New York Times Special Report
China’s Leaders Deadlocked Over Succession
By JOSEPH KAHN
BEIJING, Oct. 4 — Just days away from a major leadership reshuffle, China’s Communist Party bosses remain deadlocked over who should sit on the ruling Politburo Standing Committee and who should be anointed to succeed President Hu Jintao as China’s No. 1 leader five years from now, party officials and political experts say.
The uncertainty has contributed to a tense political climate in Beijing, where worries about economic overheating and talk of military action to keep Taiwan from moving toward legal independence have complicated the ruling party’s already delicate internal succession process.
The Communist Party plans to convene a congress on Oct. 15 to ratify a slate of leaders who will serve under Mr. Hu through 2012. But party officials say Mr. Hu and his still-powerful predecessor, Jiang Zemin, have yet to reach a consensus on the leadership lineup.
Among the most significant questions that remain unanswered is whether Mr. Hu will succeed in forming a team that consists of people who owe their power mainly to him instead of to Mr. Jiang or other party elders.
The party elite also has failed to rally behind a younger leader to succeed Mr. Hu when his second term ends in 2012. If that does not change, Chinese politics could become more volatile in coming years, as interest groups form around rival contenders.
Horse trading ahead of the congress has colored almost everything Chinese leaders have done or said in recent weeks.
Top officials have issued fresh warnings that China may take military action if Chen Shui-bian, the president of Taiwan, follows through with his plan to hold a referendum on whether Taiwan should apply to join the United Nations under the name Taiwan rather than its legal name, Republic of China. Chinese leaders view the referendum as a backdoor attempt to sever Taiwan’s remaining ties to mainland China, which they claim would set off a military response.
Party officials say that Mr. Hu intends to make Taiwan a focus of the coming congress. They say he may be seeking to garner support for using force if Mr. Chen does not back down. But he also may hope the Taiwan issue will unify the party around his leadership at a time when he faces political pressure from Mr. Jiang on domestic matters.
Arguably the most important function of the congress, the first in five years, will be to select someone to replace Mr. Hu. Two provincial party leaders, Li Keqiang, 52, the party secretary of Liaoning Province in northeastern China, and Xi Jinping, 54, the newly appointed party boss of Shanghai, are seen as contenders to join the Politburo Standing Committee and take over the most senior positions five years from now.
Mr. Li, viewed as Mr. Hu’s favorite, may now have to settle for second place, behind Mr. Xi, who has stronger support from Mr. Jiang, said several people informed about the jockeying. They spoke on condition of anonymity because China treats all elite political maneuvering as a state secret.
One slate of candidates discussed among party leaders in recent days has Mr. Xi replacing Zeng Qinghong as vice president and head of the ruling party’s secretariat, the day-to-day manager of party affairs. Mr. Li would become executive vice prime minister.
Both would join the Politburo Standing Committee, with Mr. Xi outranking Mr. Li in the hierarchy by a slim — but potentially decisive — margin, putting him in line to succeed Mr. Hu as party chief. Mr. Li would stand to inherit the post of prime minister, now held by Wen Jiabao, in 2012.
The party chief generally assumes the additional titles of state president and head of the Central Military Commission. That would mean that Mr. Xi, a “princeling” whose father, Xi Zhongxun, was also a senior party official, would become the presumed future leader of China.
But these people cautioned that Mr. Hu had not endorsed Mr. Xi as his successor, leaving open the possibility that he could still mobilize support for Mr. Li or leave the designation of “fifth generation leader” — after Mao, Deng Xiaoping, Mr. Jiang and Mr. Hu — up in the air.
Some party officials suggest that this could open the door to a form of “intraparty democracy,” in which a bigger group of senior officials selects a candidate rather than affirming the choice of the topmost echelon.
China’s authoritarian system lacks a reliable way to pick future leaders. After Mao’s volatile rule, Deng Xiaoping overthrew Mao’s chosen successor and became the top boss himself. He then dismissed two chosen successors of his own before settling on Mr. Jiang and anointing Mr. Hu to succeed Mr. Jiang.
Neither Mr. Jiang nor Mr. Hu has sufficient clout to name a future leader single-handedly. But Mr. Jiang, 80, who retired from his last official post, as military chief, in 2004, retains sufficient sway to effectively veto Mr. Hu’s choice. With the headline race undecided, competition to fill the other powerful slots on the Standing Committee has also run on longer than expected.
Mr. Hu once hoped to reduce the number of people who sit on the ruling body to seven from nine, making it easier to reach consensus on major policy matters. But Mr. Jiang increased the membership to nine from seven in 2002, partly so he could stack the committee with his own loyalists. Party officials say he vetoed Mr. Hu’s proposal to slim down the panel.
Deaths and mandatory retirements have opened at least three positions on the Standing Committee that Mr. Hu and Mr. Jiang have competing candidates to fill.
The fate of a fourth member, Mr. Zeng, has prompted speculation for months. Mr. Zeng is seen as the most powerful party leader after Mr. Hu. He controls the daily affairs of the ruling party. More informally, he leads what is referred to as the princeling faction, consisting of people who, like himself, are the children of first-generation party elite.
Mr. Zeng served as the right-hand man of Mr. Jiang for many years. But he also became indispensable to Mr. Hu over the past five years, party officials said. Mr. Zeng helped Mr. Hu to put into effect a political program that includes paying more attention to the country’s wealth gap, its poor and its environment.
Mr. Zeng reached the formal retirement age of 68 this year, and party officials say he has stated repeatedly that he intends to step down.
But they say that Mr. Hu has sought to retain Mr. Zeng. This is partly because Mr. Hu’s grasp of the party’s internal workings remains incomplete, they say. Mr. Zeng’s departure would also increase the likelihood that two officials seen as core Jiang loyalists, Jia Qinglin, who heads the group that manages the party’s ties to other sectors of Chinese society, and Li Changchun, in charge of propaganda work, could retain their Standing Committee seats.
On the economic front, Mr. Wen has long been viewed as likely to continue as prime minister for another term. But he has recently come under attack within the party because he has failed to reduce economic growth to a more sustainable pace, party officials said.
Inflation, driven by surging food prices, has begun to create social discontent. China’s trade surplus has ballooned to record levels, setting off widespread international concerns about manipulation of its currency.
Party officials said that Mr. Wen was still most likely to retain his post, but that the volatility in the prelude to the congress made his hold on power less secure.
- posted on 10/05/2007
江胡合力将习近平推上台
多维社记者 夏飞
在香港发行的多维月刊10月号(9月20日截稿,29日上市)出版了“中共十七大专辑”,对十七大政治局常委的可能分工作了长篇分析:政治局常委维持九人格局,常委中留任的前四名,分工保持原状,新人习近平主持书记处、李克强当常务副总理、贺国强当中纪委书记、周永康当政法委书记,政治局常委排名应是:胡锦涛、吴邦国、温家宝、贾庆林、李长春、习近平、李克强、贺国强、周永康
这次进入政治局的四位新人,习近平(54岁)、李克强(52岁)、贺国强(64岁)和周永康(65岁),最大的65岁,最小的52岁。比起胡锦涛当年进入政治局常委的未满50岁,并不算突出。四人当中,贺国强和周永康两人已经是政治局委员、书记处书记,这次是顺理成章更上一层楼;习近平和李克强两人是中央委员,这次是三步并作两步,跨越式直升。(chinesenewsnet.com)
江泽民的影响力(chinesenewsnet.com)
从派系背景上看,多维判断,三下四上,表明已经庆贺80大寿的江泽民仍然有相当大的影响力。(chinesenewsnet.com)
随着黄菊病故、曾庆红退出、贾庆林边缘化,人们会认为江泽民的身影淡出未来的决策中枢。但实际上,江泽民仍然是个巨大的存在。对十六大的最高决策层,早有分析家指出,胡、曾明争的背后仍是江、胡暗斗,现在曾庆红虽然退出,而且李克强又以其“共青团派”的鲜明背景,进入政治局常委,有利於胡锦涛;但是多维分析认为,新常委仍然可见江泽民时隐时现的影子。(chinesenewsnet.com)
“太子党”成员习近平在福建升为省长,在浙江升为省委书记,主要是江泽民的提携之功。他在上海主政几个月来尚称顺利,也有江泽民暗中保驾之力。消息人士告诉多维社,习近平进常委,也是江泽民保荐,而共青团的“三胡”--胡耀邦、胡启立、胡锦涛一脉相承,对习家父子先后寄予很大期望,胡锦涛最终接受习近平。(chinesenewsnet.com)
习近平晋升:江操盘,胡接招(chinesenewsnet.com)
原来,习近平的父亲、中共开国元老习仲勋六十年代初受到毛泽东定案的“利用小说反党是一大发明”事件牵连而被撤职拘押。习近平本人也受牵连而吃过苦头。“文革”结束后,习仲勋的冤案平反,当选为中共十二届政治局委员、书记处书记,是改革派重臣之一,胡耀邦深感习仲勋思想合拍,行动默契,富有改革理念,有意让他担任书记处常务书记,主持处理日常繁杂事务。但邓小平没有同意,於是习仲勋成为不挂常务书记头衔的常务书记,而胡启立当时也正是书记处的一员。(chinesenewsnet.com)
一位中共元老级官员告诉多维社,他们去见胡耀邦时,多数是首先见到习仲勋。(chinesenewsnet.com)
胡耀邦受到保守派元老围攻下台,习仲勋仗义执言,给予反击。胡耀邦晚年体会到世态炎凉中,把习仲勋将个人沉浮置之度外的支持视为十分难得的慰藉,非常珍惜。(chinesenewsnet.com)
多维月刊10月号出版了“中共十七大专辑”,对十七大政治局常委的可能分工作了长篇分析。11月号仍将是相关专辑。
胡锦涛对“共青团派”教主深怀崇敬,曾经去江西共青城拜谒过胡耀邦的陵墓。多维得知,胡锦涛也深知胡耀邦当年对习仲勋的器重,对其政治品格也十分敬重,对习仲勋之子习近平,也就早有提携之意,更想将习近平收到麾下。(chinesenewsnet.com)
习近平今年春天刚刚就任上海市委书记,这个职务必然在十七大上成为政治局委员,而且鉴於上海对於中国经济、文化的举足轻重地位,选择他到上海主政,有理由认为,当时中央是考虑让他在一段时间内不挪动的。但令人多少感到意外的是,仅仅事隔半年,就安排他进入政治局常委,这样他势必要被调到北京,而不能再坐镇上海。(chinesenewsnet.com)
观察家分析,这就说明,习近平进常委,是在安排他到上海任职之后中央的突然决定。他的一年“更上两层楼”,是在江泽民操盘、胡锦涛接招的背景中实现的。 - Re: China’s Leaders Deadlocked Over Succession (NYT)posted on 10/05/2007
感觉像在读《拜占庭演义》。;) - Re: 江胡合力将习近平推上台posted on 10/05/2007
到这个年头了还这样偷偷摸摸,看不出希望何在 - Re: 江胡合力将习近平推上台posted on 10/06/2007
There is no hope long ago.
阿慧 wrote:
到这个年头了还这样偷偷摸摸,看不出希望何在 - posted on 10/06/2007
习总其座右铭是“自豪不自满,昂扬不张扬,务实不浮躁”。
上海市委书记习近平被外界视为进入中共核心领导层——政治局常委的热门人选。至于未来会他在常委中分管哪方面工作,目前仍是众说纷纭。近日京城又传出一个惊人信息,就是习近平有可能仿效当年的胡锦涛,出任中央军事委员会副主席。不过,也有消息说,习近平在这次会议上不会有军委职务,而是在两年后的十七届三中甚至四中,才会加入中央军委。
北京耳语称,新一届军委人事安排大抵确定,除胡锦涛连任主席,郭伯雄和徐才厚连任副主席外,习近平极有可能成为未来“中共接班群体的领军人物”。情形就如当年胡锦涛的接班途径,先以政治局常委的身分成为中央军委第一副主席,然后再全面接班。
对于习近平能否如此快出任军委要职,也有京城官场人士不以为然,指胡锦涛在出任政治局常委两年后,才在99年的十五大三中全会上,接任军委第一副主席,因此,习近平最快也要在两年后才进入中央军委。
其实,习近平是中共新生代领导人中,罕有的具军队工作背景者,70年代末,大学毕业后的习近平曾任当时的中共政治局委员、国务院副总理、中央军委秘书长兼国防部长耿的秘书。以后其在福建、浙江及上海的工作经历,都和属地的南京军区结下不解之缘。
富对台工作经验军方好评
据悉,习近平每逢年节都会探访当地驻军,而对军方向地方政府提出的要求,都亲自督促落实,因此在军方赢得了极多的好评。在厦门副市长、福州市委书记及福建省长任内,习近平也积累了丰富的对台工作经验。
由于习近平是中共元老、前全国人大副委员长习仲勋的儿子,因父辈的关系,他对退休老干部都非常尊重,在生活上给予诸多照顾和帮助,在退休元老中亦留下颇佳的口碑。完整的工作履历加上极佳的人脉关系,令习近平从众多的政治新秀中脱颖而出。
据悉,习近平行事低调,作风稳健,工作认真。在多次中央委员民意评比中,习的分数也是名列前茅。
习总其座右铭之一是“自豪不自满,昂扬不张扬,务实不浮躁”。其常对身边人指出,身为领导干部,要警惕个别人的所谓“感情投资”和形形色色的“公关”,对那些别有用心的“朋友”不能“心太软”,应该当断则断,更不能把那些歃盟结义、哥们义气、愚昧迷信等社会陋习带到生活和实际工作中来。
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