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=== Times Business ==
OECD warns of danger as Chinese stocks wobble
Influential global think-tank says it will be hard to limit effects of 'marked correction' to the country's stock markets alone Robert Lindsay and agency
China's stock markets run the risk of "a marked correction" with the potential of sending ripple effects into the banking sector, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said today.
The warning came on the back of Chinese stock market that has risen 55 per cent since the start of the year and more than tripled in the past 17 months. It followed remarks night by Alan Greenspan, the former US Federal Reserve chairman, who warned of the risk of a "dramatic correction" in Chinese share prices and said recent gains were unsustainable.
The Chinese government cautioned again today about the risks to investors, using state-controlled media to call on brokerages to step up advice programmes to ensure that investors spend their money prudently.
There is growing concern that millions of Chinese retail investors could have their life savings wiped out, since they have been piling into the market in record numbers.
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The Government warning sent a ripple through stocks and the Hang Sang index closed down 44.95 at 20,799.
The OECD said today in its twice-yearly Economic Outlook that booming Chinese stock exchanges could see their lengthy rally abruptly halted by events such as a slowdown in exports and profits.
"High share prices pose a risk to stability," the OECD said. "The existing level of share prices appears to carry the risk of a marked correction should it appear that the current growth of profits cannot be maintained."
Such a situation might arise in the context of slower export growth stemming from a downturn in world trade, the OECD argued, adding that it could be hard to limit the consequences of a correction to the stock markets only.
"There are some reports that individuals are funding their growing purchases of shares through bank borrowing," it said.
"While the portion of the stock market wealth held by individuals is small, such loans could turn sour if there were a fall in prices, thereby adversely impacting bank balance sheets."
Elsewhere in its report, the OECD said that China, the world's fourth-largest economy, will see more investment-fuelled growth in 2007, with the economy expanding 10.4 per cent this year and next, after 10.7 percent in 2006.
The OECD said that the problem of China's weak currency against the dollar would be eased only if Chinese individuals stopped their huge saving habit - nearly half the country's GDP.
It said China needed to spend more on education and other social programmes while letting its currency rise in value to hold down inflation.