美国经济正在走弱,美联储(Federal Reserve)不太可能无所事事地袖手旁观。
周五发出的信号可能就是这样的。首先,按照计划,商务部(Commerce Department)将出炉美国第二季度国内生产总值的修正数据。正常情况下这不会引起太多关注,但在最近,美国经济没有多少方面是正常的。
修正数据可能显示二季度GDP远不及预想,估计其中显示年化增长率约为1.3%,远低于初步报告中2.4%的增速。
综合来看,今年美国经济似乎已经失去了很大一部分动力。那么在今年下半年或明年年初,在不陷入负增长的条件下,美国经济已经没有多少进一步放缓的空间。
即便不出现负增长,由于增长微弱,失业率也很难不重新朝着10%的水平攀升。
就是在这样的背景下,美联储主席贝南克(Ben Bernanke)当地时间周五上午将在怀俄明州的杰克逊霍尔(Jackson Hole)发表演讲。他可能会利用这次演讲,把为刺激美国经济而采取的新措施公之于众。
在一般情况下,当经济走弱的时候,美联储可以通过下调利率来刺激民间需求,但其目标贷款利率已经逼近于零了,所以它诉诸于非传统措施,也就是扩大自己的资产负债表,作为向经济体注入资金的另一种方法。
管不管用?看看最近的股市行情就知道,所谓定量宽松并没有对股市起到多大的提振作用。如果说有什么作用的话,那就是美联储越承认经济走软,股市就越糟糕。
另外,虽然美联储无法进一步降息,但市场乐于代劳。例如10年期美国国债的收益率已经从4月份大约4%的水平下降到2.5%上下。房贷利率处在历史最低水平,不过这很难说是掀起了一波购房需求。
最乐观的情形,是利率的下降最终发挥效用,趁着经济还没有进一步走软的时候帮助它重新振作起来。毕竟从财政的角度来讲,公众对采取进一步刺激措施已经没有多少支持。
而且就连美联储这边,箭筒里的箭也所剩无几了。
Kelly Evans
- posted on 08/28/2010
The FED always can use money that it creates from thin air to buy any assets (especially government old bonds or even government new bonds through the mechanism of the monetization of government debt) to pump money into the market. In that sense, it always has weapons to try to "fight" the recession. But The persons in the FED are not stupid persons. They have common sense. They know that they must walk a tight rope to balance between "stimulating the economy" and destroying the U.S. dollar.
The next step of development in this economy is unknown because it is impossible to predict what is going to be in the U.S. persons' minds. They may fear about their job losses, or in the case of bankers, their bankruptcy, so much so that they just keep hoarding money balance. On the other hand, they may fear that the U.S. dollar will collapse soon so much so that they just dump the dollar in exchange for whatever real stuff they can grab.
The key for the politicians has always been manipulating the public opinions. They have been trying to pump up the "confidence". And most U.S. persons just obliged because they do not know better. How could they know better if most economists are still tweaking their mathematical models?
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