政府的贷款。民众的保险是保住了,但持股人是基本血本无归。本来政府
被逼得搞共产了,是想着保住后面的摩根史丹尼、高盛不要滑下来。可是,可是……
Tonight(9/17) is the watch for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sack.
If these two are gone, then there will be no more investment banks.
rzp wrote:Morgan Stanley摩根史丹尼 NYSE:MS
Tonight(9/15) is the watch for AIG**.
Anyone else after that? How many more to come will forever alter the landscape of Wall Street?
On the web: http://www.morganstanley.com Employees: 48,256
Employee growth: (12.8%)
One of the world's top investment banks, Morgan Stanley serves up a whole smorgasbord of financial services. The company divides its operations into three primary business segments: institutional securities (capital raising, corporate lending, financial advisory services for corporate and institutional investors); global wealth management group (brokerage and investment advisory services, financial planning for individual investors and businesses); and asset management (asset management services and products including alternative investments, equity, fixed income; merchant banking; investment activities). Morgan Stanley has some $782 billion in assets under management.
Goldman Sachs 高盛 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc., or simply Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) is one of the world's largest global investment banks. Goldman Sachs was founded in 1869, and is headquartered in the Lower Manhattan area of New York City at 85 Broad Street.[1] Goldman Sachs has offices in leading financial centers such as New York City, London, Boston, Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Frankfurt, Zürich, Paris, São Paulo, Bangalore, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Beijing, Mexico City, Singapore, Salt Lake City, Sydney, Dubai, Milan, Melbourne, Tokyo, Taipei, Moscow, Toronto, and Monaco.
- posted on 09/17/2008
由于美国投资银行业务的同质性,摩根史丹尼与高盛完全有可能滑下来。
美国美国投资银行全军覆没是完全可能的。
经过这次事件,美国一定会改革它的投资银行体系。
具体来说,改革的方向包括。
(1)清算体系,建立独立于投资银行的第三方清算系统。
(2)限制期权等衍生产品的发行,限制对冲基金的发展。期货期权等衍生产品是对冲基金发展的基础,而期权等衍生产品是不对称赌局,是名副其实的“老鼠会”。华尔街的高工资靠的就是这个“老鼠会”。而美国普通民众的财产则通过理财的方式被华尔街的“老鼠会”蚕食了。
rzp wrote:
AIG扶住了,摩根史丹尼、高盛还是站不住?
AIG80%股份换来是是政府的贷款。民众的保险是保住了,但持股人是基本血本无归。本来政府
被逼得搞共产了,是想着保住后面的摩根史丹尼、高盛不要滑下来。可是,可是……
Tonight(9/17) is the watch for Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sack.
If these two are gone, then there will be no more investment banks.
- posted on 09/17/2008
I got a question mark and depressing feeling. But here is a story:
".......A homeless guy who hangs around the street asking for cigarettes
suddenly has opinions about the global financial meltdown. As we handed
him a cancer stick he decided to instruct others about how to keep our
money safe.
"What you gotta do is take your money out the banks and you gotta put
it into China. Get yourself some yen," he said."
Afterall, abc is not proud of the land he is standing on for nothing, scientifically
or not.
Washington Mutual was downgraded to junk Monday night. However it has
officially hired Goldman Sachs to start the auction several days ago.
Morgan Stanley may become part of Morgovia, before GoldGan
SachsLey comes to a stable stand.
reader wrote:
Really ? I like to read rzp's story.
rzp:
"AIG扶住了,摩根史丹尼、高盛还是站不住?"
xw write:
there is a company called Washington Mutual. - posted on 09/17/2008
Here's an analysis and a solution prescribed by Prof. Stiglitz, a Nobel prize winner in Economics. I think his analysis is quite to the point, although I'm not sure if I would agree with his proposals.
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Commentary: How to prevent the next Wall Street crisis
• Story Highlights
• Joseph Stiglitz: Fed pumped too much money, aiding housing bubble
• New-fangled instruments hid overuse of borrowing, Stiglitz says
• Executives followed short-term interests and magnified risks, he says
• Stiglitz: Widespread changes needed to prevent future crises
Editor's note: Joseph E. Stiglitz, professor at Columbia University, was awarded the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2001 for his work on the economics of information and was on the climate change panel that shared the Nobel Peace Prize in 2008. Stiglitz, a supporter of Barack Obama, was a member and later chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during the Clinton administration before joining the World Bank as chief economist and senior vice president. He is the co-author with Linda Bilmes of the "Three Trillion Dollar War: The True Costs of the Iraq Conflict."
NEW YORK (CNN) -- Many seem taken aback by the depth and severity of the current financial turmoil. I was among several economists who saw it coming and warned about the risks.
There is ample blame to be shared; but the purpose of parsing out blame is to figure out how to make a recurrence less likely.
President Bush famously said, a little while ago, that the problem is simple: Too many houses were built. Yes, but the answer is too simplistic: Why did that happen?
One can say the Fed failed twice, both as a regulator and in the conduct of monetary policy. Its flood of liquidity (money made available to borrow at low interest rates) and lax regulations led to a housing bubble. When the bubble broke, the excessively leveraged loans made on the basis of overvalued assets went sour.
For all the new-fangled financial instruments, this was just another one of those financial crises based on excess leverage, or borrowing, and a pyramid scheme.
The new "innovations" simply hid the extent of systemic leverage and made the risks less transparent; it is these innovations that have made this collapse so much more dramatic than earlier financial crises. But one needs to push further: Why did the Fed fail?
First, key regulators like Alan Greenspan didn't really believe in regulation; when the excesses of the financial system were noted, they called for self-regulation -- an oxymoron.
Second, the macro-economy was in bad shape with the collapse of the tech bubble. The tax cut of 2001 was not designed to stimulate the economy but to give a largesse to the wealthy -- the group that had been doing so well over the last quarter-century.
The coup d'grace was the Iraq War, which contributed to soaring oil prices. Money that used to be spent on American goods now got diverted abroad. The Fed took seriously its responsibility to keep the economy going.
It did this by replacing the tech bubble with a new bubble, a housing bubble. Household savings plummeted to zero, to the lowest level since the Great Depression. It managed to sustain the economy, but the way it did it was shortsighted: America was living on borrowed money and borrowed time.
Finally, at the center of blame must be the financial institutions themselves. They -- and even more their executives -- had incentives that were not well aligned with the needs of our economy and our society.
They were amply rewarded, presumably for managing risk and allocating capital, which was supposed to improve the efficiency of the economy so much that it justified their generous compensation. But they misallocated capital; they mismanaged risk -- they created risk.
They did what their incentive structures were designed to do: focusing on short-term profits and encouraging excessive risk-taking.
This is not the first crisis in our financial system, not the first time that those who believe in free and unregulated markets have come running to the government for bail-outs. There is a pattern here, one that suggests deep systemic problems -- and a variety of solutions:
1. We need first to correct incentives for executives, reducing the scope for conflicts of interest and improving shareholder information about dilution in share value as a result of stock options. We should mitigate the incentives for excessive risk-taking and the short-term focus that has so long prevailed, for instance, by requiring bonuses to be paid on the basis of, say, five-year returns, rather than annual returns.
2. Secondly, we need to create a financial product safety commission, to make sure that products bought and sold by banks, pension funds, etc. are safe for "human consumption." Consenting adults should be given great freedom to do whatever they want, but that does not mean they should gamble with other people's money. Some may worry that this may stifle innovation. But that may be a good thing considering the kind of innovation we had -- attempting to subvert accounting and regulations. What we need is more innovation addressing the needs of ordinary Americans, so they can stay in their homes when economic conditions change.
3. We need to create a financial systems stability commission to take an overview of the entire financial system, recognizing the interrelations among the various parts, and to prevent the excessive systemic leveraging that we have just experienced.
4. We need to impose other regulations to improve the safety and soundness of our financial system, such as "speed bumps" to limit borrowing. Historically, rapid expansion of lending has been responsible for a large fraction of crises and this crisis is no exception.
5. We need better consumer protection laws, including laws that prevent predatory lending.
6. We need better competition laws. The financial institutions have been able to prey on consumers through credit cards partly because of the absence of competition. But even more importantly, we should not be in situations where a firm is "too big to fail." If it is that big, it should be broken up.
These reforms will not guarantee that we will not have another crisis. The ingenuity of those in the financial markets is impressive. Eventually, they will figure out how to circumvent whatever regulations are imposed. But these reforms will make another crisis of this kind less likely, and, should it occur, make it less severe than it otherwise would be.
- posted on 09/17/2008
金融体系虽然对实体经济有很大的影响,但金融体系毕竟不是实体经济,它不创造财富。美国投资银行出问题,只要处理得当,对实体经济完全没影响。中国的银行巨量坏帐的处理就是一个例子。
如果摩根与高盛出问题,估计美国政府是出资营救而不会再让他们破产。
经济学发展到今天,处理金融危机已不是什么难题。关键是美国政治意识形态要转变观念,政府干预经济是正常的,金融系统太自由是有很大危害的。
rzp wrote:
"What you gotta do is take your money out the banks and you gotta put it into China.
Get yourself some yen," he said."
Afterall, abc is not proud of the land he is standing on for nothing, scientifically
or not.
- Re: AIG stays, why can't Morgan Stanley and Goldmanposted on 09/17/2008
Wachovia,,, How is Citicorp ? Chase ?
the position... seriously, rzp , I am concerning.
rzp wrote:
Morgan Stanley may become part of Morgovia, before GoldGan
SachsLey comes to a stable stand.
reader wrote:
Really ? I like to read rzp's story.
rzp:
"AIG扶住了,摩根史丹尼、高盛还是站不住?"
xw write:
there is a company called Washington Mutual. - posted on 09/18/2008
1。Joseph Stiglitz: Fed pumped too much money, aiding housing bubble.
美国公民负债率很高,这是经济制度设计的结果,设计者就是Fed。美国公民的高负债做什么了呢,买房子了,aiding housing bubble。
美国公民的高负债,最终的受害者是广大中产阶级。象现在的金融危机,他们的日子就很难过了。
如果Fed不设计高负债金融体系,房子就不会那么贵,广大中产阶级照样可以住同样的房子却不必每月都要付大笔房款。
2。New-fangled instruments hid overuse of borrowing, Stiglitz says。
所谓的New-fangled instruments,就是由期权期货构建的复杂系统。正是这种系统的所谓低风险性,造成投资银行大量借贷overuse of borrowing。
这实际就是对冲基金干的勾当。
3。Executives followed short-term interests and magnified risks, he says。
华尔街精英不知道期权期货是骗人把戏,对冲基金很危害吗?他们完全知道,因为我ABC都很清楚。
他们明知冲基金很危害却要继续做,还是个人或小团体利益思想做怪。金融业财富转移的特点是时滞性。华尔街精英先赚钱followed short-term interests ,然后大家买单。
They did what their incentive structures were designed to do: focusing on short-term profits and encouraging excessive risk-taking.
4。First, key regulators like Alan Greenspan didn't really believe in regulation; when the excesses of the financial system were noted, they called for self-regulation -- an oxymoron.
Alan Greenspan的经济思想肯定与他自由的政治思想有关。但在金融领域,自律是靠不住的,政府的强制的法律制度才更有效。
5。They were amply rewarded, presumably for managing risk and allocating capital, which was supposed to improve the efficiency of the economy so much that it justified their generous compensation. But they misallocated capital; they mismanaged risk -- they created risk.
金融是市场经济的重要部分,但过于复杂的金融体系对improve the efficiency of the economy的效果是递减的,相反,它所产生的风险却以几何级数增长。
很显然,美国投资银行体系太复杂了,太多风险收益不对称赌局。美国投资银行就是“老鼠会”。
6。This is not the first crisis in our financial system, not the first time that those who believe in free and unregulated markets have come running to the government for bail-outs.
我说过,美国的自由的政治思想对美国的金融有负面的作用。过于自由的金融体系很难不崩溃,结果政府意外买单,老百姓意外买单,陷许多老百姓于绝望。
Fengzi wrote:
Here's an analysis and a solution prescribed by Prof. Stiglitz, a Nobel prize winner in Economics. I think his analysis is quite to the point, although I'm not sure if I would agree with his proposals.
- posted on 09/18/2008
Morgan Stanley In Talks With Citic 8:40pm
Talks regarding a merger between Morgan Freeman and Stanley have sadly fallen through but the Times reports that MS is considering joining up with Wachovia. John Mack apparently received a ring from WB this afternoon, interrupting his call with SEC Chair Chris Cox. Discussions are purely preliminary and like every could very well fall through. (4:48pm)
For Washington Mutual, potential bidders include Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase, and HSBC, if you've got some spare change.
This is the article on dealbook(nytimes) on Washington Mutual:
http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/09/17/washington-mutual-begins-auction-to-sell-itself/
xw wrote:
Wachovia,,, How is Citicorp ? Chase ?
the position... seriously, rzp , I am concerning.
rzp wrote:
Morgan Stanley may become part of Morgovia, before GoldGan
SachsLey comes to a stable stand.
reader wrote:
Really ? I like to read rzp's story.
rzp:
"AIG扶住了,摩根史丹尼、高盛还是站不住?"
xw write:
there is a company called Washington Mutual. - Re: No More Investment Bank? 投资银行将不复存在?posted on 09/18/2008
美国投资银行的覆灭肯定是行业问题,金融制度问题,而不是某个经营者的问题。 - Re: No More Investment Bank? 投资银行将不复存在?posted on 09/18/2008
网上盛传:“摩根士丹利正与中信银行展开谈判,可能被后者收购”
当年印地安人无奈地看着白人从天边涌来,难道几百年后,美国人要无奈地看到中国人从天边涌来?OMG, 真要变天啦?
- posted on 09/22/2008
华尔街的蜕变 The Makeover of Wall Street
今天,2008年9月22日,是北半球的秋分。按照西方的说法,今天是秋天的开始。按中国的农历,则
是秋天的中点。秋天是收获的季节,该是天高气爽的时分。
夏末的这个一星期,华尔街的动荡,搅荡了世界金融市场,动摇了美国的民众对美国整个金融系统的
信心。漩涡不断的华尔街,终于在昨晚九点的议会表决后,暂时平息。华尔街在这一星期完成了美国
金融史上重要的一次蜕变。
投资银行从今天起不复存在。原来仅存的投资银行高盛(GS)和摩根士丹利(MS),从此在新法规下成
为传统意义上的银行,跟华尔街上的大银行一统江山。投行模式的结束不仅之于他们,对美国金融系
统也是一个新的开始。
(may be continued.)
回顾:华尔街轰然塌下的一周
点评:华尔街-美国在这里诞生
展望:系好安全带,时下流行过山车 - posted on 09/22/2008
rzp wrote:
华尔街的蜕变 The Makeover of Wall Street
今天,2008年9月22日,是北半球的秋分。按照西方的说法,今天是秋天的开始。按中国的农历,则
是秋天的中点。秋天是收获的季节,该是天高气爽的时分。
今天早晨吹着凉风,感到格外的秋意.比中秋还秋,渗入内心的.
这原来是正真的秋风.
夏末的这个一星期,华尔街的动荡,搅荡了世界金融市场,动摇了美国的民众对美国整个金融系统的
信心。漩涡不断的华尔街,终于在昨晚九点的议会表决后,暂时平息。华尔街在这一星期完成了美国
金融史上重要的一次蜕变。
投资银行从今天起不复存在。原来仅存的投资银行高盛(GS)和摩根士丹利(MS),从此在新法规下成
为传统意义上的银行,跟华尔街上的大银行一统江山。投行模式的结束不仅之于他们,对美国金融系
统也是一个新的开始。
直觉着,一种模式玩久了就生弊,早就病殃殃了......
但愿以后缓些,蒙骗指数小一些:)
- posted on 09/22/2008
时代杂志最新一期文章:How Wall Street Sold Out America. 作为门外汉,
读起来触目惊心,雷曼兄弟借贷是 其资产的35 倍,其他三大华尔街投行的
借贷也是其资产的 十几到二十倍,这种经营模式是只能赚不能赔,其模式我看
同年薪三万买三幢房供着等着升值的投资者也高明不了哪儿去。难怪作者都说,
目前的状况是其四十年商业报道中从来没有见过的。
曾经多次被口齿伶俐的股票经纪劝说买股票,全部婉言谢绝。到不是有先见之明,而是担心每天
看着涨落很累。 不如种花种菜,因为诚实无欺,水肥够长得就好:), 而且轻松惬意。 - posted on 09/22/2008
美国政府把高盛(GS)和摩根士丹利(MS)转为混合银行,即含商业银行业务,相当于把毒瘤盖住,治标不治本,并且会带来更大的金融风险。
正如商业银行不能搞实业投资一样,投资银行也不能搞证券投资,否则风险太大。
美国投资银行最根本的问题就是亲自搞证券投资。只不过美国投资银行搞证券投资与一般投资者不同,变了个花样。
下面我举例说明美国投资银行的花样。
假设S&P500目前指数为1200点,投资银行发行执行价为800点的9个月期的认购权证。根据认购权证的特性,该认购权证价格一般都比它本身的价值400点高,我们假设为430点。这样,只要9个月内S&P500不跌破800点,投资银行就稳赚30点。
因此,投资银行实质是开赌场让一般投资者就S&P500涨跌进行赌博,自己9个月期稳赚30点。
如果投资银行不是发行S&P500权证,而是债券权证,则需要原先有债券,这就需要资金。
由于赚这种钱太稳了,因此投资银行一般都是借几十倍的资金买入债券,然后发行权证盈利。
在投资银行实践中,这种权证的设计极其复杂,需要超高的数理基础,中国科大毕业生去华尔街,主要就是做这方面的工作。
前面已经说过,投资银行盈利的前提是S&P500不能跌破800点。假如跌到700点,则投资银行亏损100点。
由于投资银行借贷几十倍,100点的亏损就可以让投资银行破产。当前美国投资银行危机,实质就是S&P500跌破800点的情况出现了。
美国五大投资银行全按一个套路做,既然S&P500跌破800点的情况出现了,全军覆没就不奇怪了。
------------
依我的看法,美国投资银行要获得新生,必须改革下面几点。
1。限制权证的发行,限制对冲基金的发展。权证和对冲基金本质上是局的时间很短的赌博,没什么实际价值。
2。建立新的证券登记体系,证券直接登记在一般投资者名下,而不是托管在投资银行。
3。建立新的清算体系,交易清算独立于投资银行,投资者资金帐户设在商业银行。
-------------
美国投资银行发行的各种权证太多了,要清理这些权证需要一定的时间。特别是,清理这些权证时得同时卖掉原来的债券或股票,这样债券或股票要进一步下跌。
所以,目前的问题还真可能仅仅是冰山一角。
总之,华尔街确实玩得太大了。
rzp wrote:
- Re: 华尔街的蜕变 The Makeover of Wall Streetposted on 09/22/2008
1980年现代金融时代以后,华尔街精英的智慧主要是设计赌局骗一般投资者,搞证券价格泡沫,没有什么实质意义,这是我鄙视华尔街的根本原因。
我鄙视华尔街,不是马后炮华尔街出事才有。2003年我在美国学习明白华尔街的本质后,我就很鄙视华尔街。
华尔街回归传统,搞证券发行与交易服务,是必由之路。 - Re: 华尔街的蜕变 The Makeover of Wall Streetposted on 09/23/2008
abc说:BS是科学地愚乐,愚乐的科学。:)
abc wrote: - posted on 09/23/2008
A friend in NZ sent me this:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/26808715
http://elainemeinelsupkis.typepad.com/ezmoneymatters/2008/09/unelected-berna.html
. I got an alarming email from Kevin, a reader, which said that the legislation being handed over the the flaccid fish in Congress has this shocking proviso: Sec. 8. Review. Decisions by the Secretary pursuant to the authority of this Act are non-reviewable and committed to agency discretion, and may not be reviewed by any court of law or any administrative agency.
- posted on 09/24/2008
abc wrote:
------------
依我的看法,美国投资银行要获得新生,必须改革下面几点。
1。限制权证的发行,限制对冲基金的发展。权证和对冲基金本质上是局的时间很短的赌博,没什么实际价值。
不太懂你说得权证是什么。如果你说的是的认股证(warrents),这个在中国好像很流行,在美国不太多。认股证只有企业自己能发行(投行在有抵押的情况下也许可以,没查过书,不太清楚)。
如果你说的是期货和期权,你就完全错了。期货期权对商业机构非常有用,尤其是一些季节性和高风险的产业,没有期货期权帮助控制成本、锁定盈利,在现在这样的商业环境中无法生存。就说中国吧,郑州和大连的期货市场现在很受欢迎,发展得有模有样。只要政府不来“重视”,搞成另一个股市,我认为很有前途。
2。建立新的证券登记体系,证券直接登记在一般投资者名下,而不是托管在投资银行。
3。建立新的清算体系,交易清算独立于投资银行,投资者资金帐户设在商业银行。
你说得稍微晚了点,这些事1933年就完成了。雷蒙破产,你听说他们客户账户里丢失了一分钱吗?投资银行的客户资金必须存放在独立于根本公司的另外一个实体里。这些规则中国比美国落后七十五年,再过五年,就落后八十年。 - posted on 09/24/2008
在国内,权证泛指期货外的一切衍生品,狭义也可以说是 options. futures & options 应该在中美都有明确的含义。
请举例说明雷蒙或其它投行的客户资金存在哪个实体里,客户是如何划转资金的。
行人 wrote:
abc wrote:不太懂你说得权证是什么。如果你说的是的认股证(warrents),这个在中国好像很流行,在美国不太多。认股证只有企业自己能发行(投行在有抵押的情况下也许可以,没查过书,不太清楚)。
------------
依我的看法,美国投资银行要获得新生,必须改革下面几点。
1。限制权证的发行,限制对冲基金的发展。权证和对冲基金本质上是局的时间很短的赌博,没什么实际价值。
如果你说的是期货和期权,你就完全错了。期货期权对商业机构非常有用,尤其是一些季节性和高风险的产业,没有期货期权帮助控制成本、锁定盈利,在现在这样的商业环境中无法生存。就说中国吧,郑州和大连的期货市场现在很受欢迎,发展得有模有样。只要政府不来“重视”,搞成另一个股市,我认为很有前途。
2。建立新的证券登记体系,证券直接登记在一般投资者名下,而不是托管在投资银行。你说得稍微晚了点,这些事1933年就完成了。雷蒙破产,你听说他们客户账户里丢失了一分钱吗?投资银行的客户资金必须存放在独立于根本公司的另外一个实体里。这些规则中国比美国落后七十五年,再过五年,就落后八十年。
3。建立新的清算体系,交易清算独立于投资银行,投资者资金帐户设在商业银行。
- posted on 09/24/2008
abc wrote:
在国内,权证泛指期货外的一切衍生品,狭义也可以说是 options. futures & options 应该在中美都有明确的含义。
谢谢。
请举例说明雷蒙或其它投行的客户资金存在哪个实体里,客户是如何划转资金的。
雷蒙的细节我不清楚,我可以给你讲美林。美林注册了另外一间从法律上完全独立于美林的公司,叫Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith, Incorporated,简称MLPFS。美林的所有客户资产都放在MLPFS里,如果美林破产,从法律上来说,MLPFS不会受影响。MLPFS资产充有律比照商业银行,据我所知,目前里头的资金比政府对商业银行的规定还要多十亿美元。 - posted on 10/03/2008
Two very stressful weeks had just passed. This was an event that directly altered our daily life, as 9-11 has done to my family. Whatever is happening in the market, inside Capital Hill, will affect our life in the future, in a big way.
It is no doubt a crisis for American people, no matter if one realizes it or not. Last weekend, friends from California called to exchange thought and oppinions on how this may affect people on wall street like us, as well as people on main street like them.
It is said that "the best way to deal with a crisis is for clothes to come off, and livers to be taxed". Liver is considered "fat burning" organ in our body. It is a common sense that when the liver becomes over-taxed, the result is "fatty liver". Individuals with over-taxed livers find it almost impossible to lose weight! What a great example of balance art here. We Chinese understand the best about the insight of a turnover, what will happen next when one state reachs its ultimate point, the relationship between the graduation and the commencement.
Play game, when you can. Smile, when you can.
Here is the Banker's Bingo
Please paste HTML code and press Enter.
- rzp
- #1 July
- #2 lucy
- #3 abc
- #4 moab
- #5 xw
- #6 rzp
- #7 苦瓜
- #8 Connie
- #9 touche
- #10 行人
- #11 abc
- #12 July
- #13 Fengzi
- #14 rzp
- #15 July
- #16 rzp
- #17 rzp
- #18 rzp
- #19 Fengzi
- #20 abc
- #21 yc
- #22 rzp
- #23 July
- #24 风子
- #25 abc
- #26 rzp
- #27 feiming
- #28 pepper
- #29 rzp
- #30 reader
- #31 xw
- #32 Fengzi
- #33 风子
- #34 abc
- #35 rzp
- #36 Fengzi
- #37 abc
- #38 xw
- #39 abc
- #40 rzp
- #41 abc
- #42 gz
- #43 rzp
- #44 xw
- #45 feiming
- #46 abc
- #47 abc
- #48 rzp
- #49 fanghuzhai
- #50 行人
- #51 abc
- #52 行人
- #53 rzp
(c) 2010 Maya Chilam Foundation