富人移民已经不是新闻,但是,中国的富人大规模向海外转移资产,实在是一件特大新闻,只不过这个新闻不为老百姓注目,所以,还没有形成舆论的热点。
当官方公布热钱出逃时,我们就应当引起警觉,因为这个出逃的其实不是热钱,而是中国富人的人民币资产换成美元,出逃境外。连续三个月,中国的人民币换成美元净流出资产共计340亿美元,平均每月113亿美元,超过2008年以来的月度高点。
与此同时,为配合这一部分资产流出境外,央行在8月份投放基础货币380亿元人民币,比去年同期多投放213亿。人民币基础货币投放的乘数效应为16倍,等于直接向市场注入5000多亿的货币。也就是说,相当于8月份的新增贷款。8月份新增贷款为5452亿人民币。
当所有的新增贷款都依赖加印的货币时,说明银行系统已经无款可贷。中国城乡居民的28.5万亿存款已经被挥霍一空,如果此时,中国城乡居民开始挤兑,那么,印钞厂就是24小时不停的加班,也无法满足银行柜台取现的需要。这种挤兑活动,很有可能发生在2011年年底或2012年上半年。
富人之所以匆忙转移资产,是因为已经看见了泡沫破灭的结局。当政府试图力压房价无功而返时,表明政府的政策在市场上已经得不到认同,市场在货币的推动下,按照自己的运行法则破冰前行。只要政府一天不放弃以货币来推动经济增长,房价就不会停止上涨,直到泡沫破灭。
大量的富人从今年开始,越来越感觉到在中国的人民币资产不安全,政府的经济管理能力和基本诚信受到他们的质疑。质疑的结果是,再不转移资产,他们这么多年处心积虑积累的资产也许就将灰飞烟灭。所以,连续三个月将资产转移。
因为8月份CPI同比涨幅再创新高后,居民一年期定期存款实际贬值确实已经达到了1.25%。自从CPI今年2月份达到2.7%的高点并超过一年期存款利率(2.25%)后,居民实际存款已连续7个月为负,负利率格局进一步形成。负利率,等同于政府利用金融机构的管理公权,对普通百姓的财富进行掠夺。
一个不正常的现象,这种掠夺不是一天两天,而是33年。全球罕见。已经不可持续。如果在1978年改革开放之初时,拥有100万元,单纯放到现在,只值当年15万元。
央行货币政策委员会委员李稻葵教授说:利率应该调整,调整的多少不是问题的主要,主要是稍微的调整一点,给公众给存款者一个期望,一个指望,也就是说,我们的存款利率是会随着物价上涨的速度上升而上升的,也就是说,银行存钱,把钱存在银行是稳定的,而不要急于把这个钱拿出来,投资到股票市场,尤其不要投资到房地产市场。
李稻葵实际上是在暗示,老百姓不要贷款买房。这个时候贷款买房是自寻绝路,道理很简单,在一个货币失去诚信的时候,与这个货币相关的资产价值根本无从保证。赌博的心态可以存在于市场,存在于楼市投机炒家,但是,不能存在于老百姓的购买行为上。
在富人大举转移资产的时候,老百姓唯一抵御货币贬值的方法就是,购买美元。我研究过津巴布韦、巴西、日本这些国家的泡沫破灭时后,最后的解决办法都是美元。中国外汇管理条例规定,中国公民每年可以兑换5万美元的货币,也许这部分钱才不会贬值,在关键时刻用得着。
- posted on 09/14/2010
这个理解是违背常识的。货币贬值的时候,正是你应该投资不动产或黄金的时候。
设想你贷款200万,十年以后,你还有100万没还,那通货膨胀和货币贬值,到那时候这100万其实也就相当于现在的十万。所以货币贬值的时候,买房子是应该的。当然,这是统计上而言的。
具体是否买房子会得益,得具体分析。
》》李稻葵实际上是在暗示,老百姓不要贷款买房。这个时候贷款买房是自寻绝路,道理很简单,在一个货币失去诚信的时候,与这个货币相关的资产价值根本无从保证。赌博的心态可以存在于市场,存在于楼市投机炒家,但是,不能存在于老百姓的购买行为上。 - Re: 人民币资产的泡沫破灭posted on 09/15/2010
when the currency depreciates, you should buy gold. buying a house is incorrect because the house price will also drop.
the major concern that leads to chinese rich people's outflow is not currency issue. they are afraid of their assets being confiscated by the chinese government and they seek a safe place to protect their assests. - Re: 人民币资产的泡沫破灭posted on 09/15/2010
一个不正常的现象,这种掠夺不是一天两天,而是33年。全球罕见。已经不可持续。如果在1978年改革开放之初时,
这文章在网上传来传去,却没有原出处,安了许多不同标题,里面数据内容也没有出处。
劳烦谁来说明一下?从上面那句话推断,1978年之后三十三年是2011年,文里的今年是指2010年? - Re: 人民币资产的泡沫破灭posted on 09/15/2010
有一个该是让美国人、中国人都开心的招法,就是开放中国人来美国旅行。
中国人来美国存钱,消费美国的服务,给美国银行输血。中国人腰包这么鼓,办美国旅游签证每次还要这样低声下气,让美国人给脸色,实在气死人。有这些钱干嘛啊?
美国怎么会穷呢?卖绿卡、卖护照就是一大把银子。另外,全世界都在受苦,美国怎么置身事外呢? - posted on 09/16/2010
based on its contexts, it means the starting year is 1978 and it lasts 33 years into 2009. So, this article should be written in 2009.
don't fully trust what it says. the inflation issue is not in China alone. throughout the world, in US or Europe, it happens all the time. that is why you should not put money in the bank, either in US or in China.
rzp wrote:
一个不正常的现象,这种掠夺不是一天两天,而是33年。全球罕见。已经不可持续。如果在1978年改革开放之初时,这文章在网上传来传去,却没有原出处,安了许多不同标题,里面数据内容也没有出处。
劳烦谁来说明一下?从上面那句话推断,1978年之后三十三年是2011年,文里的今年是指2010年? - posted on 09/16/2010
maya, US has opened its door for Chinese travelers. If US open too widely, many illiegal immigrants will step in and stay here. US has to put limitation on the treval visa.
美国怎么会穷呢?卖绿卡、卖护照就是一大把银子。另外,全世界都在受苦,美国怎么置身事外呢?someday, when US owes too much for the world to lose confidence on its payback power, USD will not dominate. By that time, US economy will suffer and USD will depreciate sharply like a free fall. given the astonshing speed of US debt accumulation, its days are numbered unless the federal givernment has to reign its budget deficit, at least, and, probably, trade deficit, too.
if you ask how long it can last, one comparison is Japan. Japan's public debt is 160%+ of its GDP. Because it is close to 80% owned by its own citizens, it has not crashed but economists keep saying it is close to bankruptcy. in any case, the bottom line is, when the interest government has to pay on its debt occupies too much of its annual budget to supress its growth power hence become unsustainable, the tragedy will surely happen.
Currently, US government is running an annual deficit of 12% GDP. In 5 years, its debt will increase by 60%. That is on top of its current debt of 80% GDP, giving rise to 140% of its GDP. Considering US debt is more than half owned by foreingers (unlike Japan), the crisis will likely happen at the 140% level. That is why Obama insists on increasing rich people's tax because the debt climbing speed is unsustainable at current rate for 5 years. Relinquish Bush's taxt cut for rich people could add $700bn to the treasury in 10 years, says, $350bn in 5 years. it will help a little bit on its current budget deficit, but not significantly. To key point is still to reduce benefits and cut government spending. It is not possible to cut federal givernement spending at Obama administration, however. Looks like we have to wait for two more years when next republic Reagon takes the white house and control the deficit, even at the cost of poor people's strong opposition.
Having said that, I have to admit that the above arguments are based on the assumption that the current economy won't turn around significantly. This assumption is likely to be correct in near future, say, in 2 to 3 years, but may not be true in 5 years. US is rich in talents and its system favors innovation and invention. Who knows what will be next major invention? It could be a major turnover to revitalize US economy as Internet has done to the US economy 15 years ago. We can wait and see. It is better to be prepared to join and lead the next trend when it comes. it takes vision and courage to do so. so, be prepared for next innovation wave ...
maya wrote:
有一个该是让美国人、中国人都开心的招法,就是开放中国人来美国旅行。
中国人来美国存钱,消费美国的服务,给美国银行输血。中国人腰包这么鼓,办美国旅游签证每次还要这样低声下气,让美国人给脸色,实在气死人。有这些钱干嘛啊?
美国怎么会穷呢?卖绿卡、卖护照就是一大把银子。另外,全世界都在受苦,美国怎么置身事外呢?
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