A Path Out Of the Woods
We need China to see that its interests are aligned with America's. If not, things could get very, very ugly.
Fareed Zakaria
NEWSWEEK
From the magazine issue dated Dec 1, 2008
For weeks the world has eagerly awaited word from the Obama transition team about the people who will head up the next American administration—the new secretaries of state and Treasury, the attorney general. But one of the more crucial positions in the Obama administration probably isn't going to be filled for months and will likely get little attention when it is—the post of U.S. ambassador to China.
Everyone knows that China is a major power and our representation there is important. But right now, we need Beijing like never before. China is the key to America getting through the worsening economic crisis. The American ambassador in Beijing (OK, this is a metaphor for all those officials who will be managing this relationship) will need to make sure that China sees its interests as aligned with America's. Or else things could get very, very ugly.
There is a consensus forming that Washington needs to spend its way out of this recession, to ensure that it doesn't turn into a depression. Economists of both the left and right agree that a massive fiscal stimulus is needed and that for now, we shouldn't be worrying about deficits. But in order to run up these deficits—which could total somewhere between $1 trillion and $1.5 trillion, or between 7 and 11 percent of GDP—someone has to buy American debt. And the only country that has the cash to do so is China.
In September, Beijing became America's largest foreign creditor, surpassing Japan, which no longer buys large amounts of American Treasury notes. In fact, though the Treasury Department does not keep records of American bondholders, it is virtually certain that, holding 10 percent of all U.S. public debt, the government of the People's Republic of China has become Washington's largest creditor, foreign or domestic. It is America's banker.
But will the Chinese continue to play this role? They certainly have the means to do so. China's foreign-exchange reserves stand at about $2 trillion (compared with America's at a relatively puny $73 billion). But the Chinese government is worried that its own economy is slowing down sharply, as Americans and Europeans stop buying Chinese exports. They hope to revive growth in China (to levels around 6 or 7 percent rather than last year's 12 percent) with a massive stimulus program of their own.
The spending initiatives that Beijing announced a few weeks ago would total almost $600 billion (some of which include existing projects), a staggering 15 percent of China's GDP. Given their focus on keeping people employed and minimizing strikes and protests, Beijing will not hesitate to add tens of billions more to that package if need be.
At the same time, Washington desperately needs Beijing to keep buying American bonds, so that the U.S. government can run up a deficit and launch its own fiscal stimulus. In effect, we're asking China to finance simultaneously the two largest fiscal expansions in human history—theirs and ours. They will probably try to accommodate us, because it's in their interest to jump-start the American economy. But naturally their priority is likely to be their own growth.
"People often say that China and America are equally dependent on each other," says Joseph Stiglitz, winner of the 2001 Nobel Prize in Economics. "But that's no longer true. China has two ways to keep its economy growing. One way is to finance the American consumer. But another way is to finance its own citizens, who are increasingly able to consume in large enough quantities to stimulate economic growth in China. They have options, we don't. There isn't really any other country that could finance the American deficit."
In his fascinating new book, "The Ascent of Money," Niall Ferguson describes the birth of a new nation after the cold war. He calls it Chimerica—and it accounts for a tenth of the world's land surface, a quarter of its population and half of global economic growth in the past eight years. "For a time it seemed like a marriage made in heaven," he writes. "The East Chimericans did the saving, the West Chimericans did the spending." The Easterners got growth, the Westerners low inflation and low interest rates.
Like Stiglitz, Ferguson believes that China has options. "They will certainly try to keep American consumption going, but if it becomes clear that it isn't working, they do have a plan B," he said to me last week. Plan B would be to focus on boosting China's own consumption through government spending and easing credit to their own people.
"The big question today," Ferguson said, "is whether Chimerica stays together or comes apart because of this crisis. If it stays together, you can see a path out of the woods. If it splits up, say goodbye to globalization."
In recent years the most important and difficult ambassadorial posting has unquestionably been the one to Baghdad. Over the next decade, the toughest and most crucial assignment may well be in Beijing.
- Re: 中国出钱,美国花钱,走出危机?posted on 11/24/2008
d - posted on 11/25/2008
中国出钱,美国花钱,不是走出危机,是在危机里走老路,走向更深的危机,同时继续寻求出路。
中国为什么买美国的国债,因为要维持国内社会安定,要每年支持五千万人口就业,否则就会有暴动骚乱。美国没钱了,借钱给美国,好让美国继续买中国产品,维持国内社会稳定。如今卖到国外的产品,要调动国内来消费,不是一两天能够做到的事。所以,暂时不情愿但很阿Q地做美国银行。
美国靠借钱的日子还能能过多久?当年.com泡沫,虽然PE几百的公司满天飞,全世界的投资在美国硅谷IT泡沫破后,留下的是当今通讯高速海底干线和一整套基础设施,还是有一点实际的福荫后人。房贷引起的一系列泡沫,在美国除了本不该花的用的被用了,除了更多的债务,没有留下什么实际的给后人。50%的美国国债是外国人买去了,现在中国是最大的买主(~10%),在目前的情况下,除了继续发行债劵和继续赤字,没有更好的救急办法。可是美国如果一直只救急,不做不一定迫切但更重要的事,则有一天连这种救急的办法也行不通了。
到今天,美元仍然是储备货币(reserve currency)。每一次世界上有风吹草动,人们总是买入美金。即使这种风吹草动来自美国本身的经济危机,美元还是照升如故,因为美元仍然是储备货币。就像当年黄金一样,被认为是保值和财富的计算单位,原因是人们对美国有信心。哪一天,如果期货不再用来美元来报价,人们不再存美元了,那意味着人们的信心失去了。
在那一天到来之前,美国的出路在哪呢?解救美国的“改变”是什么呢?阴谋家门的新货币论似乎很对人们的胃口,如果真是如此,这其中的大赢家还是美国吗?
中国出钱,美国花钱,走出危机?
zt wrote:
A Path Out Of the Woods
We need China to see that its interests are aligned with America's. If not, things could get very, very ugly.
Fareed Zakaria
NEWSWEEK
- Re: 中国出钱,美国花钱,走出危机?posted on 11/25/2008
美国的出路就是多和平,少打仗,发展多种能源和领先环保技术,生物治癌技术,重振汽车工业,这是唯一的办法。
如果当年高尔当选,美国现在会好许多, 至少能源技术的开发会早8年。奥巴马的思想绝对make sense. - posted on 11/25/2008
货币战争,中国攻陷美联储。
一,向中国巨量发行国债是美国平衡财政赤字的必然选择。
有一点是肯定的,美国未来需要大量赤字。经过这次金融危机,美国政府收入下降,但支出的刚性很强。各种救市需要钱,打仗需要钱,履行军火合同需要钱。
美国平衡财政赤字主要有两个选择,发行美元和发行国债。过度发行美元将导致美元危机,导致美国灾难性的后果,这不是中国所希望看到的。美国发行国债,最大的买主无疑是中国。
二,中国持有巨量美国国债,将废美联储武功。
大家知道,美国中央银行美联储是靠公开市场操作来实现其货币政策的。公开市场操作除了通过贴现率决定市场利率外,另一手段是通过发行和回收国债来调节货币供应量。
中国持有巨量美国国债,意味中国可以随时通过抛售美国国债来影响美国的货币供应量。极端的情况,中国可以通过持续地抛售美国国债来使美元持续贬值,最终导致美元危机。
三,中国购买美国国债,是全球资本家出钱。
中国政府购买美国国债的资金来自哪里?答曰:来自全球资本家。
惟利是图是全球资本家的本性。人民币对美元被低估,全球资本家有用美元购买人民币的动机。中国政府采取人民币对美元逐步升值,人民币利率略高于美元利率的策略,全球资本家将疯狂把美元卖给中国政府。
籍此,中国政府控制美联储,掌控美国货币政策。
四,美国,注水的世界领导。
Leadership 是美国对外关系最引以为骄傲的词汇。美国货币政策被中国掌控了,美国还敢拿台独疆独藏独要挟中国吗?美国还敢对中国随便指手划脚吗?
美国总统必须与中国政府搞好关系,否则就给他颜色瞧瞧。
五,金融管理,控制战胜自由。
金融市场没有价值底线,可以完全非理性。因此,在金融系统信仰市场调节是幼稚的。
虽然保罗。克鲁格曼今年因为在国际金融体系的卓越贡献获诺贝尔经济学奖,但他的货币危机理论也因为假设太偏离实际而没有坚实的基础。
货币危机随时可以发生,不要理由不要原因,这才是真正的货币危机理论。
面对货币危机随时可以发生的全球金融市场,一个国家确保其金融安全的唯一道路就是控制起金融体系。
美国这么一个超级大国,金融自由都不可取,何况那些小国穷国。
这次金融危机表明,在金融体系,自由是不可取的。
六,美联储独立性名存实亡。
货币银行学,第一个教条就是中央银行的独立性。美联储可以与白宫或国会保持独立,却受中国政府制肘,美联储独立性名存实亡。
这实际意味传统金融理论被颠覆。 - Re: 中国出钱,美国花钱,走出危机?posted on 11/25/2008
abc惘顾事实与科学为某种政治价值辩护,给人头脑不强壮的感觉,句号.
为真理辩护最文明,不顾真理为某种政治价值粉饰最野蛮。
abc wrote:
货币战争,中国攻陷美联储。
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