人寿极限究竟在哪?最近德客萨斯健康科学中心(University of Texas Health Science Center)教授Steve Austad同大众健康教授 S. Jay Olshansky打了一个大赌:赌金5亿美元。Steve Austad教授预言第一个可以活到150岁的人是在2000年出生的人。他们在一个投资基金中投入300美元。每年如果增长率按9.5%计算,到2150年,最终基金将达5亿,作为现金支付给赢家的后代。
我到要看看究竟谁胜谁负? 关心这个问题答案的人届时也请一定前来。我会第一时间来此公布消息。
- Re: 生命的极限:世纪大赌posted on 02/20/2010
2150年;-)
我敢打赌2000年出生的人一定有能活200年的。不信您到2200年时常查找,一定有,而且不止一个。我现在投资1美元,到2200年将增值到9亿,全部奖给相信我预言的人。 - Re: 生命的极限:世纪大赌posted on 02/20/2010
每年如果增长率按9.5%计算,300美元到140年后的 2150年 连一亿都不到,怎么会变成五亿?看来这两个人的算术都不大好,150岁也是算错了。 :-) - Re: 生命的极限:世纪大赌posted on 02/20/2010
我敢打赌2000出生的人一定有能活到300岁的。不信活着看!一定有,而且很多。我现在投资1元人民币。到时候,将增值250亿。这笔钱奖给相信我预言的人,绝不食言。
liaokang wrote:
2150年;-)
我敢打赌2000年出生的人一定有能活200年的。不信您到2200年时常查找,一定有,而且不止一个。我现在投资1美元,到2200年将增值到9亿,全部奖给相信我预言的人。 - posted on 02/21/2010
都捣什么乱啊。
刚才用 compound interest calculator 算的,
Current Principal: $300
Years to grow: 140
Interest Rate: 9.5%
Future Value: $ 98,877,605.21,差不多是一亿
查看这条新闻,是 2001 年的,增长 149 年,如果 principal 是 $150,到 2150 年是 $111,890,964.20,刚过一亿。
http://www.grg.org/Bet2150.htm
January 16, 2001; Moscow, ID (AP) -- Two researchers have bet $500 million on what the world record will be for maximum human life span -- a jackpot payable long after they're both gone. Profs. S. Jay Olshansky and Steven Austad established a trust fund this year with $150 each. The fund will grow until Jan. 1, 2150, when the bet is up and payable to the heirs of the winner. Austad believes someone already born will win him the wager, living to be 150.
Olshansky bet that 130 is the top end of the human life span. The wager coincides with the release of a book Olshansky wrote with Bruce Carnes called "The Quest for Immortality: Science at the Frontiers of Aging." Austad, a University of Idaho Zoology Professor, is the author of 1997's " Why We Age: What Science Is Discovering About the Body's Journey Through Life." He contends that technology will stretch life to 150. "We will live longer because cloning technology, combined with stem cell research, is likely to allow the growth of replacement parts in the not-too-distant future," Austad said.
The scientists agreed that simply being alive for 150 years does not count. To win, Austad's 150-year old must be aware of his or her surroundings. The winner will be decided by three scientists chosen by an international scientific organization. If the winner has no living heirs in 2150, universities will receive the money. - posted on 02/21/2010
If history is any guidance, Wall Street wizards have demonstrated, over and again, that wealth growth is a process that defies logic and science. What is mathematically correct in isolation may have little bearing on what is financially achievable in reality.
Obviously, none of us are privy to all the terms of the trust fund the two started with $300. But nothing prevents them from contributing more, including bequeathing a portion of their estates, to the fund.
We need to have a little faith in scientists, journalists, fund managers involved in this comedy. They may not be good at mental math or ignorant of the Pythagorean theorem. But they are Americans. A nation that institutionally separates religion and government yet welds pecuniary and spiritual interests symbiotically together--as evidenced by the “In God We Trust” declaration on the currency-- is a nation that most likely gives birth to citizens highly capable of truthfully counting, religiously watching, and miraculously creating profit gains.
- posted on 02/21/2010
There are two things involved in this "investment" stuff. One is case by case entrepreneur profit or loss. The other in the aggregate average.
Each of those two things are very different from each other. On average, the long term annualized rate of return in terms of real purchasing power is almost impossible at the 9% level. A more reasonable number is 2%-3%. That rate is simply the long term annual dividend/price ratio. All the wild waves of so-called capital gains/ capital losses in broad-market indices are just manifestation of bubbles forming and bubbles popping.
On the other hand, on a case by case basis, there is no limit how much profit (even in terms of real purchasing power) a successful entrepreneur can reap from his initial investment.
But not everyone is a successful entrepreneur.
The nominal $ amounts such as billions, etc. has not enough real meaning in them. Zimbabwe was a nation of everybody being a millionaire or a billionaire not long ago. ; -) - Re: 生命的极限:世纪大赌posted on 02/21/2010
The whole "investment" industry is a monstrous collection of marketing propaganda machines. The assumptions of 9%-10% annual return they try to make you believe is one of their gimmicks to lure you into their machine. Another myth is buy-and-hold.
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