I came across this article by accident. For those who harbor "ultimate concern" for humanity, this is a must read. :-)
I am inclined to beleive mankind came into being by an accident. For example, if it were not for the asteriod impact 65 million years ago that had rendered extinction of the dinosaurs, there would probably have been neither man nor civilization. By the same token, a similar accident can easily wipe out the whole mankind. Or perhaps, before an accident of this scale strikes planet earth again, man has already destroyed itself by its own force.
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Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth
This article is about the future of civilization, humans and the earth.
Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth are existential risks that would imperil mankind as a whole and/or have major adverse consequences for the course of human civilization, human extinction or even the end of planet Earth.[1] The concept finds expression in various idiomatic phrases such as "End of the World", "Doomsday", "TEOTWAWKI" and others.
1. Types of risks
Various risks exist for humanity, but not all risks are equal. Risks can be roughly categorized into six types based on the scope of the risk (Personal, Regional, Global-Terminal) and the intensity of the risk (Endurable or Terminal). The risks discussed in this article are those in the Global-Terminal category. This type of risk is one where an adverse outcome would either annihilate intelligent life, or permanently and drastically curtail its potential. For an alternative classification system see Jamais Cascio's An Eschatological Taxonomy. A problem for this system is the sheer size of humanity; even in the event of catastrophic nuclear war, total collapse of the ice sheets or ocean currents, or the rise of a devastating epidemic, it is extremely likely that some people will survive, though conventional civilization may collapse.
2. Future scenarios
There are many scenarios that have been suggested that could happen in the future. Some are certain to happen and will almost certainly end humanity, but may only happen on a very long timescale, or may happen sooner. Others are likely to happen on a shorter timescale, but will probably not completely destroy civilization. Still others are extremely unlikely, and may even be impossible. For example, Nick Bostrom writes:[2]
Some foreseen hazards (hence not members of the current category) which have been excluded from the list of bangs on grounds that they seem too unlikely to cause a global terminal disaster are: solar flares, supernovae, black hole explosions or mergers, gamma-ray bursts, galactic center outbursts, supervolcanoes, buildup of air pollution, gradual loss of human fertility, and various religious doomsday scenarios.
2.1 Space
It is certain that events in space can cause life on Earth to come to an end. The certain events, however, will happen at an extremely long timescale measured in billions of years. Projections indicate that the Andromeda Galaxy is on a collision course with the Milky Way. Impact is predicted in about 3 billion years, and so Andromeda will approach at an average speed of about 140 kilometres (87 miles) per second; the two galaxies will probably merge to form a giant elliptical. This merging could eject the solar system in a more eccentric orbit[citation needed] and an unwanted position in the merged galaxy causing our planet to become uninhabitable (an actual collision is unnecessary). In about 5 billion years, stellar evolution predicts our sun will exhaust its core hydrogen and become a red giant. In so doing, it will become thousands of times more luminous.[3] Even in its current phase of stellar evolution, the sun is increasing in luminosity (at a very slow rate). Many scientists predict that in fewer than one billion years, the runaway greenhouse effect will make Earth unsuitable for life.
On an even longer time scale, the universe may come to an end. The current age of the universe is estimated as being 13.8 billion years old. There are several competing theories as to the nature of our universe and how it will end, but in all cases, there will be no life possible. These scenarios take place on a considerably longer timescale than the expansion of the sun.
2.1.1 Meteorite impact
In the history of the Earth, it is widely accepted that several large meteorites have hit Earth. The Cretaceous-Tertiary asteroid, for example, is theorized to have caused the extinction of the dinosaurs. If such an object struck the Earth it could have a serious impact on civilization. It's even possible that humanity would be completely destroyed: for this, the asteroid would need to be at least 1 km (0.6 miles) in diameter, but probably between 3–10 km (2–6 miles).[4] Asteroids with a 1 km diameter impact the Earth every 0.5 million years[4] on average. Larger asteroids are less common. The last large (>10 km) impact happened 65 million years ago. So-called Near-Earth asteroids are regularly being observed.
Some scientists believe there are patterns in the number of meteorites hitting Earth. An interesting explanation of such a pattern is given by the hypothetical star Nemesis. This hypothesis states that a star named Nemesis regularly passes through a denser part of the Oort cloud, causing meteorite rains to collide onto Earth. However, the very existence of this pattern is not widely accepted, and the existence of the Nemesis star is highly contested.
A star passage that will cause an increase of meteorites is the arrival of a star called Gliese 710. This star is probably moving on a collision course with the Solar System and will likely be at a distance 1.1 light years from the Sun in 1.4 million years. Some models predict that this will send large amounts of comets from the Oort cloud to the Earth.[5] Other models, such as the one by García-Sánchez, predict an increase of only 5%.
2.1.2 Less likely cosmic threats
A number of other scenarios have been suggested. Massive objects, e.g., a star, large planet or black hole, could be catastrophic if a close encounter occurred in the solar system. Another threat might come from gamma ray bursts; some scientists believe this may have caused mass extinction 450 million years ago.[6] Both are very unlikely.[2] Still others see extraterrestrial life as a possible threat to mankind;[7] although alien life has never been found, scientists such as Carl Sagan have postulated that the existence of extraterrestrial life is very likely. In 1969, the "Extra-Terrestrial Exposure Law" was added to the Code of Federal Regulations (Title 14, Section 1211) in response to the possibility of biological contamination resulting from the US Apollo Space Program. It was removed in 1991.[8] Scientists consider such a scenario technically possible, but unlikely.[9]
2.2 Earth
In the history of the Earth, many ice ages have occurred. More ice ages will almost certainly come at an interval of 40,000–100,000 years. This would have a serious impact on civilization as we know it today, because vast areas of land (mainly in North-America, Europe, and Asia) could become uninhabitable. It would still be possible to live in the tropical regions, but with possible loss of humidity/water. Currently, we technically exist in a warm period between such ice ages (the last ending c. 10000 years ago), and all civilization save a few hunter-gatherer populations has come into existence within that time.
A less predictable scenario is a global pandemic. For example, if HIV mutates and becomes as transmissible as the common cold, the consequences would be disastrous, but probably not fatal to the human species,[10] as some people are immune to HIV.[11] This particular scenario would also contradict the observable tendency for pathogens to become less fatal over time as a function of natural selection. A pathogen that quickly kills its hosts will not likely have enough time to spread to new ones, while one that kills its hosts more slowly or not at all will allow carriers more time to spread the infection, and thus likely outcompete a more lethal species or strain. A real-life example of this process can be found in the historical evolution of syphilis towards a less virulent form. However, this idea is debated, see selfish gene. Of course, a pandemic resulting in human extinction need not arise naturally; the possibility of one caused by a deliberately-engineered pathogen cannot be ruled out.
Another possibility is the megatsunami. A megatsunami could, for example, destroy the entire east coast of the United States of America (see La Palma). The coastal areas of the entire world could be flooded in case of the collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet.[12] While none of these scenarios could possibly destroy humanity completely, they could regionally threaten civilization as we know it.
However, the most likely scenario is via an ecological disaster, such as world crop failure and collapse of ecosystem services that could be induced by the present trends of overpopulation and non-sustainable agriculture. Most of these scenarios involve one or more of the following: Holocene extinction event, scarcity of water that could lead to approximately one half of the Earth's population being without safe drinking water, Pollinator decline, overfishing, massive deforestation, desertification or massive water pollution episode. A very recent threat in this direction is the Colony Collapse Disorder, a phenomenon that might foreshadow the imminent extinction of the Western Honey Bee. As the bee plays a vital role in pollination, its extinction would severely disrupt the food chain.
The 20th century have seen a rapid increase in human population due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity[13] made by the Green Revolution.[14] Between 1950 and 1984, as the Green Revolution transformed agriculture around the globe, world grain production increased by 250%. The Green Revolution in agriculture helped food production to keep pace with worldwide population growth. The energy for the Green Revolution was provided by fossil fuels in the form of fertilizers (natural gas), pesticides (oil), and hydrocarbon fueled irrigation.[15] David Pimentel, professor of ecology and agriculture at Cornell University, and Mario Giampietro, senior researcher at the National Research Institute on Food and Nutrition (INRAN), place in theirs study Food, Land, Population and the U.S. Economy the maximum U.S. population for a sustainable economy at 200 million. To achieve a sustainable economy and avert disaster, the United States must reduce its population by at least one-third, and world population will have to be reduced by two-thirds, says study.[16]
The authors of this study believe that the mentioned agricultural crisis will only begin to impact us after 2020, and will not become critical until 2050. The oncoming peaking of global oil production (and subsequent decline of production), along with the peak of North American natural gas production will very likely precipitate this agricultural crisis much sooner than expected. Geologist Dale Allen Pfeiffer claims that coming decades could see spiraling food prices without relief and massive starvation on a global level such as never experienced before.[17][18]
An abrupt reorientation of Earth's axis of rotation could cause a new extinction event.[19]
When the supervolcano at Yellowstone last erupted, 600,000 years ago, the magma and ash covered roughly all of the area of North America west of the Mississippi river. Another such eruption could threaten civilization. Such an eruption could also release large amounts of gases that could alter the balance of the planet's carbon dioxide and cause a runaway greenhouse effect, or enough pyroclastic debris and other material may be thrown into the atmosphere to partially block out the sun and cause a natural nuclear winter, similar to 1816, the Year Without A Summer.
2.3 Humanity
Some threats for humanity come from humanity itself. The scenario that has been explored most is a nuclear war or another weapon with similar possibilities. It is difficult to predict whether it would exterminate humanity, but very certainly could alter civilization as we know it, in particular if there was a nuclear winter event.[20]
Another category of disasters are unforeseen consequences of technology. It has been suggested that learning computers take unforeseen actions or that robots would out-compete humanity.[21] Biotechnology could lead to the creation of a pandemic, Nanotechnology could lead to grey goo - in both cases, either deliberately or by accident.[22] It has also been suggested that physical scientists might accidentally create a device that could destroy the earth and the solar system.[23] In string theory, there are some unknown variables. If those turn out to have an unfortunate value, the universe may not be stable and alter completely, destroying everything in it,[24] either at random or by an accidental experiment. This is called Quantum Vacuum Collapse by some.[25] Another kind of accident is the Ice-9 Type Transition, in which our planet including everything on it becomes a strange matter planet in a chain reaction. Some do not view this as a credible scenario.[26]
It has been suggested that runaway global warming might cause the climate on Earth to become like Venus, which would make it uninhabitable. In less extreme scenarios it could cause the end of civilization as we know it.[27]
James Lovelock, creator of the Gaia hypothesis, in his book The Revenge of Gaia (2006), has suggested that the elimination of rain forests, and the falling planetary biodiversity is removing the homeostatic negative feedback mechanisms that maintain climate stability by reducing the effects of greenhouse gas emissions (particularly carbon dioxide). With the heating of the oceans, the extension of the thermocline layer into Arctic and Antarctic waters is preventing the overturning and nutrient enrichment necessary for algal blooms of phytoplankton on which the ecosystems of these areas depend. With the loss of phytoplankton and tropical rain forests, two of the main carbon dioxide sinks for reducing global warming, he suggests a runaway positive feedback effect could cause tropical deserts to cover most of the worlds tropical regions, and the disappearance of polar ice caps, posing a serious challenge to global civilization.
Using scenario analysis, the Global scenario group (GSG), a coalition of international scientists convened by Paul Raskin, developed a series of possible futures for the world as it enters a Planetary Phase of Civilization. One scenario involves the complete breakdown of civilization as the effects of climate change become more pronounced, competition for scarce resources increases, and the rift between the poor and the wealthy widens. The GSG’s other scenarios, such as Policy Reform, Eco-Communalism, and Great Transition avoid this societal collapse and eventually result in environmental and social sustainability. They claim the outcome is dependent on human choice[28] and the possible formation of a global citizens movement which could influence the trajectory of global development.[29]
Other scenarios that have been named are:
Antibiotic resistance:
Natural selection would create super bacteria that are resistant to antibiotics, devastating the world population and causing a global collapse of civilization.
Demography:
Demographic trends create a "baby bust" that threatens the order of civilization.[30]
Mutual assured destruction
A full scale Nuclear war could kill billions, and the resulting Nuclear fallout would effectively crush any form of civilization.
Finance:
Markets fail worldwide, resulting in economic collapse: mass unemployment, rioting, famine, death, and cannabalism.
Overpopulation:
World population may increase to such an extent in the future that it would lead to lack of space for habitation, except on the Moon, the open oceans, and other planets.
Peak oil:
Oil becomes scarce before an economically viable replacement is devised, leading to global chaos and discomfort.[31]
Quantum energy:
In the search for new quantum particles, scientists accidentally destroy the universe (or at the least, the Earth). This, however, is highly unlikely as far more powerful events occur in nature.
Telomere:
Some researchers theorize a tiny loss of telomere length from one generation to the next, mirroring the process of aging in individuals. Over thousands of generations the telomere erodes down to its critical level. Once at the critical level we would expect to see outbreaks of age-related diseases occurring earlier in life and finally a population crash;[32] however, this possibility may not result in extinction due to the self-reinforcing effects of natural selection.
3. Historical futurist scenarios
Every generation has faced its own fears of an unknown future; the historical record of prior end of civilization scenarios is plentiful. Some of these include the following.
Many fictional (and non-fictional) stories from the era of the Cold War were based on the belief that a nuclear war was inevitable, and that this would result in the destruction of all life on the planet Earth (see World War III for a list).
Nostradamus wrote a prediction that a great catastrophe would occur in the seventh month (July, or some argue September, the seventh month of the pre-modern calendar) of the year 1999. Many followers of his writings took this to mean that the end of the world would occur. When the chosen date came and went without incident, translators of his works began revising them with new interpretations of what the prediction actually meant. (Many now believe that this prediction referred to September 11, 2001.) Despite this, some people also believe according to Nostradamus, that the world will end in the year 3797.
The Y2K bug was supposed to wreak havoc on computer systems. See also Millennialism.
Sir Isaac Newton (1642-1727), who was involved in alchemy and many other things in addition to science and mathematics, studied old texts and surmised that the end of the world would be in 2060, although he was reluctant to put an exact date on it.[33]
Many mistakenly believe that the Maya civilization's long count calendar ends abruptly on 21 December (or 23 December) 2012. This misconception is due to the Maya practice of abbreviating their dates to five decimal places. On monuments where the full date is shown the end of the last creation is said to happen much farther in the future; however, the Mayas did believe that there will be a baktun ending in 2012. A baktun marks the end of a 400 year period and was a significant event on the Maya calendar. In the Aztec calendar, 2012 marks the end of a 26,000 year planetary cycle. This cycle is known as the Great Year and most likely refers to the precession of the equinoxes.
References
Corey S. Powell (2000). "Twenty ways the world could end suddenly", Discover Magazine
Martin Rees (2004). OUR FINAL HOUR: A Scientist's warning: How Terror, Error, and Environmental Disaster Threaten Humankind's Future in This Century — On Earth and Beyond. ISBN 0-465-06863-4
Jean-Francois Rischard (2003). High Noon 20 Global Problems, 20 Years to Solve Them. ISBN 0-465-07010-8
Edward O. Wilson (2003). The Future of Life. ISBN 0-679-76811-4
- Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/03/2007
global pandemic
Antibiotic resistance
地震海啸流星还能够躲,我认为生物灾难是最恐怖的,无处可逃的。 - Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/03/2007
Hmmm ... I thought Pandora closed her box before 'foresight' the devil of devils sneaked out. Apparently she had an ADD moment. :-) - posted on 10/03/2007
那要看什么样的流星。有人作过计算机模拟。如果一块直径1英里左右的陨石撞击地球,若撞在海里将引发巨型海啸(megatsunami);若撞在陆地上,则引发的尘雾将足以屏蔽日照达数日至数周,大气的温度将升至摄氏150至200度。恐龙就是这样灭绝的。(据推算,导致恐龙灭绝的陨石直径只在0。6至0。8英里左右。)
这当然属于小概率事件,但并非不可能。人类的出现,本身就是小概率事件。
前不久在DC的Air & Space Museum看“Cosmic Collisions”,里面提到,有人研究当有这样的高危流星欲亲吻我们的地球时,可发射一个人造卫星,通过卫星产生的引力扰动改变那个危险来客的轨道,使它与地球擦身而过。希望这个idea能工作。
与这样的小概率deep impact相比,更加可能的是文中提到的另外几个Scenarios。如下一个冰川纪(human induced温室效应可以使它提前到来)、食物链的中断、可饮用水的断绝,以及老哇提到的global pandemic、antibiotic resistance等等。不过更为现实的是人类由于自身的贪婪与短视而造成的自我毁灭。
总之,doomsday是一定会到来的。我不是指宗教上的final judgement day,而是指自然的doomsday。人类作为一个整体,既有诞生的那一天,便有毁灭的那一天。这是mathematical certainty。
- Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/03/2007
冰川期是一定要来的。早迟而已。我只希望到那时候人类已经至少在月球或火星上建造了难民营。 - Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/04/2007
我不知道怎么表达我的悲愤:白稽豚等物种在地球上因为人的自私而快速的灭绝,化学物质对生物族群的危害.......近几年国内不断报道天池水怪等出现,这些生活在地下N米的生物浮出水面都说明:地球的破坏已经深入到地表内层,保护海洋环境是人类目前必须正视的,美国的化学武器在伊拉克战争中的危害,使喜玛拉雅山某一段时间毒雾重重,发动战争的人是濒临灭绝的地球生物的罪人...... - Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/04/2007
烛 wrote:
美国的化学武器在伊拉克战争中的危害,使喜玛拉雅山某一段时间毒雾重重,......
这具体是怎么回事? - Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/04/2007
不知wokong有没有读过一个叫John Titor的世界未来时间表.
读这类东东在配上某些New Age类的音乐,感受一下大白日毛骨悚然的阴冷,不知能不能算一种New Age健身活动.估计可练出跟冬天洗冷水澡再近女色的同样功力. - posted on 10/04/2007
Not sure if it has the effect you mentioned, but it might if you ONLY read this kind of stuff and you read it everyday.:-) If you read occasionally, it might help you put things in perspective.
To me, I have a voracious apetite as well as a steely stomach, which enable me to digest almost everything. Currently I am reading Greenspan's new book. One lesson I learned from his insight is: "All forecasts are wrong; But some are better than others.", which, accidently, also applies to any forecasts about human future.
But admittedly, this kind of writing is not for everyone, defintely not for the weak and the feeble....
不知wokong有没有读过一个叫John Titor的世界未来时间表.rzp wrote:
读这类东东在配上某些New Age类的音乐,感受一下大白日毛骨悚然的阴冷,不知能不能算一种New Age健身活动.估计可练出跟冬天洗冷水澡再近女色的同样功力.
- Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/04/2007
wukong wrote:
读这类东东在配上某些New Age类的音乐,感受一下大白日毛骨悚然的阴冷,不知能不能算一种New Age健身活动.估计可练出跟冬天洗冷水澡再近女色的同样功力.
悟空不要先泄了我的气, 我正打算朝New Age加倍努力呢。
还有,预测未来当然都是错误的(回顾过去也同样不保证正确,你看看那么多矛盾重重的历史课本,那么多restated财务报表?:))
- Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/04/2007
八十一子 wrote:
冰川期是一定要来的。早迟而已。我只希望到那时候人类已经至少在月球或火星上建造了难民营。
保险的话,先到撒哈拉买块地。
沙特阿拉伯也成。 - Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/04/2007
Good observation. Errors in a backcast typically are casued by faulty memory, shaky data, and/or biased presumption. Forecasting, however, is like driving by looking at the back mirror, which, for its shortcomings, is still better than driving blindfolded.
WOA wrote:
还有,预测未来当然都是错误的(回顾过去也同样不保证正确,你看看那么多矛盾重重的历史课本,那么多restated财务报表?:))
- Re: 关心人类命运的人士必读:Doomsday Scenariosposted on 10/04/2007
When can this doomday arrive? I wish today :-)
I am just too painful to wait :-) - posted on 10/05/2007
这些问题到了中年就不很担心了,因为得回答孩子的提问,安慰孩子之前,先把自己安慰好了。女儿六岁的时候知道了全球在变暖,海水会上升淹没我们居住的地方,就很忧郁,整天闹着要搬家去内华达。女儿七岁的时候,从夏令营回来的哥哥告诉她,2029年地球会遭遇一个大陨石的袭击,从此每天晚上家里鸡犬不宁,女儿说一闭上眼睛就看到陨石砸下来了。从小自己睡觉的女儿一定得有人陪着才能睡觉,而且号称半夜醒来会想到地球的危险,夜不能寐。哥哥也觉得自己惹了祸,到处查资料,最后向妹妹承认错误,说上次的数据不对,陨石来的日子不是那个日子,尺寸不是那个尺寸。唉,总算消停了两天。
不过前面文章里说的几种情况有些是可以互相抵消的,比方说人口快速膨胀是一种灾难,人口大量消减也是一种灾难,这两个过程推推搡搡寻找平衡点。当然消减的情况比膨胀的情况让人放心多了。 - posted on 10/06/2007
8 Great Apocalypse Movies -- It is the end of the world as we know it.
by movies.com Tom Johnson
8. The Omega Man (1971)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067525/
7. On the Beach (1959)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053137
6. Children of Men (2006)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0206634/
5. Twelve Monkeys (1995)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0114746
4. The War of the Worlds (1953)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0046534/
3. Planet of the Apes (1968)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0063442/
2. The Terminator (1984)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0088247/
1. Dr. Strangelove Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/ - posted on 10/08/2007
To this list may be added the following:
- Armageddon (starring Bruce willis)
- The Day After Tomorrow
- Sunshine
"Armageddon" is about an imminent collision between the earth and an asteriod the size of Texas. Willis led a world-class drilling team landing on the asteriod, drilling a hole before setting off a nuclear bomb that eventually destroyed the asteriod. The world was then saved by a group of odd members.
rzp wrote:
8 Great Apocalypse Movies -- It is the end of the world as we know it.
by movies.com Tom Johnson
8. The Omega Man (1971)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0067525/ http://a.movies.com/i/features/8great/omegaman.jpg"
7. On the Beach (1959)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0053137 http://a.movies.com/i/features/8great/onthebeach.jpg" /> 6. Children of Men (2006)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0206634/ http://a.movies.com/i/features/8great/childrenofmen.jpg"/> 5. Twelve Monkeys (1995)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0114746 http://a.movies.com/i/features/8great/12monkeys.jpg"/>
4. The War of the Worlds (1953)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0046534/ http://a.movies.com/i/features/8great/waroftheworlds.jpg"/> 3. Planet of the Apes (1968)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0063442/ http://a.movies.com/i/features/8great/planetoftheapes.jpg"/> 2. The Terminator (1984)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0088247/ http://a.movies.com/i/features/8great/terminator2.jpg" /> 1. Dr. Strangelove Or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0057012/ http://a.movies.com/i/features/8great/drstrangelove.jpg" />
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