金钱动力学原理之一:钱是水,其他是舟
原理之二:钱用来流通,不用来囤积
原理之三:财富不以钱量,而以钱的流量来量
原理之四:信心乃钱流动之泵,财富乃信心的堤坝
假设世界之初:一千人站成一圈
每人手握一元钱,于是
开始了
顺时针每人把手中的钱
传给下一人
起初传得慢,一月循环一次
因此每人月入一千,月支一千
这点钱自是不够储蓄
但足以让人信心盈余(从手中一元到月入一千)
钱便传得顺手起来,一月传了两圈
于是每人月入两千,月支两千
挣得多花得多,痛快!
只要赚得动,不怕没储蓄
信心愈满,钱传愈快
假以时日,月入十万八万都是可待的
圈中流通的货币总量依然一千元
但是圈中人的财富已然增加了千万倍:
收入千万倍,花销千万倍,享受千万倍
(先不提自然资源也耗费了千万倍)
这个金钱动力学最
简单的模型,前提是人人
都尽量把挣来的钱花完
社会财富增值极大化
社会均富程度极大化
如果,如果
某人有了私欲,更可能由于脑中风
手脚反应迟钝了些
钱便开始在他手中囤积
流通货币量减少了,流通速度减慢了
双重效应
圈中人的平均财富大大减少
贫富分化越来越大
不再说下去了
囤积,是人类的一个恶习
时光囤积成历史
思想囤积成知识
我们还想通过婚姻
囤积爱情,那就像通过守财
来囤积财富
2009年来了,钱将流动得很慢
那就让爱情
流动得快一点吧
- Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/27/2008
好。不错的ZT。说出了一个不能再简单的道理。
流通是现代金融的生命。没有流通,就没有金融业。就象没有血液流通,人就没有生命。这就是为什么十年来IT工业的每一次飞跃,金融业就更上一个台阶。现在纽约伦敦的交易量,不是过去的网络和系统平台可以支撑的。限制了流速,就不会有发展。 - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/27/2008
中国的红包习俗看来很快就要改变了。 - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/27/2008
华尔街在全球金融中应起到一个心脏的作用,为流通提供推力,但现在看来它却是颗衰竭的给私欲梗阻的臃肿心脏,非但无利全球金融,还要别人为它起博。我不反对经济自由主义,但华尔街模式肯定是过时了。我非金融人士,但到今天华尔街把全球经济拖下水,影响到了人们生活的方方面面,那任谁都有权利对它评说几句了,即使我等说得再错,也没有那帮金融高管干得错。 - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/27/2008
就是,就是!你了不起,一元!一语中的!
一元 wrote:
华尔街在全球金融中应起到一个心脏的作用,为流通提供推力,但现在看来它却是颗衰竭的给私欲梗阻的臃肿心脏,非但无利全球金融,还要别人为它起博。我不反对经济自由主义,但华尔街模式肯定是过时了。我非金融人士,但到今天华尔街把全球经济拖下水,影响到了人们生活的方方面面,那任谁都有权利对它评说几句了,即使我等说得再错,也没有那帮金融高管干得错。 - posted on 12/28/2008
今年圣诞过得冷冷清清饥肠辘辘,来气。顺便说一下,楼顶不是ZT。
July wrote:
就是,就是!你了不起,一元!一语中的!
一元 wrote:
华尔街在全球金融中应起到一个心脏的作用,为流通提供推力,但现在看来它却是颗衰竭的给私欲梗阻的臃肿心脏,非但无利全球金融,还要别人为它起博。我不反对经济自由主义,但华尔街模式肯定是过时了。我非金融人士,但到今天华尔街把全球经济拖下水,影响到了人们生活的方方面面,那任谁都有权利对它评说几句了,即使我等说得再错,也没有那帮金融高管干得错。 - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/28/2008
这钱说得不错,还是诗体。我以为金融中信誉第一,唉,现在加油站都大量
收Cash,当然比信用卡便宜。 - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/28/2008
那是狗屎理论。 - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/28/2008
谢抬举,称狗屎就行了,这还远够不上理论。以后也许会的。
Chater21 wrote:
那是狗屎理论。 - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/28/2008
钱本身不是价值,但为了钱,大家拼命创造价值。
对钱的歧视,是对人性的歧视。对钱的膜拜,是对创造的肯定。
老邓看透了钱,才有今天中国的崛起。
- Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/28/2008
This is over-simplified and misleading. After all, the root of current crisis is the housing bubble, in which ordinary Joe and Jane are willing participants.
There is a classical book by Galbraith on money
Money: Whence It Came, Where It Went
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kenneth_Galbraith - posted on 12/28/2008
oversimplified, 是的;misleading,不敢当,从没想过要leading任何人,无非一点我思故我在的意思吧,另外也是抛砖引玉,金融风暴中09年将至,说一下钱也不过分吧,潜水的时候看见这里还是有几位金融专家的。其实本人对钱本身也没有什么大的兴趣,钱的背后实际还是人的问题,年景好,钱多点少点不成问题,谈钱有铜臭之嫌,年景不好,钱成了对生活的制约因素,甚至对健康,情感和高层次的精神追求都有影响。我也是信手而来,那个千人圈其实是个简单电脑模型,不多说了(从交通模型而来),反正一个极其简单的理想化的流通初始状态,在引入一些随机或者干扰因子后,行为就变得越来越复杂,贫富分化啦,金融崩溃啦似乎都可从中找到某些映射。这都不是我之本意,我的本意是想说金融操作者应该有种像医生一般的社会责任感,医生毕业前是否要进行个什么西波拉底宣誓(??,好像什么电影里看来的), 金融与民生的相关程度不比医疗低,为什么他们就可以这么胡做非为呢?华尔街那些庞大的经纪集团,靠吸信托人的血汗养肥自己,问心无愧吗?
pepper wrote:
This is over-simplified and misleading. After all, the root of current crisis is the housing bubble, in which ordinary Joe and Jane are willing participants.
There is a classical book by Galbraith on money
Money: Whence It Came, Where It Went
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kenneth_Galbraith - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 12/29/2008
和理论比起来,狗屎更好。 歌德说过,理论是灰色的 :-)
一元 wrote:
谢抬举,称狗屎就行了,这还远够不上理论。以后也许会的。
Chater21 wrote:
那是狗屎理论。 - posted on 12/29/2008
我们老百姓,就怕这种“你说得不对。请去学习XXX” - 然后给一个link的神神叨叨贴子。
咱们能不能说话具体一些。能不能用几句话先介绍一下那本书里面的什么精神值得我们老百姓去看。具体什么观点能称得上经典。我们老百姓,上网的目的是不看书,而不是看书。:)
相对而言,我觉得一元的贴子还更有用一些。
pepper wrote:
This is over-simplified and misleading. After all, the root of current crisis is the housing bubble, in which ordinary Joe and Jane are willing participants.
There is a classical book by Galbraith on money
Money: Whence It Came, Where It Went
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Kenneth_Galbraith - posted on 01/03/2009
This article from WSJ pretty much explains what happened.
Would You Pay $103,000 for This Arizona Fixer-Upper?
By MICHAEL M. PHILLIPS
AVONDALE, Ariz. -- The little blue house rests on a few pieces of wood and concrete block. The exterior walls, ravaged by dry rot, bend to the touch. At some point, someone jabbed a kitchen knife into the siding. The condemnation notice stapled to the wall says: "Unfit for human occupancy."
The story of the two-bedroom, one-bath shack on West Hopi Street, is the story of this year's financial panic, told in 576 square feet. It helps explain how a series of bad decisions can add up to the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.
Less than two years ago, Integrity Funding LLC, a local lender, gave a $103,000 mortgage to the owner, Marvene Halterman, an unemployed woman with a long list of creditors and, by her own account, a long history of drug and alcohol abuse. By the time the house went into foreclosure in August, Integrity had sold that loan to Wells Fargo & Co., which had sold it to a U.S. unit of HSBC Holdings PLC, which had packaged it with thousands of other risky mortgages and sold it in pieces to scores of investors.
Today, those investors will be lucky to get $15,000 back. That's only because the neighbors bought the house a few days ago, just to tear it down.
At the center of the saga is the 61-year-old Ms. Halterman, who has chaotic blond-gray hair, a smoky voice and an open manner both gruff and sweet. She grew up here, working at times as a farm hand, secretary, long-haul truck driver and nurse's aide.
In time, the container of vodka-and-grapefruit she long carried in her purse got the better of her. "Hard liquor was my downfall," she says.
As WSJ's Michael Phillips reports, a shack in Arizona with a $103,000 mortgage helps explain the economic mess we're in.
Ms. Halterman says she had her last drink on Jan. 3, 1996. These days, her beverage of choice is Pepsi.
She collects junk. Her yard at the West Hopi house was waist-high in clothes, tires, laundry baskets and broken furniture. In June, the city issued a citation for what the enforcement officer described as "an exorbitant amount of rubbish/debris/trash."
Ms. Halterman also collects people. At one time, she says, 23 people were living in the tiny house or various ramshackle outbuildings.
Her circle includes grandchildren, an old friend who lost her own home to foreclosure, a Chihuahua, and the one-year-old child of a woman Ms. Halterman's former foster-daughter met in jail.
In the mail recently, she noticed a newsletter sent by a state agency with an article titled "Raising Children of Incarcerated Parents, Part I."
"I need to read that one," she said aloud to herself.
She keeps the children in line with cuddles and mock threats. "You better put that shirt on, or that cop will come and take you to jail," she tells one. Another, whose father is in prison, was born with a heart problem related to his mother's drug use, Ms. Halterman says. She patiently nursed him to health.
"It took me forever to get him past 15 lbs.," she recalls.
Ms. Halterman hasn't had a job for about 13 years, she says. She receives about $3,000 a month from welfare programs, food stamps and disability payments related to a back injury.
"I may not have everything I want, but I have everything I need," she says.
Four decades ago, when she bought the West Hopi Street house for $3,500, Avondale was a small town built around cotton farms. From 2000 to 2005, the heart of the housing boom, it doubled in size to 70,000 residents.
Today, one in nine Avondale houses is in foreclosure or close to it.
Her lender, Integrity, was one of a flurry of small mortgage firms that sprang up nationwide during the boom, using loans from big banks to generate mortgages to resell to larger financial institutions. Whereas traditional mortgage lenders profit by collecting borrowers' monthly payments, Integrity made its money on fees and commissions.
The company was owned by Barry Rybicki, 37, a former loan officer who started it in 2003. Of the boom years, he says: "If you had a pulse, you were getting a loan."
When an Integrity telemarketer called Ms. Halterman in 2006, she was cash-strapped, owing $36,605 on a home-equity loan. The firm helped her get a $75,500 credit line from another lender.
Ms. Halterman used it to pay off her pickup, among other things. But soon she was struggling again.
In early 2007, she asked Integrity for help, Mr. Rybicki's records show. This time, Integrity itself provided a $103,000, 30-year mortgage. It had an adjustable rate that started at 9.25% and was capped at 15.25%, according to loan documents.
It was one of 197 loans Integrity originated last year, totaling almost $47 million.
For a $350 fee, an appraiser hired by Integrity, Michael T. Asher, valued the house at $132,000. Mr. Asher says although he didn't personally believe the house was worth that much, he followed standard procedures and found like-sized homes nearby that had sold in that price range in 2006.
"I can't appraise it for the future," Mr. Asher says. "I appraise it for that day."
T.J. Heagy, a real-estate agent later hired to sell the property, says he can find only one comparable house that sold nearby in 2007, for $63,000.
At closing, on Feb. 26, 2007, Integrity collected $6,153 in underwriting, broker, loan-origination, document, application, processing, funding and flood-certification fees, mortgage documents show. A few days later, Integrity transferred the loan to Wells Fargo, earning $3,090 more, Mr. Rybicki says.
Kevin Waetke, of Wells Fargo Home & Consumer Finance Group, said in a written statement that "it appears that the appraisal ... confirms that the property values were fully supported at the time the loan closed."
Mr. Rybicki says neither he nor his loan officer ever saw the blue house. When shown a picture last month, he said: "Wow."
The rear of Ms. Halterman's home, in a photo taken by a city code-enforcement officer around the time the eviction was served.
"When you have 50 employees, as much as you are responsible for holding their hands, you just can't," Mr. Rybicki says.
After the fees and her other debts were paid, Ms. Halterman walked away from closing with $11,090.33.
Ms. Halterman says she spent it on new flooring, a fence, minor repairs and food. "No steak or lobster," she says, "hamburger and chicken."
Soon the money was gone.
Within a few months she grew worried the rickety house wasn't safe for children. She moved to a rental nearby. Her son Leslie Merritt took up residence at West Hopi Street and assumed responsibility for the $881 monthly payments.
When Wells Fargo sold Ms. Halterman's loan to London-based HSBC, it got bundled with 4,050 other mortgages and used as collateral for a security issued in July 2007. More than 85% of the mortgages were, like Ms. Halterman's, "subprime" loans to borrowers with blemished credit, according to Tom Atteberry of First Pacific Advisors LLC, a Los Angeles investment-management company.
Credit-ratings firms Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service gave the new security their top "triple-A" ratings, which suggested investors were extremely likely to get their money back plus interest. S&P declined to explain its assessment. A Moody's spokesman didn't respond to requests for comment.
Thus was Ms. Halterman's diminutive blue house tossed into the immense sea of mortgage-backed securities that would eventually imperil the U.S. financial system. Some $4.1 trillion in American mortgages were put into securities such as these between 2005 and 2006, including $1.6 trillion in subprime or other high-risk home loans, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.
Among other investors, the Teachers' Retirement System of Oklahoma bought $500,000 of the new security, according to chief investment officer Bill Puckett. Also buying in was bond-giant Pacific Investment Management Co., which declined to comment.
Soon, Ms. Halterman's son, Mr. Merritt, says he stopped paying the mortgage. He had slipped back into his methamphetamine addiction. "I lost interest in pretty much everything except my habit and the girl I was seeing," he says. Mr. Merritt is now in prison for trafficking in stolen copper pipe.
In January, Ms. Halterman stepped back in and made the last mortgage payment. Foreclosure began in May. September brought eviction.
Ms. Halterman says she wishes she had never taken out the first home-equity loan. "I felt like I needed it," she says. "In retrospect, I needed my a -- kicked."
Other loans backing the HSBC-issued security were souring, as well. As of November, 25% were foreclosed, in the foreclosure process or at least a month delinquent, Mr. Atteberry says.
HSBC declined to comment.
Mr. Rybicki gave up his mortgage-banking license in September. He now works for a venture-capital firm.
"The banks have part of the blame," Mr. Rybicki says of the housing bubble. "I think we have part of the blame. We were part of the system. So does the consumer."
Wells Fargo, which serviced the West Hopi Street loan, boarded up the house and hauled away the debris. And this past Monday, the property sold for $18,000 to Daniel and Delia Arce, who live next door in a tidy brick rambler. After expenses, investors in the mortgage-backed security will probably divide up no more than $15,000 in proceeds.
A few weeks ago, Mr. Arce asked Mike Summers, a city code-enforcement officer, whether a permit was required to raze the blue house.
"Yes," Mr. Summers replied, "but all you need is the big, bad wolf to come out and huff and puff." - posted on 01/03/2009
pepper wrote:
This article from WSJ pretty much explains what happened.
这篇帖子究竟解释了什么呢?简直是浪费时间。这跟一元原来的帖子有什么关系吗?说的是八杆子能打得着的同一回事情吗?
pepper推荐的这篇破文章中,有什么新鲜的我们所不知道的事情吗?不就是美国次贷的一个简单基本的没有人现在不知道的小例子吗?还是说我们中间还有一些同志,由于对英文的几十年如一日的不变的生疏感,所以每当看见一篇稿子,只要是用英文写的,就总也免不了如临大师提壶灌顶地生出崇拜和尊敬感来?:)
虽然本月刚刚开始,但我认为pepper同志已经可以被评为是本月最令人失望的ZT员。建议处罚: 三个月不许ZT任何贴子,只能用自己的嘴说话。没时间就少说两句。简直是浪费我的上网时间。:)
ps. 这篇帖子如果是最近WSJ才放出来的马后小跑,那我不得不说,WSJ水平真低。不看也罢。 - Re: 说一下钱吧posted on 01/03/2009
令胡冲 is not only hard to please, he is unteachable, as far as money is concerned.
The classical book such as Money is too hard to him. Today's WSJ front page story , in which one can see how the money flows, is too trivial for him. I have to give up.
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