奥巴马在竞选前到了一次伊拉克。一张着名的照片是奥巴马坐在黑鹰直升机上俯视下面的巴格达。他的竞选口号之一是他将结束伊拉克战争和实行十六个月撤军。大约三个月后,在巴格达的联军新闻发布会,巴格达地区的哈蒙德将军(General Hammond)向我们介绍了巴格达的最新安全状况。在此前后我採访了两名联军的美国将军,负责伊拉克北部区域的司令官赫特林将军(General Hurtling),以及巴格达的斯旺将军(Robin Swan) 。
在现场的人都很清楚,伊拉克发生的是两场战争:第一场战争,美伊军队对抗,有平民的战争误伤并不多;第二场反恐战争,美伊军队在同一战壕,共同面对恐怖战争,试图维护民众安全,伊拉克平民死亡大多在这一时期,几乎都是由宗教极端分子的恐怖袭击恶意谋害。反恐战争过程是:第一阶段,伊拉克国内外恐怖组织袭击,美军为反恐主力;第二阶段是恐怖组织加国内宗教派别内战(主要在库尔德之外),美伊共同承担反恐;二零零七年中开始的第三阶段,内战逐渐中止,伊拉克军队转为反恐主力,内战双方开始共同协助军队反恐,正不压邪的局势根本扭转。
因此,奥巴马在选前到伊拉克视察时,伊拉克大局已定。国外恐怖组织在伊拉克站不住脚,开始外逃,一个主要方向是阿富汗,阿富汗开始吃紧。因此,奥巴马所谓由他来「结束伊战」的说法,是利用了民众的不知情,溷淆两场战争性质,其实很不诚实。奥巴马既然到了伊拉克,就应该很清楚,今天的成果是五年来联军和伊拉克军民努力的结果。哈蒙德将军向我们提供的数字是,一年前巴格达平均每日遭受恐怖袭击四十次,现在是平均四次。
赫特林将军告诉我,大局扭转不仅反映在袭击次数的大幅下降,也由被抓获的恐怖分子的证词证实,他们变得行动困难。另一个关键转折,是五年来的美军训练,终于使得伊拉克军、警能够担当基本反恐作业。我所看到的近百个公路军队关卡和巴格达街头关卡,日常作业都由伊拉克军警负责,联军已经基本移交。可是,正因为是反恐战争,局面不会像正规战争那样清楚。大势扭转并不意味敌军首领签字停战,敌军全部缴械投降。只是军民联防建立起来,使得恐怖分子越来越难以藏身、难以展开大规模活动。但是,一定数量的恐怖袭击,会长期维持。同时,到现在为止,恐怖组织退缩到几个据点,有待解决,其中有北方的第三大城市穆苏(Mosul)。假如需要依靠军事打击扫除据点,还是需要联军作为主力。
另一个外界很少想到、大多伊拉克官员却非常重视的延缓撤军理由,就是新生的伊拉克目前需要一个中间力量来平衡周遭国家的威胁。照伊拉克官员的说法,美军哪怕维持一个军事基地,平时军人根本不出来,都是必要的。我在伊拉克和不同的人谈全部撤军,基本判断都是至少三年,和我在现场得到各种信息之后的判断差不多。
最近美伊新安全条约已经在伊拉克国会通过。这个条约定的就是三年全部撤军。这是一个务实的计划。这在奥巴马就职之前就会定局。奥巴马其实不可能对伊拉克的未来局势有什麽特别作为。眼前的伊拉克问题,根本不是「结束战争」的问题,也完全没有「立即撤军神话」实现的空间。
在伊拉克的土地上走过,有过和联军士兵、伊拉克士兵以及伊拉克人交往相处的经历、在巴格达和士兵们一起观看美国政治家们的竞选宣传,和坐在美国家里看,感觉太不相同。奥巴马当选后,他的助手正在对中国解释:竞选时说的一些话只是为了竞选,不可当真,这似乎已经是竞选心照不宣的规则。
我在採访斯旺将军时,最后有意问了一个我知道答桉的问题,我问将军对竞选中的撤军议题怎麽看。斯旺将军非常清楚地回答我:「和其他国家一样,军人不干政。政治家做决定,作为军人服从命令。」这也是我不止一次讚扬过的制度设置,可是,面对前线冒着生命危险、一寸寸在争取胜利的将士,一个未来的三军总指挥,论及严肃战事,对「下属」说话竟然可以完全不依据战场现实,看着实在不是滋味。
既然奥巴马「结束伊战」、「立即撤军」是空中楼阁,延伸开来,奥巴马改变国际关係的承诺,或者说国际社会对美国外交政策的根本性改变,也存在许多虚幻成分。美国及国际关係的一大焦点仍然是在中东,进一步,中东问题的长期死结以巴问题,也不可能有本质改变。
在伊拉克感受中东问题是具体的,具体到每一个人。我在伊拉克和不同类型的人交谈,只要问到以色列,几乎无一例外毫无商量馀地地持敌对情绪,哪怕他从来没有见过一个犹太人。即使一向对大阿拉伯主义反感的库尔德人,也因为处于伊斯兰宗教文化圈而持有同样强烈的感受。美国外交政策有它非常恒定的一面,它不可能放弃长期来试图协调以巴的角色。这种角色在伊斯兰国家的国民眼中,永远是另外一种色彩。
更何况,阿富汗问题在升级,恐怖组织的越界流窜,仍然可能引发联军越界攻击。也就是说,阿富汗仍然可能继续引发美国和巴基斯坦的矛盾。虽然明年一月即将执行的美伊安全条约规定,驻伊联军不得以伊拉克为基地向邻国发动攻击,最近伊拉克几个邻国开会,也作出不向伊拉克发动攻击的对等协定。可是众所周知,其实现状是不对等的,伊朗和利亚是最近几年恐怖分子进入伊拉克的主要通道,美国和这些国家的关係还是可能恶化。这种恶化都会如同池水中投下石块,一圈圈向外部扩散。
所以,为了竞选成功,奥巴马可以口头承诺任何「改变」,国际社会还是要冷静面对现实。
- posted on 12/05/2008
A so called "western" journalist who didn't know the difference between the Kurdish region and the rest of Iraq is astonishingly ignorant. I don't know what "mainstream" media she got her information from before her trip there, but any person who pays a cursory attention knows the Kurds established their autonomous government and practically is a separate country. The Sunni-Shia violence never spreaded to Kurdistan during this entire period.
Now I will give her some credit for the cojones to travel there for this report, and her observation that most civilian casuaties were caused by the terrorist attacks rather than the direct result of American military actions. But with such scant knowledge about the region and its people, she's not equipped with filing prescient reports that will shed new light on the ground. - posted on 12/05/2008
tar wrote:
A so called "western" journalist who didn't know the difference between the Kurdish region and the rest of Iraq is astonishingly ignorant. I don't know what "mainstream" media she got her information from before her trip there, but any person who pays a cursory attention knows the Kurds established their autonomous government and practically is a separate country. The Sunni-Shia violence never spreaded to Kurdistan during this entire period.
Now I will give her some credit for the cojones to travel there for this report, and her observation that most civilian casuaties were caused by the terrorist attacks rather than the direct result of American military actions. But with such scant knowledge about the region and its people, she's not equipped with filing prescient reports that will shed new light on the ground.
I disagree. - posted on 12/05/2008
You disagree, on what? ;-)
xyz wrote:
tar wrote:I disagree.
A so called "western" journalist who didn't know the difference between the Kurdish region and the rest of Iraq is astonishingly ignorant. I don't know what "mainstream" media she got her information from before her trip there, but any person who pays a cursory attention knows the Kurds established their autonomous government and practically is a separate country. The Sunni-Shia violence never spreaded to Kurdistan during this entire period.
Now I will give her some credit for the cojones to travel there for this report, and her observation that most civilian casuaties were caused by the terrorist attacks rather than the direct result of American military actions. But with such scant knowledge about the region and its people, she's not equipped with filing prescient reports that will shed new light on the ground. - posted on 12/06/2008
输出民主解放中东的神话怎么能没有了呢?
tar wrote:
A so called "western" journalist who didn't know the difference between the Kurdish region and the rest of Iraq is astonishingly ignorant. I don't know what "mainstream" media she got her information from before her trip there, but any person who pays a cursory attention knows the Kurds established their autonomous government and practically is a separate country. The Sunni-Shia violence never spreaded to Kurdistan during this entire period.
Please paste HTML code and press Enter.
(c) 2010 Maya Chilam Foundation