Yes America needs fresh blood!!!
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/04/2008
I like him better than Clinton, but he said he would ban all toys made in China... - posted on 01/04/2008
你能确定是obama 不是osama吗?
OK, 认真地说. 媒体说的Obama wins Iowa是不准确的. 由于民主党采用比较复杂的选举机制, 严格地说Obama是在Iowa州领先. 也就是, 应该说leads in Iowa. 相反, 共和党由于采用赢者通吃(winner-take-all)的方法, 所以它的领先候选人可以说成 wins Iowa.
其实, 不仅仅是Iowa州的政党基层会议选举(Iowa Caucus), 在大部分州, 民主党只有领先者, 没有赢家, 因为民主党不采用赢者通吃的方法. 除了排名第一的候选人, 其他候选人也按比例可以获得相当数量的支持他们的代表(delegate)参加全国代表大会, 来决定最后的总统候选人.
大名鼎鼎的Iowa Caucus的情况更复杂. 今天的结果只是选举过程的第一步, 选举基层代表. 还有第二步, 这些代表再选举更高一层的代表. 而且在Iowa, 如果你支持的民主党总统候选人得不到15%的支持, 你可以有第二次机会从领先的前几名的候选人里再选一个. 比如(假如), 今天那些得票1%, 2%, 3%的候选人的支持者可以在今后几天去选排名第二的希莱莉.
当然, 说领先也好, 说赢得也好, 民主党在这个州的民意的雏形基本定下来了.
touche wrote:
Yes America needs fresh blood!!! - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/04/2008
st dude:OK, 认真地说. 媒体说的Obama wins Iowa是不准确的. 由于民主党采用比较复杂的选举机制, 严格地说Obama是在Iowa州领先. 也就是, 应该说leads in Iowa. 相反, 共和党由于采用赢者通吃(winner-take-all)的方法, 所以它的领先候选人可以说成 wins Iowa.
老圣高见。
还是那句话:外行看热闹,内行看门道。现在是民主党和共和党逐鹿中原,但究竟鹿死谁手,还得看下回New Hampshire。 - posted on 01/05/2008
唉, 现在忙于愚乐,疏于严肃学习。以前我对美国政治是很认真研究的。
我希望奥巴马赢,依我的直觉,这比较符合美国精神。
希拉里或朱利亚尼,虽然都是出色的政治家,但有点象我们的秋雨教授和王蒙部长,愚乐时代的人是不喜欢他们的。
我感到,美国人是极其愚乐的,最典型的就是那“美国偶像”节目, “朋友”也比较愚乐。
美国总统首要任务就是要给人以愚乐,要不美国人就不会选小布什而选戈尔了。
对于政治家,不要关心他们说什么,他们说是为了人民愚乐。但他们做是很理性的,我敢打赌,如果奥巴马真当了美国总统,绝不会禁中国的玩具。
:)
guanzhong wrote:
I like him better than Clinton, but he said he would ban all toys made in China... - posted on 01/06/2008
关于希拉里竞选策略的致命缺陷,我想请教图教授,赵主编,悟空等咖啡政治小资。
希拉里竞选策略的致命缺陷之一,认为奥巴马没有经验。
根本上,每个人都是很自信的。(这在金融投资领域就很明显,基本而言,投资者都是 overconfidence )。 对于没做过的事,人们其实都是有信心把它做好的,因此,指责他人没经验,实际是一种欠修养的表现,这也比较容易引起旁观者的反感,同时旁观者也容易同情被指责的人。 这就是所谓的逆反心理。
希拉里竞选策略的致命缺陷之二,打克林顿牌。
同样,对于自信的人而言,念念不忘过去是江郎才尽的征兆。自信的美国人肯定不喜欢候选人大谈特谈过去有什么成绩,而是希望看到候选人对未来有什么独特的见解。
所以,我大胆预测,奥巴马最终会击败希拉里,并预测奥巴马会改写历史成为美国总统。
奥巴马如能成为美国总统,起历史意义在于:不管白人还是黑人,黄人还是红人,其智力,情商,创造性等,本质上是没什么区别的。
touche wrote:
Yes America needs fresh blood!!! - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/06/2008
我是Obama的铁杆支持者,并不希望希拉里赢,但最终结果有可能希拉里当总统,Obama当副总统,这样的话,也挺好,这是我对选举结果的猜测。希拉里这样的女人非常需要Obama作形象,她若心胸开阔,应该知道这一点。
我不喜欢希拉里,句号。作为政治家,她缺少凝聚力,野心以及权术都太昭显。
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/06/2008
我也铁杆Obama。我的预测是,Obama当总统,Clinton当副总统。很不喜欢希拉里的做派,但她是个不错的辅佐者。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/06/2008
就冲MAYA, 苦瓜都不喜欢Hillary Clinton , 就算我不知道她是谁, 凭咖啡的经验判断, 我觉着我都可能会喜欢她:) 真的是玩笑.
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/06/2008
I agree.
abc wrote:
我希望奥巴马赢,依我的直觉,这比较符合美国精神。 - posted on 01/07/2008
还是那句话:外行看热闹,内行看门道。
那要看"看的目的"是什么了. 如果是象我一样, 感兴趣的是看这个国家的政治面貌而不是太看重选举结果, 我倒是觉得外行看大选(general),内行看初选(primary)。等到了大选时候, 只有两方竞选. 竞选的平台变了, 变得很粗. "统一战线" 拉得太长. 掩盖了很多重大分歧. 初选时有几十个人, 几十个竞选平台, 更准确反映民意. 这和看橄榄球比赛一样. 只看最后的superbowl一场比赛的人往往都是看热闹的"外行". 内行人赛季中每一场普通的比赛都不放过.
现在是民主党和共和党逐鹿中原,但究竟鹿死谁手,还得看下回New Hampshire。
对新手/黑马/弱者/挑战者的确是鹿死谁手. 他们必须靠赢得此州造势.生死攸关,如果失利基本上就被淘汰了. 但对实力强大的老手, 对在全国民意测验中领先的人, 他们在此州还输得起. 希拉里还是输得起New Hampshire和Iowa. 朱利亚尼根本就放弃 Iowa, 不浪费任何时间和金钱. 对New Hampshire也不是非常重视.
retro wrote:
老圣高见。
还是那句话:外行看热闹,内行看门道。现在是民主党和共和党逐鹿中原,但究竟鹿死谁手,还得看下回New Hampshire。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
我是Obama的铁杆支持者,
Obama的支持者好象以年轻人居多. 看来我们Cafe里的玛雅,touche, guanzhong, 苦瓜和老A 都有一颗年轻的心.
玛雅 wrote:
我是Obama的铁杆支持者,并不希望希拉里赢 - posted on 01/07/2008
对于政治家,不要关心他们说什么,他们说是为了人民愚乐。但他们做是很理性的,我敢打赌,如果奥巴马真当了美国总统,绝不会禁中国的玩具。
说得对.他们都知道老百姓最想听到什么, 当然会说人们最想听到的话了. 这是老百姓认识政治家最难的地方.所以要看他的记录,他实际做了些什么, 他的基本理念是什么. 禁中国的玩具这话对有些选民听起来很痛快. 可稍有一点common sense,也不需要什么理性就知道这根本不可能.
abc wrote:
唉, 现在忙于愚乐,疏于严肃学习。以前我对美国政治是很认真研究的。 - posted on 01/07/2008
老圣的政治觉悟就是高。
且不论竞选者的治国理念如何,但奥巴马的政治口号:“Obama For Change” 切中美国人厌倦战争,人心思变的心态。Iowa一战,奥巴马的“势”已成局,而且似乎“势”不可挡。而希拉里,如老圣所言,政治资本雄厚,富于经验,况且善用女性优势,反扑力量不可小觑。
民主党前三位候选人在Iowa的选票差距不大,所以,说奥巴马胜卷在握,还是言之过早。看来,好戏在后头哪!
如果说大选结果,我个人看好Huckelbee。此人有政治手腕,善用民意资源,作派老练深刻,共和党内无人企及。如无意外,Huckelbee将轻松赢得党内选战,以逸待劳迎战民主党。若是对阵奥巴马,胜算绝无差迟。
st dude wrote:
还是那句话:外行看热闹,内行看门道。那要看"看的目的"是什么了. 如果是象我一样, 感兴趣的是看这个国家的政治面貌而不是太看重选举结果, 我倒是觉得外行看大选(general),内行看初选(primary)。等到了大选时候, 只有两方竞选. 竞选的平台变了, 变得很粗. "统一战线" 拉得太长. 掩盖了很多重大分歧. 初选时有几十个人, 几十个竞选平台, 更准确反映民意. 这和看橄榄球比赛一样. 只看最后的superbowl一场比赛的人往往都是看热闹的"外行". 内行人赛季中每一场普通的比赛都不放过.
现在是民主党和共和党逐鹿中原,但究竟鹿死谁手,还得看下回New Hampshire。对新手/黑马/弱者/挑战者的确是鹿死谁手. 他们必须靠赢得此州造势.生死攸关,如果失利基本上就被淘汰了. 但对实力强大的老手, 对在全国民意测验中领先的人, 他们在此州还输得起. 希拉里还是输得起New Hampshire和Iowa. 朱利亚尼根本就放弃 Iowa, 不浪费任何时间和金钱. 对New Hampshire也不是非常重视.
retro wrote:
老圣高见。
还是那句话:外行看热闹,内行看门道。现在是民主党和共和党逐鹿中原,但究竟鹿死谁手,还得看下回New Hampshire。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
管他谁上去,最好是民主党,得有些变化才行。
美国目前搞得很虚伪,流氓地痞,有点当年抓阶级斗争的架式。
这样下去,也可以搞一场文革了。 - posted on 01/07/2008
当代很多美国人同 Julius Caesar 时代的罗马人没什么不同,Marcus Antonius 了解他们,一篇煽情的在Caesar 葬礼上的讲演,几分钟,table turned over.
Words can inspire, so they can deceit.
American politicians are well trained to play games (including how to speak, except Bush); very few of them have vision.
st dude wrote:
对于政治家,不要关心他们说什么,他们说是为了人民愚乐。但他们做是很理性的,我敢打赌,如果奥巴马真当了美国总统,绝不会禁中国的玩具。说得对.他们都知道老百姓最想听到什么, 当然会说人们最想听到的话了. 这是老百姓认识政治家最难的地方.所以要看他的记录,他实际做了些什么, 他的基本理念是什么. 禁中国的玩具这话对有些选民听起来很痛快. 可稍有一点common sense,也不需要什么理性就知道这根本不可能.
abc wrote:
唉, 现在忙于愚乐,疏于严肃学习。以前我对美国政治是很认真研究的。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
美国确实是个了不起的国家。还远不到衰落的时候。:)
我看希拉里募了那么多的钱,心想这回大概肯定是她了。没想到,选民还真不是只看资历和钱。这个国家真是厉害,一点都不怀念克林顿时期,至少不买那个帐,认为干得好是应该的。到时候该换还是换。:) - posted on 01/07/2008
来美国很多年了,到上次选举为止,似乎没有喜欢过一个总统候选人。当初第一次遭遇选举,就是克林顿,非常不喜欢他的形象,从传统的思维角度来看,那种形象真是挺流氓的。克林顿当选后,看过一次他媳妇的演讲,关于医疗改革的,讲得相当空洞,但当时并没有引起恶感,只是觉得没太大的势气。
后来生儿子的时候在家坐月子,难得有时间看几分钟电视。但是每天打开电视就是克林顿向世界人民道歉的镜头,和希拉力带着墨镜痛苦地坚持。多么无聊的一届总统,除了点儿家庭琐事,还料不料理国家大事了。
从那以后就见不得这对夫妻的样子,几乎是两个没有自己理念的人,站在那么高的位置上,于社会何益?但是这些人并不因为有人不爱看就躲在家里,相反,他们的事业就是出来恶心大众。希拉力出来竞选总统,再不愿意看到她,也很难百分之百地躲过去,实在是有些无孔不入的劲头。偶尔实在不得已看到了,就会难受很久,是那种生理厌恶(我几次琢磨自己是否有同性恋倾向,对某些同性如此反感?)。我把她的言词基本上总结成:即便她24小时不停地说(事实上她几乎做到了),你还是找不到任何实质性的东西。她令人想起了咱那假大空的童年。若是回到当初的中国时代,她大概相当于没有(于人类有益的)头脑却有(个人)追求的妇女队长。这些伎俩,我们看着长大的。
还好,美国社会几十年的繁荣,还是培养了一些人才,这些人才中也碰巧有一部分走进了政坛。终于在2007年看到了Obama的参选,第一次对总统竞选人有了兴趣。Obama的价值在于他的信念。了解他是从读他的书开始的,接着是看到他的太太的演讲。跟克林顿夫妇相反,Obama夫妻都相当有内容。从社会的底层来,却不以迎合上层社会为方式向社会的顶层攀登,并且站到了一定的高度,这本身也算是这个社会的荣耀。
原本只是默默欣赏Obama夫妇(从自己一分钱掰成10 瓣花的账号里拿出少许捐助也是欣赏的一部分),对美国的公民投票不抱希望,想着万一希拉力当选,自己就想办法移民他国,连孩子们的外语都开始抓了。爱娃的投票结果还真是让我身心一爽。
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
苦瓜 wrote:
原本只是默默欣赏Obama夫妇(从自己一分钱掰成10 瓣花的账号里拿出少许捐助也是欣赏的一部分),对美国的公民投票不抱希望,想着万一希拉力当选,自己就想办法移民他国,连孩子们的外语都开始抓了。爱娃的投票结果还真是让我身心一爽。
这简直就是奥巴马啦啦队的中文队长。也有点太夸张了吧。
奥巴马的“信念”究竟是什么呢?能不能给我们实话实说地介绍一下。要是自由、平等博爱、美国梦之类的,就不必了。:) - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
我理解的他们的信念是:努力帮助美国人民减轻生活中的挣扎。
美国人民比起世界上很多国家的人民生活算不错的,但是这个国家在退步,普通人的生活有太多的挣扎。从老的制造业的衰退,到硅谷这种劳动密集型苦力集中营,跟世界上很多发达国家相比,这里的人民病了没钱医,老了没人养,年轻力壮的日子,倾其所有也就勉强把孩子拉扯到大学毕业。
上个星期刚去了伦敦,去剑桥划船的时候,撑船的小伙子跟游客谈到英国学生上大学的费用,顺便同情了一把美国人民养孩子上学的艰难。哎,我们已经受到世界劳苦大众的关注。
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
选总统是给选民心理爽爽的机会。真的谁当了总统干系并不大。大不了让布什再连任四年。还能差到什么地方去?;)
克林顿属于过去。克林顿时代已经是passe。她说:I am so ready to lead。选民说:Yeah? That you have always wanted to be the president isn't a good reason to let you have it。
希望欧巴马一路滚雪球,把其他候选人一路辗扁了。
至于竞选说点蠢话没关系。布什说了一辈子蠢话也没关系。
民主党的副总统候选人,我看比尔*里查森很有希望。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
当心两颗子弹 - posted on 01/07/2008
苦瓜 wrote:
我理解的他们的信念是:努力帮助美国人民减轻生活中的挣扎。
美国人民比起世界上很多国家的人民生活算不错的,但是这个国家在退步,普通人的生活有太多的挣扎。从老的制造业的衰退,到硅谷这种劳动密集型苦力集中营,跟世界上很多发达国家相比,这里的人民病了没钱医,老了没人养,年轻力壮的日子,倾其所有也就勉强把孩子拉扯到大学毕业。
上个星期刚去了伦敦,去剑桥划船的时候,撑船的小伙子跟游客谈到英国学生上大学的费用,顺便同情了一把美国人民养孩子上学的艰难。哎,我们已经受到世界劳苦大众的关注。
Sigh. That just sound too wonderful.
If you are totally innocent here to present us your understandings as such, and yourself did get this feeling from Obama, this guy got to be the president. :)
I am in England and I have exactly the same feeling with you. Ooh my goodness, what if England got these talents. :) - posted on 01/07/2008
英国人民不一样,他们经历了罗马立法与修辞的。;)
LHC wrote:
苦瓜 wrote:Sigh. That just sound too wonderful.
我理解的他们的信念是:努力帮助美国人民减轻生活中的挣扎。
美国人民比起世界上很多国家的人民生活算不错的,但是这个国家在退步,普通人的生活有太多的挣扎。从老的制造业的衰退,到硅谷这种劳动密集型苦力集中营,跟世界上很多发达国家相比,这里的人民病了没钱医,老了没人养,年轻力壮的日子,倾其所有也就勉强把孩子拉扯到大学毕业。
上个星期刚去了伦敦,去剑桥划船的时候,撑船的小伙子跟游客谈到英国学生上大学的费用,顺便同情了一把美国人民养孩子上学的艰难。哎,我们已经受到世界劳苦大众的关注。
If you are totally innocent here to present us your understandings as such, and yourself did get this feeling from Obama, this guy got to be the president. :)
I am in England and I have exactly the same feeling with you. Ooh my goodness, what if England got these talents. :) - posted on 01/07/2008
LHC wrote:
Sigh. That just sound too wonderful.
If you are totally innocent here to present us your understandings as such, and yourself did get this feeling from Obama, this guy got to be the president. :)
I am in England and I have exactly the same feeling with you. Ooh my goodness, what if England got these talents. :)
凡事还真得有些天真的热情。太拧巴了,写文字好看,对自己身心不利:)
Obama是不是有能力改变美国的现状,不是关键,关键的是他有这个心思。这个心思其他候选人没有,或者没能让我看出来,我只能根据我的理解和判断来选择,选择一种思维方式(若是没有选择,就学我女儿坚决不换尿布)。有了这个心思,至少会做某种努力。历史有时候就是这么简单,有人看到了一个方向,大家蜂拥而至,历史就顺着走。当然蜂拥而至的过程有可能是上千年的积累。
英国给我的印象很好,走在伦敦的街上感到自己有些痴呆,大概是美国人欠缺那种历史感,也不够机警。看到街上的黑人,还想起来这里谁(从欧洲上网的人)曾经提到美国的黑人很出色,其实每次去欧洲都会觉得那里的黑人、白人都比美国人机灵。美国整体来说,黑人的处境很糟。
美国的统治者加上商业机制鼓励民众愚昧,长远看,这大概是这个国家最致命的问题(如果你们国家也这样,那也是你们致命的问题)。旧金山的公共交通很差,讨论修铁路进国际机场的议题时,反对的声音是:这样会影响机场停车的收入。然后这个铁路就修不成。简单说这是利益分配的结果,复杂说,所有的人去机场都没了方便的工具。很像中国的空气污染,没有污染就没有一部分人的快速发迹,结果是发迹的人也享受污染的空气。历史要后人写才比较公正,利益的分配也要有人跳出分配的圈子来权衡才比较温和。否则,你砍我一块肉,我扒你一层皮的利益分割,就不需要文字这种东西了。咱美国人民还是向往文明的。
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
刚从街上回来,报箱里的新报纸,克林顿输了NH.
希拉莉没有Bill.Clinton的真诚,这是他们不同的地方。可能因为出身不同。Bill.Clinton对低层老百姓有一种与生俱来的同情和真诚。 - posted on 01/07/2008
ben ben wrote:Let me try to understand, are you saying you like whoever Maya and kugua do not like? :-)
就冲MAYA, 苦瓜都不喜欢Hillary Clinton , 就算我不知道她是谁, 凭咖啡的经验判断, 我觉着我都可能会喜欢她:) 真的是玩笑.
One reason why I also prefer Obama to Clinton is their views of the Iraq war. Obviously Obama is more sincere. Most politicians care more about how others think about them, Clinton is no exception. But Obama voiced his view even when it was not popular at the time.
I used to worry about Obama's electability, but now this worry may seem unfounded.
Go Obama, Go! - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/07/2008
苦瓜 wrote:
英国给我的印象很好,走在伦敦的街上感到自己有些痴呆,大概是美国人欠缺那种历史感,也不够机警。看到街上的黑人,还想起来这里谁(从欧洲上网的人)曾经提到美国的黑人很出色,其实每次去欧洲都会觉得那里的黑人、白人都比美国人机灵。美国整体来说,黑人的处境很糟。
I also like the Brits more than the Americans, they are in general more intellectual and witty, but I don't think I can stand living there, too spoiled by the American way of living :-) - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
Yes!Me too。
guanzhong wrote:
One reason why I also prefer Obama to Clinton is their views of the Iraq war. Obviously Obama is more sincere. Most politicians care more about how others think about them, Clinton is no exception. But Obama voiced his view even when it was not popular at the time.
Go Obama, Go! - posted on 01/08/2008
"Obama won his Iowa victory on a promise of bringing change to Washington, trumping Clinton's stress on experience. She has struggled to find her footing in the days since, at the same time insisting she is in the race to stay.
Her husband, the former president, pointed out the obvious Sunday night in remarks before a college audience. "We can't be a new story," he said, speaking in something of a jocular tone. "I can't make her younger, taller, male."
Still, Sen. Clinton's aides have urged her to show more passion and emotion — including laughter — to give voters a sense of her warmer side."
几点感想。
1。 我还是很佩服克林顿。 奥巴马也好,希拉里也好,最终都不会给美国带来太大的变化。 不过克林顿好象还是暗示奥巴马有帅哥的优势,这再次显示克林顿诚实的地方。
2。看希拉里这个过气明星,与奥巴马这个政治新星PK, 旁观者心里会生出些许酸楚。
3。 美国的文化确实有它极其先进的地方,能产生奥巴马这样的政治新星。 记得4年前台湾地区的选举,当时马英九最具人气,但连爷爷硬是不让马帅哥上,结果过去的马帅哥现在已变成马大叔了。 唉!
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
Yes, Yes, 去欧州之前,总以为美国土,傻,笨,没品味,可去了欧州,才知道还是美国好啊。。。就是布什再连任,我也还要住在美国 :-)
guanzhong wrote:
I also like the Brits more than the Americans, they are in general more intellectual and witty, but I don't think I can stand living there, too spoiled by the American way of living :-) - posted on 01/08/2008
各个国家各个种族的人,其实是一样聪明,一样笨,一样善良,一样邪恶。
一个地方的人表现得越机灵,表明该地方的社会制度越不完善,即对人性恶的方面管理不够。
美国人表现得最傻,意味美国社会制度最完善。 美国人只会比其它国家的人更机灵而不是相反。 :)
July wrote:
Yes, Yes, 去欧州之前,总以为美国土,傻,笨,没品味,可去了欧州,才知道还是美国好啊。。。就是布什再连任,我也还要住在美国 :-)
guanzhong wrote:
I also like the Brits more than the Americans, they are in general more intellectual and witty, but I don't think I can stand living there, too spoiled by the American way of living :-) - posted on 01/08/2008
今年忙,我又不关心政治了。我觉得 Obama 选不上。美国人象我这样不动脑子的人很多。我不是美国人,没发言权,但我在密西根住过四年,跟中西部中年中产阶级男的白人交往过,我知道美国选举是怎么回事了。八年前,我在报纸上看了 Bush 和 Gore 的照片,就知道 Gore 肯定选不上。还听说 Gore 就想做总统,我对他的印象就差了。后来 Gore 没赢,我还挺幸灾乐祸。这次也一样。我不看新闻,只看到几个候选人的照片。Obama 看起来是黑人,又年轻,年轻的黑人肯定选不上。Hillary 是女人,女人也选不上,何况他又是 Clinton 的太太,不喜欢 Clinton 的人更不会喜欢他太太。美国人看人只看表面,根本不会动脑筋听你说什么,听也听不懂,而且不喜欢认错。自从我读了 Micheal Moore 的 Stupid White Men 以后,我也基本同意他说的,民主党和共和党候选人都差不多,选出的总统换汤不换药。当然象 Bush 这样的汤还是太糟一些的。另外,前两年看小说 Middlesex,作者说美国人喜欢总统名字不超过两个音节的:
"Dukakis." A name with more than two vowels in it running for President! The last time that had happened was Eisenhower (who looked good on a tank). Generally speaking, Americans like their presidents to have no more than two vowels. Truman. Johnson. Nixon. Clinton. If they have more than two vowels (Reagan), they can have no more than two syllables. Even better is one syllable and one vowel: Bush. Had to do that twice. Why did Mario Cuomo decide against running for President? What conclusion did he come to as he withdrew to think the matter through? Unlike Michael Dukakis, who was from academic Massachusetts, Mario Cuomo was from New York and knew what was what. Cuomo knew he'd never win. Too liberal for the moment, certainly. But also: too many vowels.
八年前,我的爱人说 McCain 是好人,但他没过初选。听说这次他又出来选了,虽然年纪大一些,我还是希望他能胜出,因为我的爱人的年纪也很大了。
我胡说一气,但我相信美国很多选民也象我一样不懂乱来的。美国政选就是用来乱搞的。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
准确地说,有相当多美国人看人只看表面,根本不会动脑筋听你说什么,听也听不懂。
所以政客们都谙熟Mark Antony 的funeral eulogy for Caesar.
从另一个角度说,美国国人在选the most likable person from all candidates, 不是在选总统。
阿姗 wrote:
美国人看人只看表面,根本不会动脑筋听你说什么,听也听不懂,
美国政选就是用来乱搞的。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
Obama is probably better than clinton, but not much.
I am very disppointed by the demo party, and I am afraid that they will lose again. Basically demo party has lost the connection with the middle class. - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
July wrote:
Yes, Yes, 去欧州之前,总以为美国土,傻,笨,没品味,可去了欧州,才知道还是美国好啊。。。就是布什再连任,我也还要住在美国 :-)
哈!闹了半天大伙都是叶公好龙,意大利法兰西的一通乱夸,最后还是赖在没文化没历史没品位的土老帽美国。:-) - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
"Some people think elections are a game," said the former first lady, her voice breaking again.
"It is about our country, it is about our kids' futures," she said, in a moment which appeared unscripted and spontaneous.
美国总统选举是一个很好玩却没有太多负面作用的游戏,而其它国家或地区的总统选举则大多是很不好玩且有很多负面作用的游戏。 这是美国与其它国家的重要差别。
美国总统选举真是太好玩了,我老A要去那里找愚乐了.:) - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
以我对美国的游客观光水平,原以为Hillary与Obama搭档,一正一副,一女一黑,dream team 耶,最好当选后再任命个印地安人当国务卿,正是我理想的美国.....
可是你们大多数同学说Hillary 不真诚,不够格?Obama 比她强,诶诶,我糊涂了。谁能给咱扫扫盲,先谢了! - posted on 01/08/2008
pepper wrote:
Obama is probably better than clinton, but not much.
I am very disppointed by the demo party, and I am afraid that they will lose again. Basically demo party has lost the connection with the middle class.
I am disappointed that the demos don't have a better candidate, but I not sure if it 's a good idea to have all the three branches in the demo's hands.
Obama has been calling for change. What changes is he talking about? Please can anyone enlighten me a bit?
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
这条线好玩,我也希望obama赢得选举,不因为别的,就因为我不喜欢希拉克那种人。嘿嘿。 - posted on 01/08/2008
abc wrote:
各个国家各个种族的人,其实是一样聪明,一样笨,一样善良,一样邪恶。
一个地方的人表现得越机灵,表明该地方的社会制度越不完善,即对人性恶的方面管理不够。
美国人表现得最傻,意味美国社会制度最完善。 美国人只会比其它国家的人更机灵而不是相反。 :)
这话说的太绝对。第一,从制度上说,美国决不比英国西欧更完善。第二,在人口比例上说,美国更保守,比如至今为进化论和神创论或它的变种 intelligent design(ID) 吵闹不休,欧洲人大概不会在这种事情上浪费时间了!我可能不在乎布什这种也相信 ID “理论”的傻B当总统,可如果身边这种愚民太多,我可能真会考虑搬家的。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
二老板 wrote:
Obama has been calling for change. What changes is he talking about? Please can anyone enlighten me a bit?
end the current stupid foreign policy, mend the relationship with middle east countries, the country will be much safer then.
I will be happy to see a black president in white house.
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
:)
说美国人比英国人笨等,本来就是一种调侃的话或风凉话,所以说美国制度比英国完善也是不能太当真的。 :)
不过我还是认为,民风淳朴存在于两种地方,没有什么利益可争的落后地区,或者利益很多但有完善的制度协调利益冲突与利益分配。我感到美国就属于后者。
guanzhong wrote: - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
选举政治是一种大众愚乐游戏,是一种大众感性行为而不是一种理性行为。
在选举政治里,政治家的激情而不是理性显得特别重要。这不禁让我重新想起了希特勒,这个选举政治的明星。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
友情提示一个笔误:是希拉里而不是希拉克,后者是法国总统。:)
看来要把政治小资当得象回事也不是那么容易的。:)
xiaoman wrote:
这条线好玩,我也希望obama赢得选举,不因为别的,就因为我不喜欢希拉克那种人。嘿嘿。 - posted on 01/08/2008
Iowa一战,奥巴马的“势”已成局,而且似乎“势”不可挡。而希拉里,如老圣所言,政治资本雄厚,富于经验,况且善用女性优势,反扑力量不可小觑。
不知道你注意了没有? 前几个月的民意测验都说, 黑人还是支持希拉里比支持奥巴马的多. 支持奥巴马的黑人都是小资和精英, 而广大的中下层黑人还是支持希拉里. Iowa的黑人很少, 所以希拉里还是很有资本.
希拉里的女性优势在哪里? 好象café里的女性没有对她有好感的. 圣太太也有类似非议. 让我感到希拉里很倒霉. 说倒底, 都是克林顿造成的. 如果希拉里这次失利, 克林顿等于毁了两个人的政治前途. 当年高尔一直把当年输给布什的原因归咎于克林顿丑闻对他竞选的负面影响.
如果说大选结果,我个人看好Huckelbee。你一定看中了他的伶俐口才和真诚的表情. 我也觉得他和Obama是所有候选人里口才最好的. Obama可能律师口气稍微重一点但是演讲风度比Huck高很多. Huck可能更幽默一点. 他是牧师出身, 当然有口才了. 但是他在重大问题上有很被动的地方. 移民问题,政府开支, 对待犯罪态度温和等这些问题上, Huck都是很有争议的. 也许Iowa的选民忽视这些问题. 一旦到了佛州, 加州,德州这些高非法移民和高犯罪率的大州, 共和党选民绝对不会放过这些问题.
移民问题, 赤字问题, 政府开销问题,能源(石油)问题这些绝对是竞选的最主要问题. 相反, 伊拉克战争问题, 虽然仍然是一个很大问题, 但是谁要是以此为主要平台竞选, 谁就失算了.
retro wrote: - posted on 01/08/2008
American politicians are well trained to play games (including how to speak, except Bush); very few of them have vision.
克林顿就是眼睛时刻盯着poll, 看民意测验办公的总统.
但也有不play games的总统呀. 小布不就是吗?
是不是play games的总统愚乐, 不play games的总统愚蠢?
LM wrote:
当代很多美国人同 Julius Caesar 时代的罗马人没什么不同,Marcus Antonius 了解他们,一篇煽情的在Caesar 葬礼上的讲演,几分钟,table turned over.
Words can inspire, so they can deceit.
American politicians are well trained to play games (including how to speak, except Bush); very few of them have vision. - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
苦瓜都在做第二手准备啦? 希拉力一旦当选就走人? 这苦瓜是命苦还是一山望着另一山高? 我相信你有本事走遍天下, 但我不相信你有本事能动员孩子带离美国. 用胡罗卜加大棒的手段不算.
苦瓜 wrote:
原本只是默默欣赏Obama夫妇(从自己一分钱掰成10 瓣花的账号里拿出少许捐助也是欣赏的一部分),对美国的公民投票不抱希望,想着万一希拉力当选,自己就想办法移民他国,连孩子们的外语都开始抓了。爱娃的投票结果还真是让我身心一爽。
- posted on 01/08/2008
八年前,我的爱人说 McCain 是好人,但他没过初选。听说这次他又出来选了,虽然年纪大一些,我还是希望他能胜出,因为我的爱人的年纪也很大了。
我也觉得在所有候选人中, McCain 是个好人. 美国在过去四十年的总统里人品最别好的恐怕就是卡特和福特了. 但他们的政绩显然和他们人品不相称.
另外, 真正能谈政治的人现在都在老人院里奄奄一息了. 这个国家是他们建设起来的. 他们, 哪怕是家庭妇女, 都最有资格也最有水平谈政治. 你说的中年中产阶级的人,算岁数一定是generation X一代了. 这一代人只能谈管理企业,科学技术和音乐艺术等. 不能和他们谈政治.
阿姗 wrote:
八年前,我的爱人说 McCain 是好人,但他没过初选。听说这次他又出来选了,虽然年纪大一些,我还是希望他能胜出,因为我的爱人的年纪也很大了。
我胡说一气,但我相信美国很多选民也象我一样不懂乱来的。美国政选就是用来乱搞的。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
哈哈,好猪头,我是知道的两个人的名字的,虽然不读新闻不看报纸,还不至于如此闭塞。
谢谢了。 - posted on 01/08/2008
我理解的他们的信念是:努力帮助美国人民减轻生活中的挣扎。
说到关心美国人民, 由于美国人民目前最大的成份还是中产阶级. 所以是不是最主要关心的还是中产阶级?
其实从看全世界范围看, 除了日本, 还就是美国提供成为中产阶级的机会最大. 美国的中产阶级的比例最高, 社会结构是橄榄球型的.当然美国的中产阶级压力也最大, 最辛苦, 不小心就会落入社会底层.而且目前中产阶级受到的冲击和威胁. 这可能是你的意思.
美国中产阶级受到的冲击主要根源我觉得主要来自全球经济一体化的挑战. 这种挑战全世界各国面临, 大家都是有失有得. 最终谁最从中得益最大, 到的确是看难看出来. 有人看到正面意义, 有人看到负面意义. 民主党有几位候选人, 以爱德华兹最突出, 认为其它国家如中国获利, 美国的大资本家获利, 美国的中产阶级吃亏. 他已经公开说了, 他当总统后马上废除北美自由贸易协议. 所以工会最支持他. Obama的观点我不十分清楚. 似乎他和一些传统的民主党人一样, 焦点更集中在福利(welfare)上. 我怀疑这不能根本解决问题.
总之, 目前美国的中产阶级辛苦,压力大, 而且很多都在挣扎.这个我同意. 如何解决, 不知道. 所以, 很羡慕大陆中产阶级的稳定和轻松. 比如很羡慕qinggang上下班的路上有滋有味地欣赏一下美女呀, 街景呀.
苦瓜 wrote:
我理解的他们的信念是:努力帮助美国人民减轻生活中的挣扎。
- posted on 01/08/2008
老圣,你确信爱德华兹想成为慈禧太后?
美国思维与慈禧太后思维最格格不入,再大的困难美国人都会勇往直前而不会妥协后退。也许这正是爱德华兹落后的根本原因。奥巴马能成为政治明星,重要的他迎合了美国人的心理。
我认为,奥巴马的肤色不会成为他通往白宫的障碍。 每个人都有心怀崇高的心理。白人选择奥巴马将满足他们崇高与骄傲的心理,而少数族裔大多数会选择奥巴马,因为这是对他们自己的肯定。
st dude wrote:民主党有几位候选人, 以爱德华兹最突出, 认为其它国家如中国获利, 美国的大资本家获利, 美国的中产阶级吃亏. 他已经公开说了, 他当总统后马上废除北美自由贸易协议. 所以工会最支持他.
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
苦瓜这么说,让我对Obama要刮目相看。苦瓜难得说活,一说都是
打心底里的话。
苦瓜 wrote:我也在抓孩子的外语,带孩子出国旅行,相信是最好的。
原本只是默默欣赏Obama夫妇(从自己一分钱掰成10 瓣花的账号里拿出少许捐助也是欣赏的一部分),对美国的公民投票不抱希望,想着万一希拉力当选,自己就想办法移民他国,连孩子们的外语都开始抓了。爱娃的投票结果还真是让我身心一爽。
苦瓜之论中听,常来。
- posted on 01/08/2008
阿姗之论很有意思,很多很在理。
就比如说人名,取名字是很重要的,有时一个名字,就决定了人的前
程。故而我听说不少新移民改名字的事,改得好,
果然前景不一样,人都变了个样。
阿姗 wrote:
今年忙,我又不关心政治了。我觉得 Obama 选不上。美国人象我这样不动脑子的人很多。我不是美国人,没发言权,但我在密西根住过四年,跟中西部中年中产阶级男的白人交往过,我知道美国选举是怎么回事了。八年前,我在报纸上看了 Bush 和 Gore 的照片,就知道 Gore 肯定选不上。还听说 Gore 就想做总统,我对他的印象就差了。后来 Gore 没赢,我还挺幸灾乐祸。这次也一样。我不看新闻,只看到几个候选人的照片。Obama 看起来是黑人,又年轻,年轻的黑人肯定选不上。Hillary 是女人,女人也选不上,何况他又是 Clinton 的太太,不喜欢 Clinton 的人更不会喜欢他太太。美国人看人只看表面,根本不会动脑筋听你说什么,听也听不懂,而且不喜欢认错。自从我读了 Micheal Moore 的 Stupid White Men 以后,我也基本同意他说的,民主党和共和党候选人都差不多,选出的总统换汤不换药。当然象 Bush 这样的汤还是太糟一些的。另外,前两年看小说 Middlesex,作者说美国人喜欢总统名字不超过两个音节的:
"Dukakis." A name with more than two vowels in it running for President! The last time that had happened was Eisenhower (who looked good on a tank). Generally speaking, Americans like their presidents to have no more than two vowels. Truman. Johnson. Nixon. Clinton. If they have more than two vowels (Reagan), they can have no more than two syllables. Even better is one syllable and one vowel: Bush. Had to do that twice. Why did Mario Cuomo decide against running for President? What conclusion did he come to as he withdrew to think the matter through? Unlike Michael Dukakis, who was from academic Massachusetts, Mario Cuomo was from New York and knew what was what. Cuomo knew he'd never win. Too liberal for the moment, certainly. But also: too many vowels.
八年前,我的爱人说 McCain 是好人,但他没过初选。听说这次他又出来选了,虽然年纪大一些,我还是希望他能胜出,因为我的爱人的年纪也很大了。
我胡说一气,但我相信美国很多选民也象我一样不懂乱来的。美国政选就是用来乱搞的。 - posted on 01/08/2008
阿姗 wrote:
八年前,我在报纸上看了 Bush 和 Gore 的照片,就知道 Gore 肯定选不上。
是么?高尔得的选票更多,只是输了选举人团。
前两年看小说 Middlesex,作者说美国人喜欢总统名字不超过两个音节的:
What about Eisenhower or Kennedy? :-)
杜卡克斯输在一个问题上。记者问他,有人强奸了你的妻子、女儿,你怎么办?那老兄居然支支吾吾。
克林顿太太其实很不错。有头脑,在参议院有政绩,六十年代的理想主义者,真正关心平民。妇女们居然不支持她,我很遗憾。:-)
奥巴马玩玩嘴皮子还是不错的。如果奥巴马胜出,我只好考虑要不要去投麦肯一票了。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
个性很重要,也不是随便能改变的。其他条件相近,个性拍板。黑勒芮显然差劲不少。
毫无疑问,她是一个意志坚强,有理想,想干事的女人。会走中间路线。她失败,我也会同情她。但是选票我会给更中意的人。
July wrote:
刚从街上回来,报箱里的新报纸,克林顿输了NH.
希拉莉没有Bill.Clinton的真诚,这是他们不同的地方。可能因为出身不同。Bill.Clinton对低层老百姓有一种与生俱来的同情和真诚。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
我喜欢Obama是因为他的出身,他的生父是个伊斯兰教徒,继父也是个伊斯兰,他自己也是在伊斯兰气氛浓厚的印尼长大的。妹夫是个中国人。。。现在国际问题很多时候是宗教问题,美国的确需要在这个问题上从新思考。所以,应该给他一个机会。克林顿已经不会为美国带来更新的思维方式了。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
七月是血统论者? :)
July wrote:
我喜欢Obama是因为他的出身,他的生父是个伊斯兰教徒,继父也是个伊斯兰,他自己也是在伊斯兰气氛浓厚的印尼长大的。妹夫是个中国人。。。现在国际问题很多时候是宗教问题,美国的确需要在这个问题上从新思考。所以,应该给他一个机会。克林顿已经不会为美国带来更新的思维方式了。 - posted on 01/08/2008
布什高尔打的差不多是平手,所以你的直觉并没有份量。;)
麦坎不会是个太糟糕的总统。但是他没有领袖魅力,差一大截子。他是个温和共和党人,连本党的保守派都通不过。我想他没有希望。赢了新罕布什尔也没用。
阿姗 wrote:
今年忙,我又不关心政治了。我觉得 Obama 选不上。美国人象我这样不动脑子的人很多。我不是美国人,没发言权,但我在密西根住过四年,跟中西部中年中产阶级男的白人交往过,我知道美国选举是怎么回事了。八年前,我在报纸上看了 Bush 和 Gore 的照片,就知道 Gore 肯定选不上。还听说 Gore 就想做总统,我对他的印象就差了。后来 Gore 没赢,我还挺幸灾乐祸。这次也一样。我不看新闻,只看到几个候选人的照片。Obama 看起来是黑人,又年轻,年轻的黑人肯定选不上。Hillary 是女人,女人也选不上,何况他又是 Clinton 的太太,不喜欢 Clinton 的人更不会喜欢他太太。美国人看人只看表面,根本不会动脑筋听你说什么,听也听不懂,而且不喜欢认错。自从我读了 Micheal Moore 的 Stupid White Men 以后,我也基本同意他说的,民主党和共和党候选人都差不多,选出的总统换汤不换药。当然象 Bush 这样的汤还是太糟一些的。另外,前两年看小说 Middlesex,作者说美国人喜欢总统名字不超过两个音节的:
"Dukakis." A name with more than two vowels in it running for President! The last time that had happened was Eisenhower (who looked good on a tank). Generally speaking, Americans like their presidents to have no more than two vowels. Truman. Johnson. Nixon. Clinton. If they have more than two vowels (Reagan), they can have no more than two syllables. Even better is one syllable and one vowel: Bush. Had to do that twice. Why did Mario Cuomo decide against running for President? What conclusion did he come to as he withdrew to think the matter through? Unlike Michael Dukakis, who was from academic Massachusetts, Mario Cuomo was from New York and knew what was what. Cuomo knew he'd never win. Too liberal for the moment, certainly. But also: too many vowels.
八年前,我的爱人说 McCain 是好人,但他没过初选。听说这次他又出来选了,虽然年纪大一些,我还是希望他能胜出,因为我的爱人的年纪也很大了。
我胡说一气,但我相信美国很多选民也象我一样不懂乱来的。美国政选就是用来乱搞的。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
不是说要新鲜血液吗?:)
abc wrote:
七月是血统论者? :)
July wrote:
我喜欢Obama是因为他的出身,他的生父是个伊斯兰教徒,继父也是个伊斯兰,他自己也是在伊斯兰气氛浓厚的印尼长大的。妹夫是个中国人。。。现在国际问题很多时候是宗教问题,美国的确需要在这个问题上从新思考。所以,应该给他一个机会。克林顿已经不会为美国带来更新的思维方式了。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
那是图大教授的意思,我主要看是否年轻帅气。:)
July wrote:
不是说要新鲜血液吗?:) - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
二老板 wrote:
Obama has been calling for change. What changes is he talking about? Please can anyone enlighten me a bit?
变化?白宫易主啊。;)
现在每个候选人都声称主变。谁也不知道谁能变什么。所以,现在只能从外部感觉谁最新鲜。
谁预期很多变化,那肯定是会失望的。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
还,还有我,我是咖啡里幸存的希拉里支持者。希拉里没有魅力,胆子又小,很和我
的心意。我是太怕有魅力,胆子又大的人当领导了。:))
八十一子 wrote:
克林顿太太其实很不错。有头脑,在参议院有政绩,六十年代的理想主义者,真正关心平民。妇女们居然不支持她,我很遗憾。:-)
奥巴马玩玩嘴皮子还是不错的。如果奥巴马胜出,我只好考虑要不要去投麦肯一票了。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
美国最好的两个总统肯尼迪和克林顿都是年轻帅气的阿,所以这是没错的。我也看年轻帅气。:)
abc wrote:
那是图大教授的意思,我主要看是否年轻帅气。:)
July wrote:
不是说要新鲜血液吗?:) - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
很有道理,希特勒就是这样。 :)
Susan wrote:
还,还有我,我是咖啡里幸存的希拉里支持者。希拉里没有魅力,胆子又小,很和我
的心意。我是太怕有魅力,胆子又大的人当领导了。:))
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
真的大家都不喜欢希拉里么?是不是Obama太帅了呀?我怎么挺喜欢她的呢?我希望希拉里胜出,除了比较喜欢她,也担心Obama的生命。
这条线给人的感觉是特liberal,好像美国都这样似的。可我挺怀疑美国人是否ready for a black president,or a female president。当然今年大势有利于民主党,弄好了可以提前make history,弄不好就是共和党以逸待劳,黄雀在后。瞎说,没看新闻和竞选,只是不可靠的直觉。
其实我觉着美国好就好在中庸之道,多有作为的总统也施展不了,能把美国变法西斯国家的总统最多八年也得下去。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
玩个性, 搞艺术吧。治国不可以吧。当然选民的愚乐不可小觑。
touche wrote:
个性很重要,也不是随便能改变的。其他条件相近,个性拍板。黑勒芮显然差劲不少。
毫无疑问,她是一个意志坚强,有理想,想干事的女人。会走中间路线。她失败,我也会同情她。但是选票我会给更中意的人。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
浮生 wrote:
也担心Obama的生命。
Why ? Is America really a kind of Mafia?
If Obama can gain Jews and media, he will be accepted by hardline american for sure.
He got the Media. All he needs to do is declaring something that Jews want to listen to.
Election is a presentation show, not about delivery or how to deliver. A plain actor had the best US election - a landslide victory - let's remember this.
- posted on 01/08/2008
读仔细了:其他条件相近,个性拍板。
只要和人打交道的,都是艺术。搞政治不谙政治艺术不如趁早自杀。
比如,什么叫charm offensive?
ben ben wrote:
玩个性, 搞艺术吧。治国不可以吧。当然选民的愚乐不可小觑。
touche wrote:
个性很重要,也不是随便能改变的。其他条件相近,个性拍板。黑勒芮显然差劲不少。
毫无疑问,她是一个意志坚强,有理想,想干事的女人。会走中间路线。她失败,我也会同情她。但是选票我会给更中意的人。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
touche wrote:
读仔细了:其他条件相近,个性拍板。
只要和人打交道的,都是艺术。搞政治不谙政治艺术不如乘早自杀。
比如,什么叫charm offensive?
touche got a miss - chaming offensive is about offensive (most are truly politically-incorrect offensive), instead of the charm. Am I right in US sense? :) - posted on 01/08/2008
浮生 wrote:
这条线给人的感觉是特liberal,好像美国都这样似的。可我挺怀疑美国人是否ready for a black president,or a female president。当然今年大势有利于民主党,弄好了可以提前make history,弄不好就是共和党以逸待劳,黄雀在后。瞎说,没看新闻和竞选,只是不可靠的直觉。
Even Conservative Media Chorus Sings Obama's Praises
By Howard Kurtz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, January 8, 2008; C01
Barack Obama, now the media's odds-on favorite to win the White House, is drawing effusive praise from the chattering classes.
"You'd have to have a heart of stone not to be moved by this. . . . This is a huge moment," one commentator wrote.
An unreconstructed liberal? An African American hungering for a racial breakthrough? No, it was David Brooks, the conservative New York Times columnist, and he's got plenty of company on the right.
The media overall are being swept up by a wave of Obamamania, in which normally hard-bitten journalists watch the orator in action and come away dazzled by his gifts. A New York Times piece Saturday compared the Illinois senator to JFK and Martin Luther King in the same paragraph. A Newsweek cover story out yesterday gushed that Obama, "tall and handsome and blessed with a weighty baritone, knows how to bring along a crowd while seeming to stay slightly above it." The journalistic scrutiny usually visited on instant front-runners has been replaced by something akin to a standing ovation.
What's more, the applause extends even to pundits on the right, many of whom routinely denigrate Democratic politicians and yet are strikingly warm toward Obama. There is gratitude, to be sure, that he seems poised to knock off their longtime bete noire, Hillary Clinton -- especially if he wins today's New Hampshire primary -- but also admiration for his inclusive approach to politics and for his sheer talent.
"Who's not proud of this kid?" says Amanda Carpenter, national political reporter for the conservative site Townhall.com. "He has a story people feel good about."
In the wake of Obama's remarks about unity on the night of his Iowa caucus victory Thursday, MSNBC's Joe Scarborough, a former Republican congressman and self-described conservative, called it "one of the most remarkable speeches I've ever seen."
Bill Bennett, the conservative author, said on CNN that it was a "remarkable breakthrough" for "Barack Hussein Obama, a black man," to win in a "rural, white farming state." Rush Limbaugh added his voice on the radio, saying that Obama and Mike Huckabee, the Republican winner in Iowa, "had really uplifting, inspirational speeches."
The Weekly Standard called Obama "the classiest candidate on the Democratic side." Peggy Noonan, the former Ronald Reagan speechwriter, wrote in the Wall Street Journal that Obama had won "with a classy campaign, an unruffled manner, and an appeal on the stump that said every day, through the lines: Look at who I am and see me, the change that you desire is right here, move on with me and we will bring it forward together."
What explains these cross-party kudos?
"There's clearly a matter of heart going on here," Bennett says after his morning radio show. "He's a cool guy, a handsome guy, has a fabulous voice. A leading Democratic candidate, a black man in America, and he does not talk about race, does not play the race card. It appeals to the better angels of all our natures."
Scarborough dismisses the notion that some conservatives are talking up Obama in the belief that he would be a weak general-election opponent. "I get e-mails from Republicans, who've never voted for a Democrat before, saying they were tearing up during his Iowa speech," he says from New Hampshire. "I don't think they're being calculated and cynical. This is so damn great for America."
The story line -- "a biracial kid with an absentee father whose improbable path carried him from Hawaii to Indonesia to Chicago to Washington," as Newsweek put it -- has a movie-of-the-week quality for news outlets. The New York Post's headline screamer yesterday, over a picture of Clinton, was "PANIC." By contrast, the Boston Herald's front page blared: "BARACK STAR."
Few liberal columnists are shedding tears over the difficulties of Clinton, who has no natural cheering section in the press. And African American writers -- The Washington Post's Eugene Robinson wrote that Obama's speech gave him "goose bumps" -- are understandably excited.
Not all conservatives have hitched a ride on the Barackwagon. "There's a lot about the Obama movement I find offensive," says National Review Editor Rich Lowry, who predicted two months ago that his campaign was going "nowhere." "There's a messianism -- 'I embody change' -- that if a Christian conservative was saying those things, people would be scared."
But even as a "self-absorbed" Obama spouts "airy cliches," Lowry says, he found himself standing on tiptoe at a recent Obama speech. "It's really something magical," he says. "You're almost not an American if you don't feel stirred by what his victory would represent symbolically. Here's a guy who 50 years ago couldn't have gone in certain restrooms and motels."
Obama's conciliatory tone may also be a factor. He speaks of transcending red and blue states with a coalition that includes Republicans and independents, while Clinton, who has been hammered by the right since her husband's 1992 campaign, boasts about battling the "Republican attack machine."
Some major conservative voices have paid only fleeting attention to Obama -- Fox's Bill O'Reilly says he "ran an excellent campaign in Iowa" and is "very charismatic" -- because they are more engaged in relishing Clinton's defeat. The Standard's cover story this week, with a shot of Bill and Hillary, is "The Fall of the House of Clinton." But that means Obama has been spared, at least for now, the kind of frontal assault that might otherwise greet a surging liberal Democrat.
For some conservative commentators, Obama, 46, embodies the turning of a different kind of page, as the candidate himself has argued. In an Atlantic cover story last month, right-leaning blogger Andrew Sullivan called Obama's candidacy "a potentially transformational one. Unlike any of the other candidates, he could take America -- finally -- past the debilitating, self-perpetuating family quarrel of the baby boom generation that has long engulfed all of us."
Even Huckabee, in ABC's Republican debate Saturday, acknowledged: "We have to recognize that what Senator Obama has done is touch at the core of something Americans want. . . . He has excited a lot of voters in this country. Let's pay respect for that."
Many journalists have a personal fondness for John McCain, who holds a narrow lead in the polls for New Hampshire's Republican primary, based on his round-the-clock accessibility going back to their rides on the Straight Talk Express in 1999 and 2000. Obama has few such relationships with national reporters, who are more in the role of passive observers of a stellar performer.
Politico columnist Roger Simon, in New Hampshire last weekend, contrasted "a compelling, almost mesmerizing, speech" by Obama, who offered few specifics, with an event in which "Clinton talked about issue after issue in almost mind-numbing detail" while part of the audience filtered out.
If Obama becomes the Democratic nominee, the conservative media are not likely to urge his election by acclamation. There will be plenty of emphasis on his liberal positions and, in an echo of Clinton's criticism, his lack of national experience.
"This is a guy probably to the left of Hillary," Bennett says.
"Do I think he's right on the issues? No," Carpenter says. "But there's a perception you can work with him."
Lowry sees Obama as an elusive target: "No one's really got anything on him because he hasn't really done anything yet. He doesn't have any battle scars. You can blast Obama for what I'd consider an outrageous left-wing statement and it just doesn't get conservatives charged up the way blasting Hillary does."
- posted on 01/08/2008
You are wrong in every possible sense.
Charm offensive 魅力攻势的基础就是优越个性。想想肯尼迪,里根,克林顿。其实小布什都有一点。
令胡冲 wrote:
touche wrote:touche got a miss - chaming offensive is about offensive (most are truly politically-incorrect offensive), instead of the charm. Am I right in US sense? :)
读仔细了:其他条件相近,个性拍板。
只要和人打交道的,都是艺术。搞政治不谙政治艺术不如乘早自杀。
比如,什么叫charm offensive?
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
touche wrote:
You are wrong in every possible sense.
Charm offensive 魅力攻势的基础就是优越个性。想想肯尼迪,里根,克林顿。其实小布什都有一点。
Sigh. You should come here, live here and listen to a hard-core comedy, called Charming Offense. :) - posted on 01/08/2008
据咖啡数据库不完全统计,选民意向分布如下:
图扯、管中、老A、苦瓜、玛雅选T恤模特,令胡冲选妇联主任,xw选山大王,笨笨选超女, 99教授选瘦妹,阿姗、鹿希选649,老面选梦中情人,小曼选法国总统,苏三选模范邻居,浮生选工会主席,July选未来女婿。。。。。。
都德说得对,外行看大选(general),内行看初选(primary),比如我们红脖子州的选民,到了大选阶段,选票只投共和党,不管民主党派谁出阵,美女帅哥都无关。所以我觉得,希拉里、奥巴马赢了初选就是胜利,但是到了大选,他们肯定输,民主党选民们还是从长计议的好。
- posted on 01/08/2008
st dude wrote:
我理解的他们的信念是:努力帮助美国人民减轻生活中的挣扎。说到关心美国人民, 由于美国人民目前最大的成份还是中产阶级. 所以是不是最主要关心的还是中产阶级?
其实从看全世界范围看, 除了日本, 还就是美国提供成为中产阶级的机会最大. 美国的中产阶级的比例最高, 社会结构是橄榄球型的.当然美国的中产阶级压力也最大, 最辛苦, 不小心就会落入社会底层.而且目前中产阶级受到的冲击和威胁. 这可能是你的意思.
美国中产阶级受到的冲击主要根源我觉得主要来自全球经济一体化的挑战. 这种挑战全世界各国面临, 大家都是有失有得. 最终谁最从中得益最大, 到的确是看难看出来. 有人看到正面意义, 有人看到负面意义. 民主党有几位候选人, 以爱德华兹最突出, 认为其它国家如中国获利, 美国的大资本家获利, 美国的中产阶级吃亏. 他已经公开说了, 他当总统后马上废除北美自由贸易协议. 所以工会最支持他. Obama的观点我不十分清楚. 似乎他和一些传统的民主党人一样, 焦点更集中在福利(welfare)上. 我怀疑这不能根本解决问题.
总之, 目前美国的中产阶级辛苦,压力大, 而且很多都在挣扎.这个我同意. 如何解决, 不知道. 所以, 很羡慕大陆中产阶级的稳定和轻松. 比如很羡慕qinggang上下班的路上有滋有味地欣赏一下美女呀, 街景呀.
苦瓜 wrote:
我理解的他们的信念是:努力帮助美国人民减轻生活中的挣扎。
关于挣扎,我觉得广义地讲是伴随生命的一种状态,无时无刻不存在。从Obama的成长经历到喜拉力当众哽咽都是挣扎。当我跟家里人说喜拉力竞选过程中当众哽咽的时候,女儿(7岁)积极地回答:I know why she’s chock. She wants to be famous. She wants to be the first female president. 还是美国丫头理解美国丫头。应该承认,希拉力对自己从事的事业有着极大的热情,遇到了恨铁不成钢,恨选民不投票的挣扎。普通人在工作上、家务上、邻里关系上也都有着各种各样的挣扎,有人游刃有余,有人磕磕绊绊、结结巴巴。这个世界需要各自挣扎的人互相拉一把。
我不是很担心从中产阶级得的群体里掉到底层,我担心的是一个有着很糟糕的底层的社会里谁都过不好。大家的生活是互相牵制的。美国梦被说成是物质的积累。其实打开电视看一看,年年月月日日都在广告上待着的是没完没了的新一代清洁剂、吸尘器、切菜机。这就是真正的美国梦----改变现状,改善现状。重要的是看得见需要被改善的地方。
Obama是在美国精神的浸泡中长大的。他的母亲六十年代跟一个黑人生了一个孩子,本身就是非常理想主义地对社会的反叛。他的外公外婆,精心呵护这个黑色皮肤的孩子,尽力不让他受到肤色歧视的伤害,本身就是对平等的渴望和实践。但是这种得天独厚的环境并没有取代一个孩子成长的挣扎,他还是苦苦寻求自己的位置,在挣扎中把“治愈这个社会的疼痛”送进梦想,成了一个巨大的美国梦。
距我居住不太远的地方有一个很糟糕的城市,主要居民都是黑人。刚来美国时,有几年这个城市被列为全美杀人率最高的城市。跟这座城市相邻的是一个很昂贵、很令人向往的城市,两个城市一路之隔。空中乱飞的子弹会常常落在那座高尚城市的居民的院子里。这座城市的附近有一所著名的大学,每年都有很多大学生来到黑人社区帮助他们,特别是帮助学校里的孩子们。
最初我听到这些消息时,不很以为然。但是十多年过后,再听到这方面的消息时,得知一名那所大学的学生毕业后在这里开创了一所私立中学,这所学校的学生都来自贫困社区,学生都能受到免费的高质量的教育。好几届学生毕业了,每年都有毕业生去美国最好的几所大学读书。
孩子的音乐老师说他有一个学生得到了这所学校的奖学金,孩子的合气道老师说他想到那座城市去提供奖学金让那里的孩子也能来学习合气道,让我找音乐老师跟那所学校联系。每个人都有一个美国梦,在自己力所能及的范围里寻求改善。
我的挣扎,在煽情和真情之间徘徊 ;)
- posted on 01/08/2008
老瓦 wrote:
据咖啡数据库不完全统计,图扯、管中、老A、苦瓜、玛雅选T恤模特,令胡冲选妇联主任,xw选山大王,笨笨选超女, 99教授选瘦妹,阿姗、鹿希选649,老面选梦中情人,小曼选法国总统,苏三选模范邻居,浮生选工会主席,July选未来女婿。。。。。。
In touche's words, you got everybody's preferences wrong in every sense. :)
都德说得对,外行看大选(general),内行看初选(primary),比如我们红脖子州的选民,到了大选阶段,选票只投共和党,不管民主党派谁出阵,美女帅哥都无关。所以我觉得,希拉里、奥巴马赢了初选就是胜利,但是到了大选,他们肯定输,民主党选民们还是从长计议的好。
Hard to see. Unless there is a disaster for Obama, that for example, he got the funding of some muslim extremist group without his own knowledge, or even wrose from Chinese goverment. :)
BTW, even I know 红脖子州 is really nothing (sorry say that). Don't forget CA, MA and NY - no hope for republican and they are true America. :))
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/08/2008
苦瓜 wrote:
我的挣扎,在煽情和真情之间徘徊 ;)
看来我的选票要改投, 苦瓜for president……..咖啡党(前柿油党)一届一中委员会宣。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
令胡冲 wrote:
BTW, even I know 红脖子州 is really nothing (sorry say that). Don't forget CA, MA and NY - no hope for republican and they are true America. :))
哎,令胡,红脖子可不是一个州呀。Obama真要胜出,且大选有望,用不着Mafia,美国的hate crime远没有绝迹。我大概太悲观了。
2004 election
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
US was red since 2004 it's on the war. It's slightly different now unless Iranian attacked US navy :) - posted on 01/08/2008
guanzhong wrote:
二老板 wrote:end the current stupid foreign policy, mend the relationship with middle east countries, the country will be much safer then.
Obama has been calling for change. What changes is he talking about? Please can anyone enlighten me a bit?
I will be happy to see a black president in white house.
Did he say those? That sounds good.
What about the economy, and those toys?
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
还是浮生手脚快。。。莫非令胡调查了咖啡就我一人身陷红脖子州? NY, LA, Chicago, DC的大伙儿都在蓝营,我羡慕你们在自由的空气里呼吸。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
Here is a closer look: purple states.
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
一些紫红脖子的人也说他们自己是true America。
实际上紫红脖子和深蓝色的人是一伙的。
令胡冲 wrote:
BTW, even I know 红脖子州 is really nothing (sorry say that). Don't forget CA, MA and NY - no hope for republican and they are true America. :))
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
touche wrote:
二老板 wrote:变化?白宫易主啊。;)
Obama has been calling for change. What changes is he talking about? Please can anyone enlighten me a bit?
现在每个候选人都声称主变。谁也不知道谁能变什么。所以,现在只能从外部感觉谁最新鲜。
谁预期很多变化,那肯定是会失望的。
So, that's a cancel out. I actually don't buy the word "change" anymore. I only want to see the difference among them. - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
老瓦 wrote:
还是浮生手脚快。。。莫非令胡调查了咖啡就我一人身陷红脖子州? NY, LA, Chicago, DC的大伙儿都在蓝营,我羡慕你们在自由的空气里呼吸。
Don't feel too bad. I am with you.
Actually we are turning purple.
I'd like to see independence running the table in near future. - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
二老板 wrote:
Actually we are turning purple.
Might it be a color-blindness due to the aging? :) - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
浮生 wrote:
哎,令胡,红脖子可不是一个州呀。Obama真要胜出,且大选有望,用不着Mafia,美国的hate crime远没有绝迹。我大概太悲观了。
很多人有此担心,所以说当心两颗子弹。再次以和浮生MM有同感为荣一下哈。hate crime 的厉害之处就是冷不防。但革命不是请客吃饭,不是苗家楼腐败,然后古典买单。革命就会有流血牺牲么。关键还不在这里,关键是美国人求变的心情有没有急迫到允许一个黑人当他们的总裁。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
业余观察者 wrote:
关键是美国人求变的心情有没有急迫到允许一个黑人当他们的总裁。
Hard to say. The wind is blowing, it might last just long enough for this election.
Hardcore people have nothing to fear - they still can kill him after he moves into Whitehouse, if the vice president is white. We are talking about "24", aren't we? :) - posted on 01/08/2008
令胡冲 wrote:
二老板 wrote:Might it be a color-blindness due to the aging? :)
Actually we are turning purple.
No. Just that more and more people are turning independent, and the ratio of elephants and asses are reaching equality. Purple is the color code they are using, although scientifically it does not make sense. 青或绿 might be the right color code.
Any scientific background for the corelation between color blindness and aging? - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
不必太悲观。看施瓦茨内格凭两垛肌肉当了加州州长。当时有几人见好?现在他比谁差?
总统可好当了。凡事兼听各方专家。自己做决断。做不了的,扔硬币。只要不在电视上扔就行了。 - posted on 01/08/2008
touche wrote:
不必太悲观。看施瓦茨内格凭两垛肌肉当了加州州长。当时有几人见好?现在他比谁差?
总统可好当了。凡事兼听各方专家。自己做决断。做不了的,扔硬币。只要不在电视上扔就行了。
That's right. Presidency is about talking the values and vision. His government is to deliver. Until he got the presidency, he doesn't have the government. So don;t talk about the issues, details and the way to deliver - they are nonsense anyway - who the hell can know what kind of team you will get.
Bush got the wrong team - that's why he has been struggling to deliver - not because himself is stupid or smart - his own intelligence doesn;t matter too much. Most of them are his friends or his father's friends for many years - a team made of friends are set to fail. - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
没有关注大选,但是,我认为,如果民主党派出奥巴马或者克林顿,共和党这次还会赢。选举权是先给了男黑人,然后才是女人。女人想当总统,比男黑人还难。长相在网络媒体时代尤其重要,04年我一看克里那刀条脸,就知道他不是布什的对手。 - posted on 01/08/2008
奥巴马领先Iowa说明美国人很进步。希拉里虽然Charm不足,实力还是不错。只可惜当总统,特别是女总统,只有实力是远远不够的。但是能够踏上这块历史舞台,知难而上(It is interesting to see there are just too much despite in the clinton-haters floating around this campaign.),同为女人,我当然是顶的,希望她坚持下去。奥巴马无疑是个拥有智慧的人,领先Iowa和New Hampshire让许多摇摆的人兴奋。只是一个如此资浅的议员要是当选了,破的记录这不止一项了。暂不谈美国人是否有这种心理主动拥抱这种改变,他如何能征得资深内阁辅助他也是巨大挑战。
有一点很希望有研究的人开解:美国这麽讲究系统的国家,怎么会让Iowa和New Hampshire这两个占美国比例很小的地方在大选中占了这么重要的地位呢?看起来似乎不很合理。如果他们只占先机,选举人或支持选举人的财团为什么愿意在第一、二个州初选后便将钱投入呢?是系统牵制市场,还是市场牵制系统?
大选时期是了解美国系统的大好时候,也有最精彩的的真人秀。什么通天入地或犄角疙瘩的,大事屁事都会都出来嚼一嚼,谈一谈,晒一晒,就好象全体美国人民来一次总复习、大家庭会议、忆苦思甜、百花齐放、发动群众斗群众……
"We the People" get this party together again in the name of "for the State" -- the Constitution -- in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity.
老瓦 wrote:
据咖啡数据库不完全统计,选民意向分布如下:
图扯、管中、老A、苦瓜、玛雅选T恤模特,令胡冲选妇联主任,xw选山大王,笨笨选超女, 99教授选瘦妹,阿姗、鹿希选649,老面选梦中情人,小曼选法国总统,苏三选模范邻居,浮生选工会主席,July选未来女婿。。。。。。
都德说得对,外行看大选(general),内行看初选(primary),比如我们红脖子州的选民,到了大选阶段,选票只投共和党,不管民主党派谁出阵,美女帅哥都无关。所以我觉得,希拉里、奥巴马赢了初选就是胜利,但是到了大选,他们肯定输,民主党选民们还是从长计议的好。
- posted on 01/08/2008
rzp wrote:
有一点很希望有研究的人开解:美国这麽讲究系统的国家,怎么会让Iowa和New Hampshire这两个占美国比例很小的地方在大选中占了这么重要的地位呢?看起来似乎不很合理。如果他们只占先机,选举人或支持选举人的财团为什么愿意在第一、二个州初选后便将钱投入呢?是系统牵制市场,还是市场牵制系统?
这还用研究啊。我以为这是美国人的骄傲和常识呢。
有小洲开始,加一点随机扰动,由于系统稳定而且robust,最后选出来的家伙其实也都大同小异。但至少不是长相说话经历背景都完全相同的人。
当然全国同一天直选也没有什么不好的。所以英国政府就很稳定现实,但没有什么激情,没劲。在英国我从来不投票的。:) - posted on 01/08/2008
rzp wrote:
有一点很希望有研究的人开解:美国这麽讲究系统的国家,怎么会让Iowa和New Hampshire这两个占美国比例很小的地方在大选中占了这么重要的地位呢?看起来似乎不很合理。
谈不上研究。Iowa 和 NH, 一个西部农业州,一个纽英伦工业州(NH的居民还往往说自己是作家. :-) ),政治观念一红一蓝,还是很有代表性的。
至于这两个州举行初选的时间,那是历史上形成的,而且从前不是那么重要。好像是从卡特以后人们才发现总统选举获胜者很多也在NH获胜(但不一定)。有了这样的迷信后,很多洲都在最近把初选时间改为年初了,只是很难再摆到这两个州之前。 - posted on 01/08/2008
Obama是我的隔两条街的邻居,我来做证一下:他家从好几个月前起,就有保安24小时看守。
业余观察者 wrote:
浮生 wrote:很多人有此担心,所以说当心两颗子弹。再次以和浮生MM有同感为荣一下哈。hate crime 的厉害之处就是冷不防。但革命不是请客吃饭,不是苗家楼腐败,然后古典买单。革命就会有流血牺牲么。关键还不在这里,关键是美国人求变的心情有没有急迫到允许一个黑人当他们的总裁。
哎,令胡,红脖子可不是一个州呀。Obama真要胜出,且大选有望,用不着Mafia,美国的hate crime远没有绝迹。我大概太悲观了。 - posted on 01/08/2008
老圣,我说的中年中产阶级的人,岁数是50左右。咱们GenX的,现在最多算是青年。
st dude wrote:
另外, 真正能谈政治的人现在都在老人院里奄奄一息了. 这个国家是他们建设起来的. 他们, 哪怕是家庭妇女, 都最有资格也最有水平谈政治. 你说的中年中产阶级的人,算岁数一定是generation X一代了. 这一代人只能谈管理企业,科学技术和音乐艺术等. 不能和他们谈政治.
八十一子 wrote:
阿姗 wrote:是么?高尔得的选票更多,只是输了选举人团。
八年前,我在报纸上看了 Bush 和 Gore 的照片,就知道 Gore 肯定选不上。
Gore 人又有学问,选票又多,最后还是没赢,不更说明美国人选举的乱搞问题了吗?我的直觉还是对的。
比如说 Obama 吧,我公公每次在电视上看到他,都要对他大肆讽刺和嘲笑,根本不会去听他的政见。很多美国白人一看到黑人、女人,就不愿意选他们做领导。就是 guanzhong 说的,美国人太保守。
前两年看小说 Middlesex,作者说美国人喜欢总统名字不超过两个音节的:What about Eisenhower or Kennedy? :-)
小说作者说了,Eisenhower 在坦克上样子好帅。另外,Kennedy 有只两个元音字母(虽然有三个音节)。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/08/2008
July wrote:
Obama是我的隔两条街的邻居,我来做证一下:他家从好几个月前起,就有保安24小时看守。
他有时间下班以后,回家看看么? - posted on 01/08/2008
January 8, 2008
Bill Clinton targets media coverage of Obama
Posted: 01:40 PM ET
Watch Bill Clinton's comments Monday night.
(CNN) – On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, former President Bill Clinton criticized the media for not pressing Barack Obama more fully on Iraq, and accused the Illinois senator of shifting his position to reflect changing attitudes on the war.
"It is wrong that Senator Obama got to go through 15 debates trumpeting his superior judgment and how he had been against the war in every year, enumerating the years, and never got asked one time, not once, 'Well, how could you say that when you said in 2004 you didn't know how you would have voted on the resolution? You said in 2004 there was no difference between you and George Bush on the war," Clinton said at a campaign stop in Hanover, New Hampshire.
"And you took that speech you're now running on off your Web site in 2004. And there's no difference in your voting record and Hillary's ever since."
He added, "Give me a break. This whole thing is the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen."
Clinton's wife, New York Sen. Hillary Clinton, is battling Obama for the Democratic presidential nomination.
The former president briefly acknowledged that his wife's senior campaign advisor, Mark Penn, was mistaken to claim that Obama had no bounce out of Iowa after winning the state's caucuses because the poll numbers on the day after were relatively unchanged.
Then he abruptly changed the subject — suggesting that Obama's campaign had employed underhanded tactics.
"What did you think about the Obama thing calling Hillary the senator from Punjab? Did you like that? Or what about the Obama handout that was covered up, the press never reported on, implying that I was a crook. Scouring me — scathing criticism over my financial reports. Ken Starr spent $70 million and indicted innocent people to find out that I wouldn't take a nickel to see the cow jump over the moon.
"So you can take a shot at Mark Penn if you want. It wasn't his best day. He was hurt. He felt badly we didn't do better in Iowa," said Clinton. "But the idea that one of these campaigns is positive and the other is negative when I know the reverse is true — and I have seen it and I have been blistered by it for months — is a little tough to take. Just because of the sanitizing coverage that's in the media doesn't mean the facts aren't out there."
He added, lightheartedly, "Otherwise, I do not have any strong feelings about that subject."
The former president made the remarks as polls showed his wife trailing Obama in this important first-in-the-nation primary state.
– CNN Associate Political Editor Rebecca Sinderbrand
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/09/2008
Clinton and Obama are pretty much still neck in neck in New Hampshire. Nationwide, momentum is clearly on Obama's side.
McCain won New Hampshire in the last republican primary as well but his steam ran out right there. - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/09/2008
touche wrote:
Yes America needs fresh blood!!!
对,美国需要些阴柔之气。一黑一雌,正合此用。 - posted on 01/09/2008
老圣,你确信爱德华兹想成为慈禧太后?
你还记得我在某条线上曾经说过, 美国不仅有华尔街的资本主义吗? 美国的民粹主义就是其中的另一种思想.在南方,不管是共和党还是民主党, 不管是黑人还是白人, 这种思想非常根深蒂固. 本人有限的美国经历碰巧对北方的华尔街资本主义不了解, 而非常熟悉爱德华兹这种典型的南方政治家的思想. 其实几乎所有从南方产生的政治? 包括克林顿和和石油大资本有关的布什,骨子里都有民粹思想. 早些年的约翰逊,卡特和今天的爱德华兹更典型而已. 民粹主义的核心理念就是反对精英, 反对少数特权阶层. 在经济上, 就是反对经济上的"精英"-大资本家和巨型企业对普通人的控制. 这可能和资本主义精神有矛盾, 但是和美国最根本的精神没有矛盾. 这就是, 人的权利不能被富人,大资本等侵犯.比如, 我一生的志向是当八级钳工当木匠,你把工作机会送给了墨西哥, 等于侵犯了我的求生权利. 这和一个人想一辈子做算盘先生不一样. 算盘被计算机取代是自然淘汰. 如果我只会算盘, 不会计算机, 我倒霉我认了. 而我做机械制造, 在美国的需求市场本来没有被淘汰, 家家户户都需要. 只是大资本家人为地把工作送到国外了. 他发财了, 我一生给毁了. 特别是, 如果我爱我的家乡, 整个工厂从家乡搬走了. 等于逼我背井离乡, 侵犯我的生存权.
爱德华兹的父亲一辈子在mill做工, 他自己也做过. 他成长的环境也是这样的环境. 以前有很多老电影都这方面的题材. 我现在一时能想起来的就是电影"猎鹿人" (deer hunter). 前半部分描写那几个矿工参军去越南服役前的那部分生活就是典型的传统工业小镇生活. 我想今天那个小镇一定成为了废弃的鬼城. 爱德华兹的职业就是起诉大财团, 大企业, 大资本家. 四年前的竞选他的突然崛起, 居于第二, 是有相当广泛的百姓基础的. 当时, 他对待北美自由贸易协议的态度是,影响就业的部分一定要修改. 四年后的现在, 他的态度更强烈.对华尔街, 他仍说要修改.但是, 对工会的讲话, 他说不修改就废除.
cafe里大部分来客可能都是在大地方,高科技的地方, 抄股票的地方. 所以一般谈的都是美国思想的一面. 爱德华兹代表的是美国的另一面. 当然不是主要方面. 否则他早就当选了.
abc wrote:
老圣,你确信爱德华兹想成为慈禧太后?
美国思维与慈禧太后思维最格格不入,再大的困难美国人都会勇往直前而不会妥协后退。也许这正是爱德华兹落后的根本原因。奥巴马能成为政治明星,重要的他迎合了美国人的心理。 - posted on 01/09/2008
我的挣扎,在煽情和真情之间徘徊 ;)
说得好, 苦瓜. 我没有读过奥巴马的个人传记或其他生平细节. 但是作为少数族裔和移民, 我当然听得懂你所说的. 作为曾经是一个穷学生, 我也理解你所指的下层的挣扎. 我同意你说的美国梦, 不应该狭隘地理解成为物质的追求. 我理解的美国梦首先应该是一种个人奋斗精神. 是一种精神, 个人的, 奋斗的. 奋斗的内容因人而异. 也许你从奥巴马的个人经历中看到了这种精神, 从那些大学生办学的故事感受到了这种精神, 所以你想通过你的政治权利表达出来, 比如在这此总统选举中, 你支持奥巴马.
你支持他, 我支持你. I mean支持你的”支持”. 我看总统候选人的角度是从另一方面. 我不知道我的角度和你是不是一回事.
你可能知道一个短暂的几乎是二十年前的关于美国总统选举的流行说法, 现在已经不这么说了. 这就是民主党象个母亲, 共和党象个父亲. 一个更关心家务,照顾孩子和吃穿(内政问题); 另一个更关心家里的挣钱问题(经济发展), 对外打交道(外交)和保护全家不受他人欺负(国防). 各个母亲关心内政的想法和做法不同, 各个父亲挣钱的方法和保家卫国的想法也不同. 针对一个家庭(国家),它的情况和主要矛盾总是在变的. 父亲和母亲谁当主角的地位也随之变化. 比如, 目前家里缺钱, 挣钱是家里最大的问题, 发展经济最重要的.家里的头等大事就围绕着如何让父亲多赚钱. 又比如,家里孩子的教育出现问题, 或者孩子病了, 家里的头等大事就是围绕孩子. 这时候母亲的作用就更大一些. 我举这个例子是想说, 一个国家和一个家庭一样, 有很多问题和困难. 有缺钱, 又有孩子问题, 又有和邻居的矛盾问题….等等. 我看待总统选举这样的国家政治事情, 总是把自己所认为的国家最重要的事情和问题列出来, 然后去看谁最适合, 是更需要父亲呢还是更需要母亲? 如果需要父亲, 需要什么样的父亲? 如果需要母亲, 需要什么样的母亲? 当然, 今天的这个"我把党来比父母亲"的概念已经不存在了. 两党中都有擅长父亲的候选人, 也有擅长母亲的候选人. 关键是国家目前的问题是最需要什么样的人来解决. 这是我看待总统选举的一种角度. 所以谁对国家问题看得准, 急迫的, 主要的, 次要的,短期的, 长期的…., 而且有能力解决问题, 我想他就合适. 当然一切都是比较而言.
苦瓜 wrote:
我的挣扎,在煽情和真情之间徘徊 ;)
- posted on 01/09/2008
New Hampshire州有法律,她永远是美国总统初选选举的第一个州. 好象不违背联邦宪法, 因为初选是地方的事情. Iowa是caucus,严格说只是选举过程的第一步,它的真正结束日期在NH初选之后. 所以当它移动到New Hampshire州的初选日期之前, New Hampshire没有和它争. 正式的说, New Hampshire是初选第一州.
从各方面说, New Hampshire州作为美国第一选举州当之无愧.
该州博物馆都有详细记载.
该州人口虽然还有没有一个普通大城市的人口多, 她的州议会议员人数仅次于英国国会和美国国会, 是所有讲英语国家的第三大议会, 人数好象是400(不准,你可以去查). 几乎每一个neiborghhood 都有州议员. 可见,人们关心政治的热情和老百姓政治素质很高. 虽然人们的政治热情极高, 但是观点温和. 对政治的关心更多在广泛的问题和议题(issue)上, 而不是在狭隘的利益(interest)上.
Iowa州的caucus是媒体捧出的event. caucus 的方式本身也太古老,间接民主. New Hampshire的初选更直接表达民意, 结果意义更大.
从小州开始选也合理. 首先对金钱赞助少的总统候选人有好处.
如果在加州, 德州这样的大地方先开始. 大部分资金少的候选人可能根本没有财政能力承担. 你在一个拥有十几个城镇的州的竞选开销, 包括竞选总部/分部办公室的租用, 旅馆,租车的费用, 和一个面积很大, 几十个甚至上百个城镇的大州费用相差太大了. 很可能这个州一半的地方还没有被你cover呢, 你的钱已经花光了. 和做生意的道理一样, 先开个小杂货店. 成功了, 赚了钱再扩大成超级市场. 你越竞选成功越赚钱. 这样做照顾了资金少的竞选人, 合理.
make sense. 其次, 滚雪球从小往大滚更公平. 也就是, 以小影响大好.
比以大影响小好相对公平.
New Hampshire竞选第一州, 当之无愧, 也十分合理.
rzp wrote:
有一点很希望有研究的人开解:美国这麽讲究系统的国家,怎么会让Iowa和New Hampshire这两个占美国比例很小的地方在大选中占了这么重要的地位呢?看起来似乎不很合理。如果他们只占先机,选举人或支持选举人的财团为什么愿意在第一、二个州初选后便将钱投入呢?是系统牵制市场,还是市场牵制系统? - posted on 01/09/2008
老圣,你的内容很好,很受启发。
自由贸易协定是美国要求签订的。 打开其它国家的市场一直是西方列强的梦想。 在野蛮的时代,西方列强用洋枪洋炮打开其它国家的市场。冷战结束后,一股独大的美国,以武力和颠覆政权相威胁,迫使世界各国签订不平等的“自由”贸易协定,即 WTO. 这里自由之所以加引号,因为劳动力市场并没有自由开放。 不开放劳动力市场显然是为了保护美国,否则中国电子专业的大学毕业生都可以去硅谷打工赚美刀了,我老A也可以去华尔街给江平老大提提包什么的。
现在,以爱德华兹为代表的南方手工业者,想废除“自由”贸易协定,恕我直言,他们的IQ只有慈禧太后的水平。 你想啊,废除北美“自由”贸易协定后要不要废除同中国的“自由”贸易协定,不废除后者废除前者是没有任何意义的。如果美国废除几乎所有的“自由”贸易协定,中国必然只买空客而不买波音,波音公司生产的飞机只能卸掉翅膀在高速公路上当客车跑了。这是一个多么怪异的事情。
解决南方手工业者困境的根本出路在于教育与培训,培训他们成为医生律师会计师财务规划师等,成为第三次浪潮知识经济的弄潮儿。我觉得,爱德华兹应该三顾茅庐请我们的老哇和风子同学做竞选伙伴,成功后让老哇当教育部长扩招医生律师会计等专业,让风子任全国律师培训总监。
有人说竞选是民主,有人说竞选是艺术,我却说竞选是科学。 不讲科学,竞选是不会成功的,爱德华兹就是最好的例子。
st dude wrote: - posted on 01/09/2008
昨天要是Obama胜出,我可能还不会去看他的演讲,支持了他这么久,还真没认真听过他的演讲,只是听说他很能说。昨天晚上因为他输了,特意看了一下,感觉就像又看到了Joe Montana打球的镜头,久违了,巨星风采!
回头去他的网站看选民的评论,真是有很多年轻人。我还以为都是我这种只能雪中送炭的老翁在支持他,原来祖国的花朵也都在场。整个讨论青春亮丽,弄得我都不好意思发言。感觉这个选举的过程太有意思了,有一种盛大的baby shower party的感觉。
老圣,谢谢你码字,读得很有收获。消化一下再回头来请教。
- posted on 01/09/2008
老A,恕我直言,你还是不懂美国政客,你以为他们真的不懂中国玩具禁不了,北美贸易禁不了?他们非常懂得对什么样的听众说什么样的话。
abc wrote:
老圣,你的内容很好,很受启发。
自由贸易协定是美国要求签订的。 打开其它国家的市场一直是西方列强的梦想。 在野蛮的时代,西方列强用洋枪洋炮打开其它国家的市场。冷战结束后,一股独大的美国,以武力和颠覆政权相威胁,迫使世界各国签订不平等的“自由”贸易协定,即 WTO. 这里自由之所以加引号,因为劳动力市场并没有自由开放。 不开放劳动力市场显然是为了保护美国,否则中国电子专业的大学毕业生都可以去硅谷打工赚美刀了,我老A也可以去华尔街给江平老大提提包什么的。
现在,以爱德华兹为代表的南方手工业者,想废除“自由”贸易协定,恕我直言,他们的IQ只有慈禧太后的水平。 你想啊,废除北美“自由”贸易协定后要不要废除同中国的“自由”贸易协定,不废除后者废除前者是没有任何意义的。如果美国废除几乎所有的“自由”贸易协定,中国必然只买空客而不买波音,波音公司生产的飞机只能卸掉翅膀在高速公路上当客车跑了。这是一个多么怪异的事情。
解决南方手工业者困境的根本出路在于教育与培训,培训他们成为医生律师会计师财务规划师等,成为第三次浪潮知识经济的弄潮儿。我觉得,爱德华兹应该三顾茅庐请我们的老哇和风子同学做竞选伙伴,成功后让老哇当教育部长扩招医生律师会计等专业,让风子任全国律师培训总监。
有人说竞选是民主,有人说竞选是艺术,我却说竞选是科学。 不讲科学,竞选是不会成功的,爱德华兹就是最好的例子。
st dude wrote: - posted on 01/09/2008
竞选是一种社会运作的方式,当机器做好了之后,挑选看管机器的人的过程就是竞选。跟选超女和真人秀有些类似。
前年家里来了一个房客,年轻得像一个高中生,据说正在上法学院,被州长竞选人选中当竞选演说的执笔人。他所代表的竞选人是民主党的候选人,我们家没有民主党。谈完价钱等事宜之后,我家家长告诉男孩儿:我是共和党的支持者,你住在这儿可要小心,到了竞选的关键时候,我可能会给你找麻烦。男孩儿灿烂地一笑:我爸爸是也共和党,但他是92年克林顿参选总统时北加州竞选总部的负责人。啊哈,党派之争早就不是什么障碍了。接下来,好奇地问男孩儿是如何被选来做笔杆子的,男孩儿说:叔叔看着我长大的,就被选上了。原来是大院儿里长大的。
那是我们第一次出租房子,男孩儿帮我们修订租房协议,很认真,还提了不少建议,勾勾画画的。我问他,你还真每个字都读啊?男孩儿说:否则我的老师会失望的。
男孩儿的办公室里有一大群跟他年龄、经历相仿的大孩子,他们的竞选旗号是环保、绿色。孩子们自身也有一种环保、绿色环境里长大的新鲜、清醇感。当时就觉得这也太缥缈了,连我这亲绿党者也不以为他们能成事儿。可是资金、机会和挑战都不打盹儿地涌向这些孩子。男孩儿签和约的时候提出两种方案,若是初选得胜,就一直租到大选,否则就半道搬走。
后来他半道搬走了。临走前问了一下选情,好像对那孩子也没什么负面影响,大概只是经历了一次小小的锻炼。
- posted on 01/10/2008
虽然大家都知道政治家的话不可信,但也不能不靠谱,话不靠谱就会被认为是不聪明。 民众可以原谅政治家的虚伪,但不会原谅政治家的不聪明。
这样的公开选举,对政治家确实是一项极大的挑战,既要讲科学又不能太老实,既要耍滑头又不能不诚实。
所以,我最终还是同意小赵主编,选举政治是一门综合艺术。:)
LM wrote:
老A,恕我直言,你还是不懂美国政客,你以为他们真的不懂中国玩具禁不了,北美贸易禁不了?他们非常懂得对什么样的听众说什么样的话。 - Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 01/10/2008
Copy myself from the other line:
昨晚看电视上竞选时刚好随手翻书,忽然看到曹聚仁引用于右任的一首诗,让我大笑。诸位看竞选容易上火,此诗可为良药。
“风虎云龙亦偶然,欺人青史话连篇;
中原代有英雄出,各苦生民数十年。”
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/10/2008
我胡说一气,但我相信美国很多选民也象我一样不懂乱来的。美国政选就是用来乱搞的。
这话说得经典。但得补一句,不管怎么乱搞,还是搞不乱的。
其实我觉得选谁都不要紧,要紧的是没有谁可以赖在那个位置上。还有就是提供给全民一个愚乐的机会。跟卖彩票似的,谁也不知道谁会中奖。
我还是相信那句话,选政不是最好的选择,而是最不坏的选择。 - Re: Go! Obama!posted on 01/10/2008
非常赞同古典和朱老师。
所以,不管是美国选民还是非美国选民,大家以愚乐的心态参与是最好的,不会着急上火,有利身心健康。:)
当然,美国大选也是一门生动的社会学课程,认真学习收获还是很大的。
守望古典 wrote:
我胡说一气,但我相信美国很多选民也象我一样不懂乱来的。美国政选就是用来乱搞的。这话说得经典。但得补一句,不管怎么乱搞,还是搞不乱的。
- posted on 01/14/2008
老A, 关于自由贸易和很深远贸易历史我们先不说. 和选举没有直接联系.
打贸易战和贸易协定是两回事. 北美自由贸易协定是各方自愿参加的事情. 只是个协定, 想参加想推出随便. 中美州的几个国家一直也想加入这个协定,英国也曾经考虑过加入. 北美北美自由贸易协定当初有劳动力的一条,只是定为逐步的. 后来的911延缓了这一发展. 波音飞机也没有你说的那么简单. 我对最新的787很了解, 其中两个部分都是中国生产. 为什么日本的航空公司总是波音的最大顾客, 因为波音飞机的相当多部件都是日本公司生产.
民粹思想不是低IQ. 孙中山有很严重的民粹思想. 大部分国人都有. 我也有相当严重的民粹思想,可能和我受国人和美国南方人双重思想影响有关.
我只想说, 爱德华兹代表的不是一小部分人的思想. 比他地位更大的人大有人在. 当年, 亿万富翁Ross Perot就是以这种思想建立了第三党,并参加总统竞选. Perot和高尔关于是否参加北美自由贸易协定曾有经典的辩论. 后来每次总统竞选都有类似思想的人参加竞选. 这一次不仅仅是民主党的爱德华兹,还有一个媒体不大报道, 但是民间支持相当广泛的保罗医生. 此人在去年十二月份一个月收到捐款1500万. 要知道这是家家需要花现钱的节假日时间. 如果你有卫星天线受到CNN. CNN里有一个(唯一一个)哈佛毕业的鲁道卜(Lou Dobbs). 他的节目天天都是这些内容和这些思想. 我不看, 但是我知道.
解决南方手工业者困境的根本出路在于教育与培训,培训他们成为医生律师会计师财务规划师等,成为第三次浪潮知识经济的弄潮儿。
我明白你的观点, 也理解你的观点. 美国是已经转为第三产业为主的国家了. 但是, 事情复杂在:
1.一个国家要有一定的蓝领阶层. 蓝领的工人阶级有很多好的精神和文化. 这不是钱所能衡量的. 一个国家如果都是investors, contractors, salesman...等白领, 这个国家的文化和精神肯定俗不可耐和腐朽.
2 美国有很多人不愿意做第三产业,就愿意用自己的双手和体力劳动. 我知道你可能不能理解. 这和有些人就愿意当农民一样. 说实话, 我就愿意当农民, 当然是开着拖拉机的现代化农民,不是我们祖辈的用屎用尿种庄稼的那种农民. 拥有10亩地. 2亩地做池塘养鱼钓鱼, 3亩地用来种菜. 剩下5亩地用来养牛养马. 再盖四间大瓦房.
abc wrote:
有人说竞选是民主,有人说竞选是艺术,我却说竞选是科学。 不讲科学,竞选是不会成功的,爱德华兹就是最好的例子。 - posted on 01/14/2008
老圣,很高兴与你对辩。:)
“民粹思想不是低IQ”。 我最喜欢的小说之一就是高阳的《慈禧全传》。我不得不说,无论是IQ还是EQ,慈禧太后都很高。
依我的理解,民粹思想就是慈禧思想,或准确地说,慈禧思想就是民粹思想的代表。
我们不能因为孙中山是国父就不能在某些思想上把他与慈禧太后划等号。 老毛还农民加民粹呢,在某些方面我们还可以说老毛是农民慈禧太后。
国人有比较严重的民粹思想,这个我非常赞同。 这就进一步证明我党与时俱进,高举三个代表的伟大旗帜多么英明正确。
“ 一个国家如果都是investors, contractors, salesman...等白领, 这个国家的文化和精神肯定俗不可耐和腐朽. ”
这种想法也是你民粹思想的延伸。依我对商业的理解,商人是最有创造力的一群人,不仅创造了那个时代的物质文明,更创造了那个时代的精神文明。 从欧洲大陆来美洲的那些先驱们,本质上都是一群商人。 美国国父们,华盛顿,富兰克林或其他人,也都是典型的商人。 美国宪法,本质上是保护商人利益和商业秩序。历史上中国的积穷积弱,根本原因在于统治者的民粹思想太严重。 小平引进商业思想后,中国发生了多么伟大的变化啊。
你可能想过苏格拉底的哲学高度,但你有没有想过美国宪法所昭示的哲学与文化的深度,高度,厚度,精度和醇度的呢?要知道,美国宪法首先是商业文明,民主与人权只不过是实现商业文明的手段与理由。我们可不能把目的与手段本末到置。
对商人思想的偏见,完全是因为话语权的问题。 掌握思想文化阵地的是对成功商人有嫉妒心理的所谓文化人。
我敢打赌,在商业第一线实干的商人,他们对人生的理解,比一般文化人对人生的理解要丰富得多,透彻得多。 千万别狭隘地理解商人的思维里只有钱。
你所向往的农民生活,在我看来不过是一厢情愿的小资产阶级情调。 你不可能不知道美国的农产品便宜得一塌糊涂,你当农民直接的受害者就是圣太和小圣。浪漫的圣太将因为你钱不多而想都不敢想去巴黎左岸喝咖啡,聪明的小圣将因为你经济条件不够不得不放弃哈佛改上加州柏克莱。
- posted on 01/27/2008
Saturday, Jan. 26, 2008
Obama's Rout Rejiggers the Race
By Karen Tumulty
There was only way to describe Barack Obama's victory over Hillary Clinton and John Edwards in South Carolina: It was a rout. "After four great contests in every corner of this country, we have the most votes, the most delegates, and the most diverse coalition of Americans that we've seen in a long, long time," Obama declared at his victory celebration in Columbia. "There are young and old; rich and poor. They are black and white; Latino and Asian and Native American. They are Democrats from Des Moines and Independents from Concord, and yes, some Republicans from rural Nevada and we've got young people from all across this country who've never had a reason to participate until now."
Obama's impressive win meant all the more given the nature of politics in South Carolina, a state whose history is fraught with race and class. Some observers wondered if the state's voters were becoming more racially polarized in the final days before the primary. That speculation was fueled by one late McClatchy/MSNBC survey that suggested Obama could expect to receive no more than 10% of the white vote, half of what the same poll had shown only a week before. But Obama instead won about a quarter of the white vote overall, and around half of young white voters, on his way to a commanding 55% of the total vote (Clinton finished second with roughly 27% and Edwards came in third with 18%). The excitement around Obama's candidacy pushed turnout to record levels — a kind of surge, says Obama strategist Cornell Belcher, that "is something only Barack Obama is capable of bringing to the table."
It is a powerful message for the Illinois Senator to take into the Super Tuesday round of primaries on February 5. "In nine days-nine short days — nearly half the nation will have the chance to join us in saying that we are tired of business-as-usual in Washington, we are hungry for change, and we are ready to believe again," Obama declared. His South Carolina victory will be topped by an endorsement by Caroline Kennedy, in a Sunday New York Times op-ed headlined: "A President Like My Father." The move will serve as a powerful, symbolic counter to the most visible surrogate in this race, Bill Clinton — the boy whose own political awakening famously came when he shook JFK's hand as a 16-year-old as part of an American Legion Boy's Nation visit to the nation's capital.
Still, the sobering reality for the Obama campaign is that Clinton's massive organization will present a formidable challenge in the 20-plus states that will be voting on February 5. Clinton, knowing that bad news was coming, didn't even hold a final rally for her supporters in South Carolina; shortly after the polls closed, her campaign plane was headed for Tennessee. She issued a terse written statement noting that she had called Obama to "wish him well," and adding, "We now turn our attention to the millions of Americans who will make their voices heard in Florida and the twenty-two states as well as American Samoa who will vote on February 5th." Bill Clinton, at a rally in Missouri, added: "Now we go to February 5, when millions of Americans finally get in the act."
The former President was actually the first Clinton to speak in the wake of Obama's triumph Saturday evening, and it only underscored how his outsized, vocal presence on the trail has threatened to overshadow his wife. Earlier in the day, Clinton had churlishly compared Obama's victory to that of Jesse Jackson in 1984 and 1988, a remark that will likely further fuel disaffection about the Clintons amongst African-American voters. There was evidence that Obama's victory was also a repudiation of the brand of hard-knuckled politics that both Clintons had brought to the South Carolina contest. Exit polls indicated that Bill Clinton's campaigning made a difference to about 6 in 10 South Carolina Democratic primary voters. But of those voters, 47% went for Barack Obama, while only 38% went for Hillary Clinton. Fourteen percent voted for John Edwards. The Obama campaign gleefully noted that in the mostly black precincts that Bill Clinton visted in Greenville, as much as 80% of the vote went to Obama.
- posted on 01/27/2008
% of total Obama Clinton Edwards
43 White 24 36 40
55 Black 78 19 2
奥巴马在南卡的胜利,正是所谓“福兮祸所倚”。看看上面的统计,南卡是黑人州,投票人黑人占半数以上。黑人投奥巴马的占78%,白人只有24%。这是奥巴马最不想看到的结果。虽然比输掉要好,但他更想得到白人的选票。南卡的选举结果有可能把奥巴马定义为黑人的代表,使他更加不为白人所接受。
克林顿应该很满意这个结果。南卡是参议员爱德华兹的故乡,北方的洋基克林顿却跟他基本平分白人的选票。 - posted on 01/28/2008
Kennedy Will Endorse Obama In Blow to Clinton
By Shailagh Murray and Anne E. Kornblut
Washington Post Staff Writers
Monday, January 28, 2008; A01
BIRMINGHAM, Ala., Jan. 27 -- Seeking to build on his landslide win in Saturday's South Carolina primary, Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) will receive the endorsement of Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) in Washington on Monday, sources close to both men said Sunday night.
The Kennedy stamp of approval was one of the most sought-after prizes of the Democratic nomination battle, and it represents a coup for the Illinois senator, adding an establishment seal of approval to what began a year ago as a long-shot White House bid. Obama had cultivated Kennedy's support for months. So had Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.), who along with her husband, former president Bill Clinton, had pressed Kennedy in recent days to at least remain neutral.
Kennedy's decision came after weeks of his rising frustration with the Clintons over campaign tactics, particularly comments by the couple and their surrogates in South Carolina that seemed to carry racial overtones. Kennedy expressed his frustrations directly to the former president, but to no avail. He came to his endorsement decision over the past week, after speaking to numerous family members, especially younger ones, and gave Obama the word on Thursday, people familiar with the endorsement said.
Kennedy, a liberal icon revered by Democratic Party faithful, is scheduled to appear with Obama at American University's Bender Arena, campaign sources said. The veteran senator will be joined by his niece, Caroline Kennedy, who announced her support for Obama on Sunday in a New York Times op-ed in which she compared Obama to her late father, John F. Kennedy.
Clinton, meanwhile, will try to rebound from her defeat Saturday by barnstorming a number of states that will vote Feb. 5 before traveling to Florida on Tuesday night to attend what her campaign expects will be a victory party after that state's primary. The Democratic contest is not being recognized by national party officials, and the candidates pledged not to campaign there, but Clinton's campaign is still hoping for a public relations bump from the results in the state.
"I'm running to be the president of our entire country, and hundreds of thousands of people have already voted in Florida, and I want them to know that I will be there on Tuesday to be part of what they have tried to do, to make sure their voices are heard," Clinton said Sunday.
The Democratic National Committee has said it will not seat Florida's delegates to the national convention this summer because the state moved up its primary in violation of party rules, which were established to prevent a mad scramble among states to move up the nominating calendar. Clinton is seeking to have those delegates recognized, along with those of Michigan, which also ignored DNC rules by holding an early primary. She traveled to Sarasota and Miami on Sunday, although for fundraisers, not technically the kind of campaign appearances that all the candidates have promised not to hold.
Clinton's last-minute play for Florida was an audacious move, and one that Obama chose not to answer with his own lap around a state that could prove important should its large slate of delegates ultimately be counted, as many Democrats expect.
"I know that all the candidates made a pledge that we would campaign in the early states and not campaign in Florida and Michigan," Obama told reporters aboard his campaign plane Sunday en route from Macon, Ga., to Birmingham. "I will abide by the promise I made earlier that I will not campaign in Florida."
Kennedy has watched Obama closely since Illinois elected him to the Senate in 2004, and he seriously considered backing Obama when he won Iowa on Jan. 3, according to a senior Democratic source close to Kennedy who spoke on the condition of anonymity. Obama had sought Kennedy's advice more than a year ago, when he was deciding whether to jump into the 2008 race. Kennedy urged him to go ahead, arguing that such opportunities come around rarely.
Still, Kennedy had resolved to stay neutral in this year's presidential campaign, in large part because his old friend Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-Conn.) was a candidate, the source said. After Obama's convincing Iowa win, however, Kennedy came to see Obama as a potentially historic candidate, an African American able to connect across racial lines and to inspire young voters. He coordinated his announcement with Caroline Kennedy, with the two agreeing that she would break the ice with the Times piece.
After the news of the endorsement broke, the Clinton campaign distributed a statement from Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the daughter of Robert F. Kennedy and a former Maryland lieutenant governor. "I respect Caroline and Teddy's decision but I have made a different choice," she said, noting that "my brother Bobby, my sister Kerry, and I are supporting Hillary Clinton."
Obama traveled Sunday to Birmingham, where an estimated 9,000 supporters cheered him as he spoke for more than an hour. "Our states are very similar," said Rep. Artur Davis (D-Ala.), an Obama supporter, comparing Alabama and South Carolina. "Barack hasn't been here as much, but we've got 28 points to play with," Davis said, referring to Obama's South Carolina victory margin.
Obama beat Clinton by more than 2 to 1 in the Palmetto State, with 295,000 votes. The rout closed out the first phase of Obama's campaign on a high note. But even the candidate conceded that daunting challenges await as he pivoted to a 22-state playing field with just nine days to build support.
His campaign hopes that Kennedy's backing will help Obama to cultivate Hispanics, older voters, and traditional Democrats like union members, groups that have not proven his strongest in the first four contests. But campaigning on tarmacs, with television cameras as his main audience, does not match Obama's grass-roots style. And Clinton, Obama acknowledged, continues to enjoy the built-in advantage of national name recognition, despite her setback in South Carolina.
"It presents more of a challenge for us -- I don't think there's any doubt about it," Obama said in his plane on the way to Alabama. "What we have seen in the first four contests is that the more people know me, the better I do. In Iowa, we had huge amounts of time and we were able to win across the board. In these other early states like South Carolina, people have had a lot of interaction with our organizers. Here we are going to have to work with a much more compressed schedule."
Former senator John Edwards (D-N.C.), coming off a third-place finish in South Carolina, has vowed to remain in the contest despite not making a strong showing since the Democrats' initial test in Iowa, where he finished second to Obama. Fred Baron, Edwards's top fundraiser and a close adviser, said financial backers believe in his candidacy "passionately" and have promised to work to keep his bid afloat. Baron said January has been Edwards's best month of fundraising over the Internet, and that he has brought in $3.2 million this month.
Though badly stung by her defeat, Clinton appeared determined, if subdued, when she faced reporters Sunday morning in Memphis. She smiled little, showing few of the flashes of enjoyment that she had shown after her New Hampshire and Nevada victories.
Clinton addressed her husband's increasingly controversial role in her campaign and disputed the notion that he has added to divisions within the Democratic Party, calling him someone who "brought our country together" when he was president. He was, Clinton asserted, a president who sought to "repair the breaches and mend the divides" between blacks and whites.
"I think Americans from every community know what his life's work has been," Clinton told reporters.
Staff writer Matthew Mosk contributed to this report.
- Re: Obama's South Carolina Rout Rejiggers the Raceposted on 01/28/2008
81教授,我却认为24%已经很不简单了,significant。比起其他两人的黑人选民的比例,不在一个量级上。如果不是负面广告的影响以及不得不进行的反驳,OBAMA就可能不失去10%的白人选票。谢谢这个数据,我正纳闷呢。 - posted on 02/04/2008
Maria Shriver endorses Obama
Published: 2/3/08, 11:00 PM EDT
LOS ANGELES, California (CNN) - California first lady Maria Shriver on Sunday endorsed Sen. Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for president, becoming the latest member of the Kennedy clan to line up behind the senator from Illinois.
Shriver, the wife of California Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, told supporters at an Obama rally in Los Angeles that the state was "at the epicenter of change." California's primary is the largest of about two dozen contests scheduled for this week's Super Tuesday contest.
"I would ask you to go out, to follow your heart, to be proud that you're doing that, and remember that so goes California, so goes the nation," she said.
Shriver is the niece of Massachusetts Sen. Edward Kennedy and President Kennedy. Both his daughter, Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, and the Massachusetts senator have endorsed Obama in the past week. During Sunday's event, Schlossberg appeared with Shriver, Obama's wife, Michelle, and talk-show host Oprah Winfrey. Watch Shriver describe Obama
"I'm proud to be standing here not just with these women, but with all of you -- different races, different age groups I'm sure, Democrats and independents alike -- because you believe," she said. "You believe in each and every one of yourselves, most importantly. And you believe that you have found someone who believes in you."
Members of the Kennedy clan are split in the race between Obama and Hillary Clinton, the New York senator and former first lady who leads published polls in California.
Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the daughter of Robert Kennedy, and her brother Bobby and sister Kerry are backing Clinton.
- posted on 02/04/2008
兼听则明. 这篇说肯尼迪挺奥是“私”字一闪念。
Why Ted Kennedy Didn't Endorse Clinton
Washington Post: Hillary Clinton's Comments On LBJ Infuriated Liberal Icon
There's more to Sen. Edward Kennedy's endorsement of Barack Obama than meets the eye. Apparently, part of the reason why the liberal lion from Massachusetts embraced Obama was because of a perceived slight at the Kennedy family's civil rights legacy by the other Democratic presidential primary frontrunner, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.).
Sources say Kennedy was privately furious at Clinton for her praise of President Lyndon Baines Johnson for getting the 1964 Civil Rights Act accomplished. Jealously guarding the legacy of the Kennedy family dynasty, Senator Kennedy felt Clinton's LBJ comments were an implicit slight of his brother, President John F. Kennedy, who first proposed the landmark civil rights initiative in a famous televised civil rights address in June 1963.
One anonymous source described Kennedy as having a "meltdown" in reaction to Clinton's comments. Another source close to the Kennedy family says Senator Kennedy was upset about two instances that occurred on a single day of campaigning in New Hampshire on Jan. 7, a day before the state's primary.
The first was at an event in Dover, N.H., at which Clinton supporter Francine Torge introduced the former first lady saying, "Some people compare one of the other candidates to John F. Kennedy. But he was assassinated. And Lyndon Baines Johnson was the one who actually" signed the civil rights bill into law.
The Kennedy insider says Senator Kennedy was deeply offended that Clinton remained silent and "sat passively by" rather than correcting the record on his slain brother's civil rights record.
Kennedy was also apparently upset that Clinton said on the same day: "Dr. [Martin Luther] King's dream began to be realized when President Johnson passed the Civil Rights Ac. It took a president to get it done."
Both comments that day, by Clinton and her supporter, were meant to make the point that Clinton would be better equipped to get things done as president than Obama, her chief Democratic rival. Sources say Clinton called Kennedy to apologize for the LBJ comments. But whatever she said clearly wasn't enough to assuage Kennedy, who endorsed Obama earlier this week.
Kennedy insiders say the Massachusetts senator has also been angry with former President Bill Clinton for his "Southern strategy" themed comments on the campaign trail. The senator didn't hide his disdain for the nasty tone of the campaign during his endorsement speech at American University on Monday.
Kennedy's spokeswoman, Melissa Wagoner, would neither confirm nor deny that the senator was angered by Senator Clinton's LBJ comments. She simply said: "Senator Kennedy knows that candidates can't always be responsible for the things their supporters say. He's proud of President Kennedy's role in the civil rights movement, and believes that it's time to unify and inspire Americans to believe we can achieve great things again."
The Clinton campaign hasn't responded yet to our evening-time request for comment on Clinton's telephone apology to Kennedy. On the day of the LBJ rhetoric, however, a Clinton campaign spokesman was quoted on the New York Times' politics blog distancing Clinton from the surrogate who made the inappropriate assassination comment.
By Mary Ann Akers
© 2008 The Washington Post Company
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 02/04/2008
这帮肯尼迪还真把自己当回事儿哈。
- Re: Maria Shriver endorses Obamaposted on 02/04/2008
I don't see why Teddy shoudn't behave the way he behaved. After all, politics is a fusion of self-interests and public concern. Who is in the game only for others? I do think Hilary can accomplolish something under Obama. Obama does his day-dream, Hilary does the leg-work and Bill does something else. ;)
wukong wrote:
兼听则明. 这篇说肯尼迪挺奥是“私”字一闪念。
- Re: Maria Shriver endorses Obamaposted on 11/07/2008
ti - Re: Maria Shriver endorses Obamaposted on 11/07/2008
今天读了一篇文章,其实,4年前肯尼迪就看上了奥巴马,奥巴马刚当上国会议员,在波士顿克瑞的竞选上讲话,让肯尼迪非常欣赏,就让他出来run, 奥巴马的太太刚开始不同意,说孩子太小,危险太大。
- Re: Obama wins Iowa as candidate for changeposted on 11/07/2008
He will change his mind when the made-in-China toys are safe. For China or against China should be the measure of a good leader. Don't you think?
guanzhong wrote:
I like him better than Clinton, but he said he would ban all toys made in China... - posted on 11/07/2008
The issue of Chinese toys is of course not that important (many of the toy companies are closed anyway), but it is representative of some larger issues between the two countries, such as US-Sino trade deficit. Many people, on both sides of the Pacific, realize China may benefit more from a McCain administration.
Actually, old Mao realized this several decades ago, he liked republicans much better than democrats, that is why he said “我喜欢右派”.
But I don't think it makes much difference in the end. W was very rough on China when he first entered the White House. But he learned a lot over the years. Obama will too.
- posted on 11/07/2008
老瓦 wrote:
据咖啡数据库不完全统计,选民意向分布如下:
图扯、管中、老A、苦瓜、玛雅选T恤模特,令胡冲选妇联主任,xw选山大王,笨笨选超女, 99教授选瘦妹,阿姗、鹿希选649,老面选梦中情人,小曼选法国总统,苏三选模范邻居,浮生选工会主席,July选未来女婿。。。。。。
都德说得对,外行看大选(general),内行看初选(primary),比如我们红脖子州的选民,到了大选阶段,选票只投共和党,不管民主党派谁出阵,美女帅哥都无关。所以我觉得,希拉里、奥巴马赢了初选就是胜利,但是到了大选,他们肯定输,民主党选民们还是从长计议的好。
复习这个老帖,发现居然我老早就总结过了。对比大选结果来看,近十个月来奥巴马阵营基本在做无用功,因为咖啡粉他的人,当时就打定主意从一而终了;不粉他的ID,立场也几乎没改变。 - posted on 11/08/2008
这个故事当时是我讲的,不是故意匿名,是把标题写错了位置,结果成了名字,也没法改。前几天还收到这个房客的邮件,说自己已经从法学院毕业了,正在前往洛杉矶出任联邦法官的职位,请我在新房东面前美言几句。
每次想起来这个房客都觉得对美国多一份信心,还是有年轻、健康的孩子们成长起来,投身到社会的核心部门去工作,让这个系统比较稳定地延续。房客当时的职位是speech writer的头儿,他们是一伙儿人一起完成这个工作。那个候选人不是太能写,所以这些写手们担子沉一些。据说奥巴马的情况是,若不是实在忙,他完全不需要别人来写稿子,事实上最重要的讲话他都是自己写的。但是讲话活动太多,他需要一些帮助,还是雇佣了一个写作班子,主笔是他自己定的。这些人一般都很年轻有活力。
另外,看到年初xw还说我不常发言,现在回头看,都快成话痨了(有谁参加竞选,是否需要speech writer?:)。年终总结的时候我得用力反省一下。
讲个小故事吧 wrote:
竞选是一种社会运作的方式,当机器做好了之后,挑选看管机器的人的过程就是竞选。跟选超女和真人秀有些类似。
前年家里来了一个房客,年轻得像一个高中生,据说正在上法学院,被州长竞选人选中当竞选演说的执笔人。他所代表的竞选人是民主党的候选人,我们家没有民主党。谈完价钱等事宜之后,我家家长告诉男孩儿:我是共和党的支持者,你住在这儿可要小心,到了竞选的关键时候,我可能会给你找麻烦。男孩儿灿烂地一笑:我爸爸是也共和党,但他是92年克林顿参选总统时北加州竞选总部的负责人。啊哈,党派之争早就不是什么障碍了。接下来,好奇地问男孩儿是如何被选来做笔杆子的,男孩儿说:叔叔看着我长大的,就被选上了。原来是大院儿里长大的。
那是我们第一次出租房子,男孩儿帮我们修订租房协议,很认真,还提了不少建议,勾勾画画的。我问他,你还真每个字都读啊?男孩儿说:否则我的老师会失望的。
男孩儿的办公室里有一大群跟他年龄、经历相仿的大孩子,他们的竞选旗号是环保、绿色。孩子们自身也有一种环保、绿色环境里长大的新鲜、清醇感。当时就觉得这也太缥缈了,连我这亲绿党者也不以为他们能成事儿。可是资金、机会和挑战都不打盹儿地涌向这些孩子。男孩儿签和约的时候提出两种方案,若是初选得胜,就一直租到大选,否则就半道搬走。
后来他半道搬走了。临走前问了一下选情,好像对那孩子也没什么负面影响,大概只是经历了一次小小的锻炼。
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 11/08/2008
老瓦 wrote:
复习这个老帖,发现居然我老早就总结过了。对比大选结果来看,近十个月来奥巴马阵营基本在做无用功,因为咖啡粉他的人,当时就打定主意从一而终了;不粉他的ID,立场也几乎没改变。
:)
- Re: Go! Obama!posted on 11/08/2008
I owe Old Gadfly an apology on this - it looks like I am a little bit older than my age on the forum. :)
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