·米永亮·
正当股票市场出现恐慌性抛售，人们对经济发展前景忧心忡忡之际，金融交易市场却出现了二个牛气实足的耀眼亮点，一是黄金：自我上次的“黄金盛期即将来临？”发表之后，金价仅在一周时间内轻松越过前期高点690美元，并在技术买盘的推动下一举跨过700美元，目前高位盘整，即将迎来一波中期多头走势。另一个亮点是石油：国际原油市场可谓是多灾多难，风起云涌，地缘政治的干扰，飙风海啸的袭击，使得国际原油市场凶险异常，经历多少曲折，原油价格也是同样的变化无常。然而，这几年亚洲国家的兴起，使国际上对石油的需求与日俱增，能源市场竞争激烈，而对新能源的开发和运用不仅耗费巨大，时间长，而且难以跟上需求量的增长，原油价格便不断上升。从长远看，这样的趋势还会持续下去。
9月11日欧佩克石油生产国将开会讨论是否增加原油生产配额的问题。由于全球经济已经显露疲软迹象，而且欧佩克产油国的意愿是在不危及全球经济稳定的情况下保持高油价，所以大多数分析家都认为此次会议仍将保持生产配额的不变。
然而，美国原油和汽油供应的下降，对炼油厂状况和在大西洋飓风活动的忧虑，以及中东地区新的暴力一直是支持原油高价格的因素，再加上第四季度用油是全年的高峰，油价很可能飚高至80美元以上。
人们当然也担心疲弱的金融市场和整体经济形势将伤害到对能源的需求。 其实，这也正是欧佩克产油国为难的地方。当年亚洲金融危机时，欧佩克于1998年1月1日增加原油日产量配额250万桶，结果市场出现了低油价高产量的情形，油价呈螺旋式下跌，结果产油国损失惨重，油价的跌幅高达50 ％，而产量也下降了11 ％。
历时两年，欧佩克才使崩溃的油价恢复过来，期货价格在1997年10月份是21.50美元，到1998年12月跌到了10.80美元，一直到1999年8月才回到21.50美元。
我们目前所经历的是一个对油价从新定位调整的阶段，那种认为石油供应可以源源不断，或者可以不断廉价供应的时代已然结束。由于人员、机器设备、以及勘探石油所需的各种花费价格不断上涨，在全球性货币购买力不断贬值的今天，油价上升势所必然。
原油期货价格将很快到达80美元，到那时，或许会有所盘整。然而，将其放在更远的时间背景来看，油价依然还有着强劲的上升空间。
石油——黑色的黄金，在再加上闪闪发光的真金，呵呵，这一暗一明的二样宝贝，是目前金融市场的二道靓丽风景。或许，我们中的许多人就指着这二样宝贝度过目前熊声吼吼的股票市场给我们带来的劫难呢。
□ 寄自德国
- Re: 鍗庡蹇�� : 绫虫案浜細鐭虫补鈥曗�曢粦鑹茬殑榛勯噾posted on 09/11/2007
CND is routinely falling behind of other websites on up-to-date events. It's becoming less and less relevant.
Please, ready no need to waste time following it too much. - Re: 鍗庡蹇�� : 绫虫案浜細鐭虫补鈥曗�曢粦鑹茬殑榛勯噾posted on 09/11/2007
In addition, CND is extremely biased in publishing materials conerning China. It seems that only negative reporting interests CND's editors. I would suggest CND change its name to CNND ("China's Negative News Digest") .
Incrementally but steadily, CND has become a play ground for a bunch of lunatic fringe, who are consumed by their radical ideology and their hatred toward China. As a result, CND has indeed become largely irrelevant. - posted on 09/12/2007
As a consistent CND reader, never did I read anything that's "hatred to China". However, it indeed publishes a lot of articles that are critical of the Chinese government, and the dark side of Chinese society, which is exactly what CND, as an independent and intellectual online media, should do, and exactly one of reasons why I have been reading it for years.
Of course, this is not what some oversea Chinese like to read. Well, there is a Chinese newspaper in the states named People's Daily for them.
CNND wrote:
In addition, CND is extremely biased in publishing materials conerning China. It seems that only negative reporting interests CND's editors. I would suggest CND change its name to CNND ("China's Negative News Digest") .
Incrementally but steadily, CND has become a play ground for a bunch of lunatic fringe, who are consumed by their radical ideology and their hatred toward China. As a result, CND has indeed become largely irrelevant. - posted on 09/12/2007
CND and PD are in the same genre, they both are pretty good at Selective Reporting. So, they are equally irrelevant.
I do not read either of them. There are multiple sources of objective, balanced and unbiased coverage of China's current events out there. For you, stick with CND and soon you will find yourself growing to be a well-informed and well-heeled person.
MF wrote:
As a consistent CND reader, never did I read anything that's "hatred to China". However, it indeed publishes a lot of articles that are critical of the Chinese government, and the dark side of Chinese society, which is exactly what CND, as an independent and intellectual online media, should do, and exactly one of reasons why I have been reading it for years.
Of course, this is not what some oversea Chinese like to read. Well, there is a Chinese newspaper in the states named People's Daily for them.
CNND wrote:
In addition, CND is extremely biased in publishing materials conerning China. It seems that only negative reporting interests CND's editors. I would suggest CND change its name to CNND ("China's Negative News Digest") .
Incrementally but steadily, CND has become a play ground for a bunch of lunatic fringe, who are consumed by their radical ideology and their hatred toward China. As a result, CND has indeed become largely irrelevant. - posted on 09/12/2007
Don't look down PD, never will it have anything same as it. It's one of a kind. CND is just a weak and different voice online in Chinese. It seems that you are even weaker for such a weak voice, even you live in a world where there are so many different sounds.
Eventually, every media in the world is selective in terms of what to report and what to say. When the total selectivity of all the media in China are controlled by the government, the weak Chinese voice from CND is especially significant.
cnnd wrote:
CND and PD are in the same genre, they both are pretty good at Selective Reporting. So, they are equally irrelevant.
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